Weekend Forecast: 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' to Take Flight, Audiences Take a 'Vacation'

     Two popular franchises return this weekend with 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' and 'Vacation' set to rule the box office, although the latter is underwhelming so far.
      Coming off the strongly received 'Ghost Protocol', the fifth installment of the spy franchise is set to earn around $45 million for the three-day weekend, though there is a possibility it can overcome that number.

     First off, the 'Mission: Impossible' franchise is a very strong one, with top performers including 'Mission: Impossible II' ($215.4m) and the aforementioned 'Ghost Protocol' ($209.4m), and not to mention the spy genre overall, with recent hits like 'Skyfall' ($304.4m) and 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($128.3m). The marketing has been great too, especially the event where some customers at a shopping center getting an opportunity to prove themselves as worthy IMF agents. Reviews are very positive as well, with a stellar 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a promising 8.2/10 rating on IMDb.
     However, not everything is working in favor with 'Rogue Nation'. One factor going against the film is Tom Cruise's drawing power, which has somewhat faded over recent years. His most recent films are sci-fi misfires that include 'Oblivion' ($89.1m cume to $120m budget) and 'Edge of
Tomorrow' ($100.2m cume to $178m budget). He also starred in the flop known as 'Rock of Ages' ($38.5m cume to $75m budget). It also doesn't help that the summer has already been filled with big-budget action flicks ('Mad Max: Fury Road' with $151.9m and 'Terminator Genysis' with $86.8m), and audiences who are tired of those films will probably look over this. Still, it is likely the $150m Tom Cruise led action flick will have enough good will from the previous installment to earn over $50 million this weekend.
     The weekend's other new release, 'Vacation', will serve as counter-programming. It is the fifth theatrical release in the popular comedy franchise. It opened on Wednesday, earning an underwhelming $3.8 million and went on to make $2.5 million on Thursday, with a total of $6.3 million so far. That is significantly below pre-release expectations, and way behind similar road trip comedy 'We're the Millers', which debuted to a much better $6.8 million on Wednesday and went on to earn $26.4 million for the three-day weekend and a $37.9 million five-day start. Reviews are in the cellar (a terrible 23% on Rotten Tomatoes, and word-of-mouth isn't something the studio would be too happy about (a 'B' rating on CinemaScore). If 'Vacation' plays like 'We're the Millers', it will wind up with $14.7 million three-day and $21.2 million five-day. That would still be a fairly solid start, costing just $31 million, but is still disappointing.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation': $52.4 million

2. 'Vacation': $15.2 million (3-day); $22.3 million (5-day)

3. 'Ant-Man': $15.3 million (-38.6%) 

4. 'Pixels': $10.7 million (-55.4%)

5. 'Minions': $10.6 million (-53.7%)