Sunday, April 10, 2016

Weekend Estimates: Melissa McCarthy is 'The Boss', 'Batman v Superman' Continues Falling Off and 'Henry' Doesn't Go 'Hardcore'

     On the second slowest weekend of the year, 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' relinquished the top spot to a much lower-profile, more light-hearted film.
     Continuing Melissa McCarthy's streak of $20m+ openers, the $29-million comedy 'The Boss' exceeded most expectations and opened to a solid $23.6 million for a $6.8k per-theater average. That opening is slightly better than the 2014 R-rated comedy 'Tammy', which debuted to $21.6 million (although it should be noted 'Tammy' opened on a Wednesday). While it fell behind the likes of 'Identity Thief' ($34.6m), 'The Heat' ($39.1m), and 'Spy' ($29.1m), it was never really expected to match those films given that the premise seemed less accessible than those titles. This is just more proof that Melissa McCarthy is one of the more consistent box office leads in recent years, as very few actors or actresses can maintain a healthy streak of $20m+ openings. However, her drawing power is sure to be tested in July when the 'Ghostbusters' reboot opens, and with the trailer receiving overwhelmingly negative reaction, it's definitely going to be important to see how that one plays.
     On Friday 'The Boss' earned $8.1 million, increased 20.5% on Saturday to gross $9.8 million, and fell 41.3% on Sunday to make $5.7 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.91-to-1, which is behind 'Identity Thief' (3.12-to-1) and 'Tammy' (3.38-to-1) but an improvement over 'The Heat' (2.85-to-1) and 'Spy' (2.83-to-1). However, while those films were exceptionally leggy in the long run, 'The Boss' will have to put up with horrible reviews (17% on RT) and mixed word-of-mouth (50% Flixter rating as well as a 'C+' CinemaScore). Obviously, the closest comparison here is 'Tammy', which scored a 23% Tomatometer and a 37% Flixter score to go along with its 'C+' CinemaScore but managed to rake in $84.5 million total for a 3.91x multiplier. Should 'The Boss' play similar to 'Tammy', it could possibly get over $90 million. While that certainly is a possibility (there is a significant difference between Flixter scores), critical reviews might hold off the more casual moviegoers instead of McCarthy's established fanbase. Still, it's hard imagining this not getting past $70 million, but $100 million is certainly out of the question.
     'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' continued falling off sharply this weekend, this time dropping 54.5% for $23.4 million. For the sake of comparisons, that third weekend gross is less than 'Furious 7''s $29.2 million (-51.1%) and 'Iron Man 3''s $35.8 million (-50.7%). Poor critical reception and middling word-of-mouth keep on affecting the $250-million comic book adaptation's staying power, both here and overseas. Its $296.6 million is nothing to be ashamed of though, and with $784.3 million worldwide already, it should turn into a profit. Still, at this point predicting a $370 million total would be going to high, and at this rate it is likely the film will fall short of $950 million total.
     On the bright side, 'Zootopia' held steady again, falling just 25.8% for $14.3 million. That is the eighth biggest sixth weekend on record, and outpaces the $7.4 million sixth weekend of last year's 'Inside Out'. With a strong $296 million in the bank so far, $340 million is a guarantee at this point. 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' took a hit from 'The Boss' this weekend, falling 42.3% to gross $6.5 million. Its domestic cume is now up to $46.8 million, and should make it to $65 million before the end of its run.
     In a softer-than-expected fifth place, the $10-million first-person actioner 'Hardcore Henry' made a paltry $5.1 million for a weak $1.7k PTA. That marks the lowest start for distributor STX Entertainment, falling behind the $6.7 million of November bomb 'The Secret in their Eyes' and making up less than half of the studio's hits 'The Gift' ($11.9m) and 'The Boy' ($10.8m). Expectations ranged from $7m-$10m, making this performance even less impressive. It was always a risky move with its first-person aspect, but it ultimately failed to get its target audience (gamers) to get up off the couch and purchase a movie ticket. STX will hope to redeem itself with the June releases 'The Bye Bye Man' and 'Free State of Jones'.
     Opening on Friday with $2 million, 'Henry' fell 7.1% on Saturday to earn $1.9 million and declined 33.3% for $1.2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is an discouraging 2.55-to-1. With mixed reviews (51% on RT) and word-of-mouth ('C+' CinemaScore), it should make less than $15 million total.
     The Top 12 this weekend grossed a lackluster $95.1 million, down 22.6% from last weekend and 24.3% from last year when 'Furious 7' repeated in first while 'The Longest Ride' and 'Ex Machina' opened. Next weekend will be much busier, with the big-budget remake of the animated classic 'The Jungle Book' looking to take the top spot while 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' will go up against 'The Boss' for the top comedy and the action thriller 'Criminal' will hope to provide solid counter-programming against all of those films. 

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