Weekend Estimates: Audiences Go Wild for 'The Jungle Book' and Pay a Visit to the 'Barbershop' While 'Criminal' is Missed

     Coming off of one of the slowest weekends of the year, Disney's big-budget fantasy remake of the 1967 animated classic 'The Jungle Book' easily made the box office rebound, instead delivering one of the year's biggest weekends.
     Taking first place by storm was the $175-million fantasy remake 'The Jungle Book', which brought in a massive $103.6 million for a robust $25.7k per-theater average. That is Disney's second largest opening in its library of live-action remakes of animated classics, besting 'Oz the Great and Powerful' ($79.1m), 'Maleficent' ($69.4m), and 'Cinderella' ($67.9m) and only falling behind the massive breakout success of 2010's 'Alice in Wonderland' ($116.1m). Riding a wave of solid marketing and incredible reviews going into the weekend as well as more four-quadrant appeal than similar titles, 'Jungle Book' was always going to be a big hit. However, not even the most optimistic of expectations could predict the family-friendly adventure would get this high. It also marks the second biggest April opening of all time, ahead of 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' ($95m) and behind 'Furious 7' ($147.2m). It's also the 32nd biggest opening overall, between 'X-Men: The Last Stand' ($102.8m) and 'Shrek 2' ($108m). Among the fantasy genre, it ranks fourth, ahead of 'Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire' ($102.7m) and 'Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban' ($93.7m) and surpassing the lifetime grosses of 'Bridge to Terabithia' and 'The Sorcerer's Apprentice'.

     Opening with $32.4 million on Friday (including $4.2m from Thursday), 'Jungle Book' rose a significant 26.9% on Saturday and earned $41.1 million, and will fall a slim 27% on Sunday to gross $30 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 3.20-to-1, beating 'Alice' (2.85x), 'Maleficent' (2.86x), and 'Cinderella' (2.95x). With much stronger reviews (95% on RT) and word-of-mouth (92% Flixter score and 'A' CinemaScore), 'Jungle Book' should hold up much stronger than those titles (save for 'Maleficent', which managed to display unusually strong holding power despite middling reviews and word-of-mouth). Still, for the sake of comparison, a multiplier similar to 'Alice' (2.87x) would get it to $297 million while one similar to either 'Oz' or 'Cinderella' (2.96x) would mean a total of $306 million. If it can replicate the legs of 'Maleficent' (3.48x), 'Jungle Book' will wind up with over $360 million. While that certainly is a possibility, it's less likely to happen than if 'Jungle Book' turns out to be quite front-loaded, even with the stellar reception. Outside of the remakes, 'Pirates of the Caribbean' and 'Indiana Jones' seem good for comparison. The second one opened with a then record-breaking $135.6 million and went on to earn $423.3 million, representing a 3.12x multiplier. If 'Jungle Book' plays similar to that, it could get close to $325 million. 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' debuted to $100.1 million in 2008 and ended its run with $317.1 million, producing a 3.17x multiplier, which in turn would get 'Jungle Book' close to $330 million. All of those numbers are very solid, and all set a new standard for Disney's live-action remakes of animated classics. Overall, I think $330m+ is very likely to happen.

     In a distant but mostly solid second place, the $20-million ensemble led comedy threequel 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' opened with $20.2 million for a respectable $7.6k per-theater average. Coming out 12 years after the last installment in the 'Barbershop' series (11 counting its spin-off, 'Beauty Shop'), expectations were kept in check for 'Next Cut' with projections ranging from $15m-$25m, but as the weekend approached predictions went as high as $30 million due to the stronger-than-expected reviews. While it failed to break out beyond the genre norm, it still performed quite well given that comedy sequels with massive gaps between release dates usually underwhelm or come in much lower than its predecessors. Such examples are 2014's 'Dumb and Dumber To' ($86.2m compared to the first's $127.2m) and February's 'Zoolander 2' ($28.8m compared to the first's $45.2m), and fortunately 'Barbershop' managed to avoid their fates. Instead, it played very similarly to the first 'Barbershop', which opened to $20.6 million back in 2002. Adjusted for inflation, though, its performance is much less impressive.
     On Friday, the PG-13 rated comedy opened with $7.1 million (including $735k from Thursday night), increased a healthy 16.6% on Saturday to earn 8.2 million, and should fall 39.9% on Sunday for $4.9 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is 2.85-to-1, or better than the 2.54-to-1 ratio of 'Dumb and Dumber To'. That film ultimately made $86.2 million in the long run. While 'Next Cut' will likely fail to top that number, much stronger reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth (78% Flixter rating and 'A-' CinemaScore) should propel it with much better legs. A total of at least $55 million is likely for the mid-budget comedy.

     In third and fourth, critical duds 'The Boss' and 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' fell off sharply. The former took in $10.2 million, down an unimpressive 56.9% from its better-than-expected opening. So far, the $29-million R-rated comedy has grossed $40.4 million and will look to be star Melissa McCarthy's most front-loaded film yet. However, it should still make a profit against its modest price tag and will likely end its run with around $65 million. Meanwhile, the latter slid even more, dropping a steep 61.4% from last weekend and raking in $9 million. With $311.3 million in the bank, the $250-million superhero tentpole has displayed horrible holding power, and will probably barely double its opening, which calls to mind the 2009 superhero movie 'Watchmen', which couldn't even do just that. With 'Huntsman: Winter's War' raiding theaters next weekend and brutal competition in May that features the likes of 'Captain America: Civil War' and 'X-Men: Apocalypse', it should continue to fall off quickly. At this rate, it's unlikely it will reach $350 million domestically.
     The $150-million animated hit 'Zootopia' held up well in the shadow of 'Jungle Book', slipping 42.6% and making $8.2 million. 'Zootopia' has grossed a very impressive $307.5 million, and, with the debut of 'Jungle Book' behind, will likely continue holding up well through the rest of April and possibly through May until 'The Angry Birds Movie' debuts. $335 million should be a lock at this point.

     In a disappointing sixth place, the $31.5-million action thriller 'Criminal' flopped with just $5.9 million. Unfortunately, the all-star cast and thought-provoking premise weren't enough to convince most audiences to pay for the violent R-rated film, and terrible reviews probably didn't help. This debut calls to mind similar duds like last July's 'Self/Less', which opened to a terrible $5.4 million on a $26 million budget, and February's 'Triple 9', which debuted to an awful $6.1 million on a $20-million budget. Obviously, 'Criminal' is much less impressive than those titles given the much stronger cast and bigger budget.
     Kicking things off with a $2.1 million Friday debut (including $235k), 'Criminal' rose 11.7% on Saturday for $2.3 million and is expected to drop 35.2% on Sunday for $1.5 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.81-to-1, which is worse than the 2.90-to-1 ratio of 'Triple 9' but better than the 2.70-to-1 ratio of 'Self/Less'. With bad critical reception (26% on RT) and middling word-of-mouth ('B-' CinemaScore and 60% Flixter score), the legs on this one seem to be very short. It shouldn't make much more than $15 million total.
     'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' eased 49.7% from last weekend, grossing $3.3 million. The $18-million romantic comedy sequel has so far grossed a solid $52.1 million, and should cross $60 million before the end of its run. 'Miracles from Heaven' placed in eighth, plummeting 59.6% after losing 730 locations this weekend. The $13-million faith-based drama made $1.9 million, adding on to its $56.9 million cume. $65 million total should be in reach by now. Meanwhile, fellow faith-based drama 'God's Not Dead 2' continued its underwhelming run, falling 59.6% for $1.7 million. Its total now stands at an unimpressive $17 million, but with its $5 million budget it doesn't really matter if it fell below expectations. It should inch past $20 million before it disappears from theaters.
     'Eye in the Sky' held fairly steady, dropping a solid 46.1% and making $1.6 million. The military thriller starring Helen Mirren has so far made $13.1 million, and $20 million might still be a possibility. Meanwhile, 'Hardcore Henry' plummeted an absolutely awful 71% from its already terrible opening, making just $1.5 million. Soft word-of-mouth ('C+' CinemaScore) and a general lack of appeal is likely the reason the $10-million first-person action film is getting crushed. and with only $8.2 million so far $15 million is no longer a guarantee.
     Rounding out the Top 12, 'The Divergent Series: Allegiant' continued its disappointing run, making $1.3 million and falling 63%.  The $110-million YA sequel has made just $63.9 million through five weeks of play, and should ultimately cross $75 million before the end of its run.
     The Top 12 this weekend grossed an outstanding $168.3 million, up a whopping 76.6% from last weekend's lackluster total and up a promising 50.2% from last year when 'Furious 7' three-peated in first while 'Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2', 'Unfriended', and 'Monkey Kingdom' had modest debuts while 'True Story' bombed.
     Next weekend, 'The Jungle Book' should have no problem fending off newcomers 'The Huntsman: Winter's War' and 'Elvis & Nixon' to remain in first place. The former looks to have a quiet debut in second, as it seems to be in theaters at the wrong time, being sandwiched between 'Jungle Book' and 'Captain America' and all. Meanwhile, not much is expected from 'Elvis & Nixon', which might find itself in fourth or fifth place.