Weekend Forecast: 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' to Take Flight, Audiences Take a 'Vacation'

     Two popular franchises return this weekend with 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' and 'Vacation' set to rule the box office, although the latter is underwhelming so far.
      Coming off the strongly received 'Ghost Protocol', the fifth installment of the spy franchise is set to earn around $45 million for the three-day weekend, though there is a possibility it can overcome that number.

     First off, the 'Mission: Impossible' franchise is a very strong one, with top performers including 'Mission: Impossible II' ($215.4m) and the aforementioned 'Ghost Protocol' ($209.4m), and not to mention the spy genre overall, with recent hits like 'Skyfall' ($304.4m) and 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($128.3m). The marketing has been great too, especially the event where some customers at a shopping center getting an opportunity to prove themselves as worthy IMF agents. Reviews are very positive as well, with a stellar 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a promising 8.2/10 rating on IMDb.
     However, not everything is working in favor with 'Rogue Nation'. One factor going against the film is Tom Cruise's drawing power, which has somewhat faded over recent years. His most recent films are sci-fi misfires that include 'Oblivion' ($89.1m cume to $120m budget) and 'Edge of
Tomorrow' ($100.2m cume to $178m budget). He also starred in the flop known as 'Rock of Ages' ($38.5m cume to $75m budget). It also doesn't help that the summer has already been filled with big-budget action flicks ('Mad Max: Fury Road' with $151.9m and 'Terminator Genysis' with $86.8m), and audiences who are tired of those films will probably look over this. Still, it is likely the $150m Tom Cruise led action flick will have enough good will from the previous installment to earn over $50 million this weekend.
     The weekend's other new release, 'Vacation', will serve as counter-programming. It is the fifth theatrical release in the popular comedy franchise. It opened on Wednesday, earning an underwhelming $3.8 million and went on to make $2.5 million on Thursday, with a total of $6.3 million so far. That is significantly below pre-release expectations, and way behind similar road trip comedy 'We're the Millers', which debuted to a much better $6.8 million on Wednesday and went on to earn $26.4 million for the three-day weekend and a $37.9 million five-day start. Reviews are in the cellar (a terrible 23% on Rotten Tomatoes, and word-of-mouth isn't something the studio would be too happy about (a 'B' rating on CinemaScore). If 'Vacation' plays like 'We're the Millers', it will wind up with $14.7 million three-day and $21.2 million five-day. That would still be a fairly solid start, costing just $31 million, but is still disappointing.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation': $52.4 million

2. 'Vacation': $15.2 million (3-day); $22.3 million (5-day)

3. 'Ant-Man': $15.3 million (-38.6%) 

4. 'Pixels': $10.7 million (-55.4%)

5. 'Minions': $10.6 million (-53.7%)

'Pixels' Beat by 'Ant-Man', 'Southpaw' Packs Punch, 'Paper Towns' Opens Softly

     In a surprising turn of events, 'Ant-Man' led the box office for the second time this weekend, with disappointing newcomer 'Pixels' following closely. Fellow new release 'Southpaw' opened above expectations while 'Paper Towns' did the opposite.
     'Ant-Man' fell 56.5% from opening weekend to earn $24.9 million. That second weekend hold is an improvement over the 60.1% drop of 'The Incredible Hulk' and the 60.7% decline of 'Captain America: The First Avenger'. However, that drop is worse than the drop experienced by Thor (-47.2%) and the 48.1% drop of Iron Man. The solo film from Marvel is so far experiencing unremarkable holds, as it is performing on the lower end of expectations. 'Ant-Man' has so far earned $106.2 million and is on track for over $160 million.

     'Pixels' led the newcomers this weekend with an unimpressive $24 million debut. That translates into a weak $6,450 per-theater average from 3,723 locations. This opening was well below pre-release expectations, with projections going as high as $57 million. Unfortunately, 'Pixels' opened below even the most pessimistic predictions, opening lower than 2011's 'Jack and Jill' ($25m OW/$74.2m cume) and barely beating Kevin James' most recent film 'Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2' ($23.8m OW/$70.96m cume). This film provides further proof that Adam Sandler is no longer a box office draw, whose only hits in the last 3 years are 'Hotel Transylvania' ($148.3m cume) and 'Grown Ups 2' ($133.7m cume). 'Transylvania', however was an animated film that opened in September (usually one of the weakest months of the year), and 'Grown Ups 2' was a sequel to a relatively popular film. 'Pixels' underperformed this weekend, and if it doesn't hold up well in the upcoming weeks, it will have a hard time making back its budget ($88m) domestically and will need overseas grosses to save it. However, Adam Sandler movies tend to be relatively back-loaded. Still, the reviews are brutal (18% on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences aren't really having a great time either ('B' on CinemaScore). In the long run, look for a gross of over $60 million total.
     In third place, Universal's animated blockbuster 'Minions' fell a (comparatively) sharp 53.5% for a $22.9 million take in its third weekend. It is performing rather front-loaded, with weaker holds than its predecessors and similar animated spin-offs. However, it is still a big hit, with a budget of just $74 million (Pixar films usually cost over $150 million). 'Minions' has so far made a huge $262.5 million, surpassing the lifetime gross of the first 'Despicable Me' ($251.5m). It should pass $300 million in the next two weeks, and will likely wind up with a total domestic cume north of $340 million.
     Judd Apatow's R-rated comedy 'Trainwreck' eased a light 42.6% in its second weekend, bringing in $17.3 million. That is a weaker hold than most of Apatow's other comedies, but is still a pretty good hold considering it (somewhat) faced competition from 'Paper Towns', which also targeted female audiences, and 'Pixels', which attracted male audiences and looked for comedy fans, so it made sense that 'Trainwreck' had a weaker hold. The Amy Schumer led comedy has so far earned a stellar $61.5 million, and should finish with around $115 million.

     One of the other newcomers this weekend rounded out the Top 5 with $16.7 million. That number belongs to boxing drama 'Southpaw', starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Rachel McAdams. That is above many of the pre-release expectations, which projected an opening weekend of $14 million. The R-rated drama significantly outpaced Gyllenhaal's 'Nightcrawler', which opened to $10.4 million last October. However, it is worthy to note that that film opened on Halloween Day, therefore holding back its gross a bit. Nevertheless, 'Southpaw' opened strong, and if it holds up well in the following weeks, it will end up with a total over $55 million.

     'Paper Towns' opened right outside the Top 5 this weekend, earning an underwhelming $12.7 million. That is a small fraction of what 'The Fault in our Stars' opened to last June ($48m). It was very, very front-loaded this weekend, with a weekend-to-Friday ratio of 2.02-to-1. It opened to a decent $6.3 million on Friday, then plummeted 44.4% on Saturday to earn $3.5 million, and slipped 20.3% on Sunday, going on to earn $2.8 million. Although this is a fairly disappointing debut, 'Paper Towns' is still a
success, passing its modest budget of $12 million in 3 days. It is likely 'Paper Towns' quickly falls off in the following weeks, going on to earn around $30 million total.
     Pixar's 'Inside Out' eased 35.8% this weekend, earning $7.4 million and bringing its domestic total to $320.4 million. It should earn a total north $345 million overall.

     In eighth place, 'Jurassic World' fell a light 37.3% to go on and added $7.2 million to its HUGE $624.1 million. The Chris Pratt led dino flick passed 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($623.4m) this weekend on the all-time domestic chart. 'Jurassic World' is still on track to earn over $650 million total.
     'Mr. Holmes' increased 17.8% this weekend, making $2.9 million and bringing its total to $6.5 million. If it continues expanding, it will likely make over $15 million.
     The Arnold Schwarzenegger led, $155m box office bomb (domestically) 'Terminator Genysis' continued its disappointing run with $2.4 million this weekend. So far, the critically panned fifth installment of the once popular franchise continues to self-terminate with a paltry $85.7 million.
     Magic Mike XXL placed in 11th place this weekend, dancing its way to $1.9 million. The $14.8 million Channing Tatum sequel still under performs with a  decent, but lower-than-expected, $63.1 million take so far.
     Bajrangi Bhaijaan earned a solid $1.6 million, bringing its domestic cume to $5.6 million in 10 days of release.

     The Top 12 earned $138.4 million this weekend, which is 24.6% from last weekend and up 1.1% from the same weekend last year.

Friday Report: 'Pixels' Rules with Modest $9.2m, 'Ant-Man' and 'Minions' Fighting for Second, 'Southpaw' Strong and 'Paper Towns' Uneventful

     The top spot on Friday belonged to Adam Sandler's sci-fi comedy 'Pixels', which debuted to $9.2 million yesterday. That is a modest gross,
and way below pre-release expectations. The Adam Sandler film earned a lackluster 'B' CinemaScore, and critics aren't really enjoying the film either (19% on Rotten Tomatoes). For the three-day weekend, 'Pixels' should earn around $25 million.

     After opening to first place last week, Marvel's 'Ant-Man' dropped to second with a $7.2 million take. That is off a steep 68.1% from opening day. That drop is a bit worse than 'Thor: The Dark World' (-67%), 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' (-67.9%), and 'Guardians of the Galaxy' (-67.5%), but is an improvement over 'Iron Man 3's 71.4% drop and 'The Incredible Hulk's 69% drop. The Paul Rudd-led action flick
has so far earned a lower-than-expected $88.5 million in 8 days of release and will likely end up in the range of $22-26 million this weekend.
    Fellow holdover 'Minions' placed in third yesterday to make $6.7 million. That is off 54%, which is steeper than 'Penguins of Madagascar' (-34.6%) and 'Puss in Boots' (+13.5%). Universal's 3D animated blockbuster is so far being pretty front-loaded, but nevertheless has earned an impressive $246.2 million in 15 days. 'Minions' should earn around $20-24 million for the weekend.
     'Paper Towns' ended up performing below expectations, with a modest $6.3 million. That is way below the $26.2 million opening day of 'The Fault in our Stars', though 'Fault' had more recognizable star power. 'Towns' is low-budgeted though ($12 million), and in the long run should be considered a hit. Its opening should be in line with about $13-15 million.

     The third wide-release newcomer this weekend, 'Southpaw', rounded out the Top 5 with a stronger-than-expected $6.2 million. That is a much better number than 'Nightcrawler's $3.2 million opening day, although that film opened on the day of Halloween, where moviegoers skip films to go trick-or-treating. Still, expect the boxer drama to earn around $15-18 million this weekend.
     Films outside the Top 5 still continued to do solid business, with 'Trainwreck' bringing in $5.3 million ($49.5m cume) and Inside Out pulling in $2.2 million ($315.2m cume) while Jurassic World added $2 million to its record-breaking run ($618.9m cume).

    

'Paper Towns' Leads Thursday Previews with $2m, 'Pixels' Builds Up $1.5m, 'Southpaw' Hits with $1.2m

     'Paper Towns' had the highest-grossing Thursday night debut yesterday, leading with $2.0 million. That is a pretty impressive number; however, if it plays like the Fault in Our Stars, it will wind up with an opening of just below $12 million. My prediction is a bit more generous than that, as I am expecting an opening north of $16 million.
     'Pixels' came in with a $1.5 million Thursday preview gross. That is a decent opening considering its price-tag ($90m). It will most likely end up like Edge of Tomorrow, which was another pricey sci-fi flick carrying big star power that opened against a John Green adaptation. That would put it at a so-so $24 million opening, which seems likely at this point (an atrocious 20% from critics and a lackluster 59% rating from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes).
     The last new w-
ide release opening this weekend is 'Southpaw', which debuted to a solid $1.2 million last night. It probably won't play like last October's 'Nightcrawler' (a weekend-to-preview ratio of 20.19-to-1), and if it does it would heavily over perform with around $24 million. Instead, a weekend in the range of $10-15 million seems likely.

'Jurassic World' Stomps Past 'Avengers' for #3 Worldwide, 'Inside Out' With Over $500 million

     Universal's Jurassic World just passed Marvel's The Avengers yesterday to earn over $1.52 billion, passing the lifetime gross of Avengers' $1.519 billion. The sequel has also broken the record for fastest time to reach $1.52 billion worldwide, whereas Marvel's The Avengers took 133 days. So far, Jurassic World has earned $615 million domestic and over $907 million worldwide, and should close with over $1.6 billion total, which would be good enough for third place (behind Avatar, with $2.8 billion, and Titanic, with $2.2 billion).

      Pixar's Inside Out crossed the $500 million mark on Tuesday, earning $510.1 million worldwide after 32 days of release. This is Disney's third film of 2015 to cross that milestone, joining the likes of Avengers: Age of Ultron ($1.393 billion) and Cinderella ($539.5 million). It wouldn't be a surprise if Inside Out passes $700 million by the end of its run, becoming Pixar's fifth film to do so.

Weekend Forecast: 'Pixels' to Invade Family Market, 'Paper Towns' To Strike the Hearts of Teens, 'Southpaw' to Hit the Box Office

    
     The strong month of July is set to continue this weekend when sci-fi comedy Pixels, teen romance Paper Towns, and sports drama Southpaw crash into theaters. Pixels will have to battle Ant-Man and Minions for the top spot while Paper Towns and Southpaw are likely to open in the low-to-high teens.
     Pixels is the latest release from Sony Pictures, which is not quite having a stellar year (their highest-grossing pic so far is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 with $70.7 million). They will have to hope that their new film starring Adam Sandler will be more successful, although it is already expected to open in somewhere in the mid-$20 millions. It costs $90 million (originally $110 million before rebates), so if this film does open in line with expectations it will have to hold up extremely well, which seems tough for a movie like this.
     One factor working against Pixels is that Adam Sandler isn't really a box office draw anymore since his last two movies flopped (Men, Women & Children with $706k and Blended with $46.3m). The same can be said about Kevin James, who has starred in misfires like Little Boy ($6.5m), Here Comes the Boom ($45.3m), and The Dilemma ($48.5m).
     However, Josh Gad has box office potential since he has starred in recent hits like The Wedding Ringer ($64.5m) and Frozen ($400.7m), and Peter Dinklage is widely known from his role in Game of Thrones. IMDb activity isn't that impressive, though, since it is currently sitting at an abysmal 6.0/10 from 516 users. Early reviews haven't been accounted for yet. It could take a hit from other family-friendly holdovers (Ant-Man and Minions, we are looking at you), which are also set to earn over $20 million this weekend.
     One of the other new wide releases opening this weekend is Paper Towns, a teen romance adapted from the popular book from John Green. It was originally predicted to open to $32 million, but is now expected to debut in the high-teen millions.
     The Fault in Our Stars opened to over $48 million last year, although that film much more significant star power (Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort) than Paper Towns. John Green's book is very popular, though, and his fan base should rush out to see this.
     Early reviews have been mostly positive, with an early score of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 7.0/10 rating on IMDb (1,672 users).This should help with moviegoers who are on the fence with this. The film is mainly targeting young girls, and should succeed in drawing them in.

     Southpaw is a boxing drama that is expected to open in the low-to-mid-teen millions this weekend. That would be a solid start for the Jake Gyllenhaal flick, whose latest success is Nightcrawler ($32.4m), which opened last October. Boxing fans will probably go out to see this as well as casual viewers who have grown tired of big-budget action-packed special-effects-bonanza blockbusters.
     However, the R-rated film has garnered mostly mixed reviews from critics, with a disappointing 48% on Rotten Tomatoes. It is faring better on IMDb though, with a healthy 8.3/10 rating from 1,647 users. Also, its R rating will restrict audiences a bit, although that wasn't a problem for R-rated hits like Spy ($106.8m and counting) and Mad Max: Fury Road ($151m and counting), although Spy was a comedy and Mad Max was an action film.

Official Forecast:

1. Pixels-$26.8 million

2. Ant-Man-$24.9 million (-56.4%)

3. Minions-$31.2 million (-36.7%)

4. Trainwreck-$21.8 million (-27.5%)

5. Paper Towns-$18.7 million

5. Southpaw-$15.6 million

Weekend Actuals: ‘Ant-Man’ Colonizes $57.2m Opening, ‘Trainwreck’ Strong with $30.1m Debut

            It was yet another busy weekend at the box office, as newcomers Ant-Man and Trainwreck opened strong, although the former debuted on the lower end of expectations.

            The MCU’s latest entry dug up a solid $57.2 million debut, earning a per-screen average of $14,841. It started out with $22.6 million of Friday, dropped 14.1% on Saturday, earning $19.5 million, and declined 22.4% for a $15.1 million take on Sunday. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is 2.53-to-1. That is a bit more front-loaded than The Incredible Hulk, but is more back-loaded than the more successful films Iron Man 3 and Avengers: Age of Ultron.

While this is a fine performance for a lesser-known character, it is relatively disappointing when other films come to mind. Its $14.8k per-theater average is the lowest in the MCU, being edged out by misfire The Incredible Hulk ($15.8k). It is also separated by just $1.8 million from The Incredible Hulk’s opening weekend, which is the current franchise low at $55.4 million. That isn’t a necessarily good sign, although it is going over with critics and audiences much better (79% for critics and 92% for audiences on RT).

With an ‘A’ on CinemaScore, Ant-Man should hold up better than that film. A tally north of $145 million is likely.

The other new wide release is Universal’s Judd Apatow-directed Trainwreck, which opening in third place to $30.1 million for a $9,530 per-theater average. The raunchy R-rated comedy debuted with a strong $10.7 million on Friday, increased 3.1% on Saturday to earn $11.1 million, and fell 25.1% on Sunday, earning $8.3 million. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at an impressive 2.81-to-1. That’s a bit behind Bridesmaids and Knocked Up, though those films had more recognizable leads.

The audience was 66% female, which can be explained by the arrival of Ant-Man this weekend, which probably stole away most of the male audience. If it holds up like other Apatow films, Trainwreck will end its run with around $115 million.

Last weekend’s Minions slipped 57.4% to earn $49.3 million this weekend. That drop is much steeper than the other Despicable Me films, and failed to replicate the holds of similar animated spin-offs Puss in Boots and is slightly better than last November’s disappointment Penguins of Madagascar. However, Minions is anything but a disappointment. It crossed the $200 million milestone this weekend, with a whopping $215.8 million after 10 days in release. It is still poised to wind up with over $320 million in the long run, although mixed reviews might slow it down a bit (54% on Rotten Tomatoes).

In fourth place, Inside Out crossed the $300 million mark this weekend, grossing $306.3 million through the weekend. It earned $11.5 million, representing a 34.7% drop from last weekend. It is currently set to pass $335 million by the end of its run.

Jurassic World placed in fifth, earning $11.5 million and a mighty $611.2 million overall. It roared past the $600 million mark on Friday, becoming only the fourth film to do so in history. It also set the record for the fastest time to earn $600 million domestic, doing so in only 36 days (previous record-holder Avatar passed it in 47 days). It is on track to end its run with a whopping $660 million total.

Terminator Genysis got terminated by Ant-Man this weekend, placing in sixth. It fell a ghastly 60.9% from last weekend and earned $5.4 million. So far, the $155 million action flick has earned a very disappointing $80.6 million and should close with a little over $90 million.

Seventh place belonged to Magic Mike XXL, which dropped 53.6% from last weekend to earn $4.4 million over the three-day weekend and $58.6 million total. Overall, the Channing Tatum sequel should earn well over $70 million.

The Gallows haunted eighth with $4.01 million, falling 59.1% from its opening weekend. It has so far made $18.01 million, and should end its run with over $22 million.

Bajrangi Bhaijaan debuted in ninth place in 256 theaters, earning a $2.6 million take for the weekend and a $10,239 per-theater average. The film should earn over $8 million overall.

Ted 2 dropped to tenth place with $2.6 million, bringing its domestic cume $77.4 million. It was off 54.1% from last weekend. So far, Ted 2 has underwhelmed greatly and should end its run with around $90 million.