Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Weekend Forecast: 'The Martian' To Take the #1 Spot, Audiences Dare to Take 'The Walk' and 'Sicario' Set to Thrill

     This weekend sees the adaptation of a very popular science fiction two films should perform remarkably well while the holdovers will probably experience light drop-offs. Meanwhile, Robert Zemeckis's 'The Walk' opens in 448 IMAX-only locations.
     First, the biggest nationwide release is Ridley Scott's sci-fi novel adaptation 'The Martian', costing $108 million and starring Matt Damon. The lead star's most recent film, 'The Monuments Men', was an unexpected hit last year when it opened to $22 million and closed with an impressive $78 million. Reviews and anticipation are also very encouraging, as it has a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score and a +99% Flixter score based on over 40k users, beating last November's 'Interstellar''s reviews (72% on RT), a similar space-based epic with major lead stars and directors involved. 'Martian' also boasts impressive social media activity, with almost 94k total mentions on Twitter over the past three days. However, Facebook activity isn't nearly as enthusiastic as it has 158k likes while 'Interstellar' had 1.2 million fans and 'Gravity' had 607k. However, interest should have definitely sparked up since NASA's latest announcement that they found actual water on Mars, which could prompt moviegoers to check this film out. The marketing is going pretty smoothly as well, with the #BringHimHome and solid ads. Matt Damon's recent box office track record is pretty spotty however, with a couple hits like the previously said 'Monuments Men' and 'We Bought a Zoo' ($75.6m) while others haven't been nearly as successful like 'Green Zone' ($35.1m) and 'Elysium' ($93.1m). Director Ridley Scott has also been struggling, since his most recent films 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' ($65m) and 'The Counselor' ($17m) flopped while 'Prometheus' ($126.5m) and 'Robin Hood' ($105.3m) failed to pass their budgets ('Prometheus' had a $130m budget while 'Robin Hood' had a $200m budget). However, Fandango sales have reportedly been succeeding 'Gravity', hinting at a $55-million+ weekend, which is pretty likely for the sci-fi drama and definitely marking an improvement over 'Interstellar''s $47.5 million opening.
     Next, we have the nationwide expansion of Lionsgate's thriller 'Sicario', which has enjoyed especially lucrative incomes from limited release ($2.7m since being released on September 18). 'Sicario' so far has the highest per-theater average of any film in 2015 ($66.9k), and its limited expansion last weekend also posted an excellent average with $29.1k. Reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth have obviously helped as well as respectable Twitter activity (4.8k mentions today). However, not all limited releases translate into very impressive grosses, such as 'Everest''s expansion last weekend. After making good money in its IMAX/PLF locations, many expected a $17m+ weekend gross, but ended up making just $13.2 million. 'Selma' opened to a great $571.5k in 19 locations while it ended up making $11.3 million during its nationwide release. 'Sicario' will likely avoid that fate, as 'Everest' ($13.3k) and 'Selma' ($30.1k) had much lower per-theater averages in their limited release. 'Sicario' will probably end up making over $13 million for the three-day weekend, which would represent a strong nationwide expansion.
   
Weekend Forecast
1. 'The Martian' - $57.3 million
2. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $30.5 million (-37.2%)
3. 'Sicario' - $13.9 million (+820%)
4. 'The Intern' - $11.6 million (-34.5%)
5. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $7.7 million (-46.2%)
    

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Weekend Actuals: 'Hotel Transylvania 2' Takes Off with Biggest September Debut, 'The Intern' a Pleasant Surprise, and 'The Green Inferno' Dies Out

     Three new wide releases, animated sequel 'Hotel Transylvania 2', comedy 'The Intern', and cannibal horror 'The Green Inferno', opened this weekend to mostly respectable numbers as 'Transylvania' had the highest September debut of all time and 'Intern' had a solid opening while 'Inferno' represents the lowest opening for director Eli Roth.
     Easily taking the Number 1 spot, 'Hotel Transylvania 2', an $80-million Adam Sandler led animated comedy from Sony, broke the September opening record with $48.5 million, besting its predecessor's $42.5 million debut. The per-theater average ($12,910) was also barely higher than the first 'Hotel Transylvania ($12,697). Nevertheless, this marks a successful rebound for both Sony and Sandler, both who experienced recent box office duds like 'Pixels' ($77.2m) and 'That's My Boy' ($36.9m). 'Transylvania' started out with $13.3 million on Friday, increased a very strong 55.7% on Saturday to earn $20.8 million, and declined 30.7% on Sunday and grossing $14.4 million. That places the film's weekend-to-Friday ratio at a very solid 3.65-to-1. That suggests very solid holding power like the first one, which went on to make $148.3 million domestic. Reviews are better but like the first they aren't all that great (52% on Rotten Tomatoes), but word-of-mouth is pretty solid like the last one (80% on Flixter and an 'A-' CinemaScore). This installment will likely pass the first 'Transylvania''s cume, and a final total of over/under $165 million is likely.
     In second place, $35-million Anne Hathaway / Robert De Niro led PG-13 comedy 'The Intern' posted an excellent debut this weekend with $17.7 million. That is above some of director Nancy Meyer's other movies like 'The Holiday' ($12.8m) and 'Something's Gotta Give' ($16.1m) and just $4.4 million below 'It's Complicated' ($22.1m). With an solid per-theater average of $5,364, 'Intern' began with $6.2 million on Friday, increased 18.1% on Saturday, earning $7.4 million, and fell 43.5% on Sunday to gross $4.2 million, putting the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.85-to-1, suggesting great legs going forward. Reviews aren't very encouraging however (56% on RT), although audiences are a bit more generous ('A-' on CinemaScore). A cume of around $65-$70 million should be a lock.
     Down two spots from last weekend, $61-million Dylan O'Brien led dystopian YA adaptation 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' fell 52.9% from its opening of $30.3 million to gross $14.3 million. 'Scorch Trials' has so far been underwhelming with $52 million in the bank, whereas the first 'Maze Runner' had $58 million at the same point. Unfortunately, due to weak reviews (50% on RT) and word-of-mouth that doesn't live up to the original ('B+' on CinemaScore) as well as its nature as a sequel, 'Scorch Trials' should finish with a solid but uneventful $85 million.
     In fourth place, Universal's mountain climbing drama/thriller 'Everest' performed modestly in its nationwide expansion, taking in $13.2 million, which is up 83.4% from its $7.2 million IMAX/PLF release last weekend. However, the per-theater average this weekend ($4,405) was down a whopping 66.8% from last weekend's take ($13,251), suggesting that audiences were mostly interested in experiencing the film in IMAX. The $55-million drama has so far taken in a total of $23.3 million, and will need to rely on solid reviews (72% on RT) and word-of-mouth (76% on Flixter) to hold up well. Still, expect a total of around $60 million.
     Falling 51.3% from last weekend, Warner Bros.' crime film 'Black Mass', starring Johnny Depp and costing $53 million, earned $11 million. That hold isn't nearly as good as similar crime thrillers 'The Town' (-34.5%) and 'The Departed' (-29.2%), and while reviews are solid (75% on RT), audiences aren't really enjoying it as much ('B' on CinemaScore). 'Black Mass' currently has $42.1 million, and should end its run with $60 million.
     M. Night Shyamalan's $5-million horror comedy from Universal 'The Visit' was down just 42.3% from last weekend, making $6.7 million. 'Visit' has so far reinforced M. Night Shyamalan's career, with $52.2 million already and a possible lock for $65 million.
     Sony's 'The Perfect Guy' continues to perform solidly and fall off quickly with $4.8 million this weekend, down 51%. The $12-million production has so far grossed a stellar $48.9 million, and looks to be finishing with around $54 million total.
     'War Room', the $3-million sleeper hit from Sony, dropped a slim 31.7% from last weekend to earn $4.2 million, adding to its strong $56 million cume. 'War Room' looks to be closing with about $67 million by the end of its run.
     'The Green Inferno' debuted very modestly with a $3.5 million opening and a $2,286 per-theater average. The $6-million cannibal horror-thriller from High Top Releasing performed on the low end of its pre-release expectations, which tended to range from $4-$5 million. 'Inferno' should continue to die out from theaters as it should finish with at least $6 million.
     Lionsgate's $30-million crime thriller 'Sicario'
successfully expanded to 59 locations following a strong limited release in 6 theaters last weekend ($401.3k for a $66,881 per-theater average). 'Sicario' was up a very strong 327.9% from last weekend to gross $1.7 million for a solid $30k per-theater average. With $2.3 million in the bank, 'Sicario' looks to expand nationwide next weekend.
     'A Walk in the Woods' fell a whopping 60.6% from last weekend due to it losing 788 theaters and grossing $1.1 million. 'Woods' has so far grossed $27.3 million, and should finish with around $30 million if it doesn't take another drastic drop in theater count.
     Rounding out the Top 12, biography 'Pawn Sacrifice' grossed $1.01 million this weekend for a $1,287 per-theater average, up 397.4% from last weekend when it grossed $202.1k. The thriller could gross $3 million by the end of its run if it holds up well, which is very likely.
     The Top 12 this weekend amassed a total of $127.8 million, which is up a very encouraging 29.6% from last weekend and 30.1% from last year when 'The Equalizer' took the top spot with a solid $34.1 million debut.
     Next weekend sees the nationwide release of Fox's highly-anticipated novel adaptation 'The Martian', the IMAX-only release of 'The Walk, and the nationwide expansion of 'Sicario'.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Weekend Forecast: Audiences to Go to 'Hotel Transylvania', Meet 'The Intern', and Avoid 'The Green Inferno'

     A mid-September sequel to a very successful film that was generally well-liked among audiences should be able to take the top spot this weekend once again, while a Robert De Niro / Anne Hathaway collaboration should nab an impressive debut and a low-profile, low-budget cannibal horror should fail to scare up big numbers.
     Animated comedy sequel 'Hotel Transylvania 2' is obviously the most likely candidate for first place this weekend. Like last week's 'Scorch Trials', 'Transylvania' is a relatively modestly-budgeted sequel that audiences (for the most part) enjoyed that was released in mid-September. Sony is also playing it in at least 225 more locations in hopes of at least passing $40 million. Unfortunately, that will likely not be happening as reviews (38% on Rotten Tomatoes) and anticipation (+96%) pale in comparison to the first. Star Adam Sandler has had a hard time finding an audience as well, since his latest films stumbled upon their opening ('Pixels' with $24m and 'Men, Women, and Children' with $306.4k). However, families don't mind as 'Bedtime Stories' ($110.1m) and the first 'Hotel Transylvania' ($148.3m) have done remarkably well, and social media activity has been good too (an impressive 9.4m Facebook fans and a 40:1 ratio of positive-to-negative mentions on Twitter today. The $80-million animated fantasy comedy should perform similarly to 'Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2', which had a $34 million opening. Somewhere around that figure is likely.
     Nancy Meyers and Warner Bros. proudly presents clever counter-programming this weekend with the PG-13 comedy 'The Intern', starring Robert De Niro and Anne Hathaway. Costing $35 million, the odds are currently for 'Intern' for numerous reasons. First, after a summer of R-rated comedies and big-budget action-packed blockbusters, older audiences would probably like to finally see a movie that is right up their ally instead of a special effects bonanza. The cast is pretty impressive too, as the stars have had major successes recently (De Niro with 'Last Vegas' ($63.9m) and Hathaway with 'Les Miserables' ($148.8m)). Also, the director is well-known with hits like 'It's Complicated' ($112.7m) and 'Something's Gotta Give' ($124.7m). The only thing that's really going against 'Intern' is the critical reception (49% on RT), but that still hasn't hindered anticipation (+97%). A weekend of around $14-$22 million is a lock, which is the general range of Meyer's films' openings.
     Gory R-rated cannibal horror-thriller 'The Green Inferno' debuts in over 1,500 locations, though that probably won't save it from having a lackluster opening. The long-delayed $6-million horror from Eli Roth has so far experienced middling reviews (45% on RT) and weak anticipation (+86%), meaning that general awareness is pretty low. There have barely been any commercials anyway, so the marketing isn't really pushing it that much. Roth's largest opening so far is 'Hostel''s $19.6 million opening while the lowest is 'Hostel Part II', ironically, with $8.2 million. 'Inferno' will probably take that place with a weekend of just over $2.5 million, and with likely front-loading already, will most likely not make it that far.
    
Weekend Forecast
1. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $33.8 million
2. 'The Intern' - $20.4 million
3. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $15.7 million (-48.2%)
4. 'Black Mass' - $14.3 million (-36.7%)
5. 'The Visit' - $5.8 million (-50%)
-   'The Green Inferno' - $2.9 million

Saturday, September 19, 2015

'Maze Runner' Leads but Doesn't Outrun Predecessor, 'Black Mass' Solid, 'Everest' Hikes Up into the Top 5

     'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' blazed into 3,791 theaters this weekend and took first place on Friday, but failed to make an improvement upon the first 'Maze Runner'. Meanwhile, Johnny Depp's 'Black Mass' debuted nicely, and 'Everest', opening in 546 IMAX theaters only, had a pretty good take as well.
     The second installment in the 'Maze Runner' trilogy, known as 'The Scorch Trials', opened with a solid $11 million on Friday, including the $1.7 million Thursday preview gross. While that shouldn't be considered a failure, it is disappointing in a way as many expected 'Scorch Trials' to significantly outpace its predecessor, with most projections ranging from $40-$50 million. It debuted below the $11.3 million opening of the first 'Maze Runner' and way below the $21.1 million take of 'Insurgent'. While YA sequels tend to be more front-loaded than their predecessors, 'Scorch Trials' should have better legs than those as the first one's opening day accounted for just 34.8% of its opening week
end. Some factors that can contribute to the film underperforming include sour reviews (49% on Rotten Tomatoes) and weaker word-of-mouth ('B+' Cinemascore compared to the first one's 'A-'). A weekend of around $28 million should be likely.
     'Black Mass' brought Johnny Depp back on track with $8.8 million, including $1.4 million from Thursday. The $53-million crime thriller represents Depp's highest opening in a lead role since the $215-million flop 'The Lone Ranger', which brought in just $10.6 million on Friday. It debuted ahead of most expectations, which ranged from $20-25 million. It debuted ahead of 'The Departed''s $8.7 million take as well as 'The Town''s $8.3 million opening. Those films had openings north of $23 million, and it wouldn't be surprising if 'Black Mass' could replicate that holding power. An opening weekend of $26 million should be a lock.
     M. Night Shyamalan's 'The Visit' plummeted 61.2% from opening day and grossed $3.6 million. That drop is almost in line with 'Devil''s 55.8% decline. However, the horror comedy has been a massive success thus far, and with an outstanding $34.6 million in the bank, a second weekend of around $11 million is likely.
     'The Perfect Guy' suffered the worst drop, falling 69.5% to earn $3.03 million, which is similar to 'No Good Deed''s decline (-66.5%). The romance thriller has so far taken in a stellar $34.7 million against a $12-million budget, and a second weekend of $10 million is a lock.
     'Everest' climbed into the Top 5 on Friday, taking in a solid $2.3 million. The $55-million thriller based on the 1996 disaster debuted in 546 IMAX-only locations, making its debut all the more impressive. The only good comparison here is 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocal', which opened to $4.1 million in 425 locations (300 of which were IMAX) and went on to earn $12.8 million. If 'Everest' follows that pattern, it will end up with a strong $7 million debut.
     Opening in eighth place, the third faith-based film 'Captive' debuted to a modest $647k in 806 locations. The $2-million crime drama-thriller based on the true events of an Atlanta hostage situation debuted below last weekend's '90 Minutes in Heaven', which took in $759k on its opening day. $1.5 million and up is likely.
     Playing in 6 locations, 'Sicario' opened with a very strong $134k, averaging $22,333 per theater. It will likely earn over $350k for the weekend. 'Sicario' expands nationwide on September 25, 2015.

Weekend Prediction
1. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $28.6 million
2. 'Black Mass' - $26.4 million
3. 'The Visit' - $10.8 million (-57.5%)
4. 'The Perfect Guy' - $10 million (-61.4%)
5. 'Everest' - $7.1 million
-   'Captive' - $1.7 million

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Weekend Estimates: September Box Office Revived by 'The Visit' and 'The Perfect Guy'

     Audiences went for the thrills this weekend, allowing the new releases 'The Perfect Guy' and 'The Visit' to significantly exceed expectations with $25m+ openings. Meanwhile, faith-based drama film '90 Minutes in Heaven' debuted modestly in 878 locations.
     'The Perfect Guy' solidly opened in first place this weekend, taking in an estimated $26.7 million. The $12-million PG-13 romance thriller demolished pre-release projections, which ranged from $13 million to $21 million. 'Perfect Guy' began with $9.95 million on Friday, increased 5% on Saturday to earn $10.45 million, and is expected to decline a sizeable 39.7% on Sunday and making $6.3 million. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.68-to-1, which is a pretty good sign going forward. However, last September's similar PG-13 rated thriller 'No Good Deed' had a 2.76-to-1 ratio and that opening accounted for a very front-loaded 46.2% of its total gross. Still, with a budget of just $12 million, Sony should consider this a success after a long year of flops and misfires, although it did rebound a bit with 'War Room' a couple weeks ago. 'Perfect Guy' may have also benefited from strong word-of-mouth ('A-' on CinemaScore), although reviews aren't as enthusiastic (31% on Rotten Tomatoes). If 'Perfect Guy' can hold up like another similar movie, 2009's 'Obsessed', it will wind up with around an excellent $63 million.
     In a close second place, M. Night Shyamalan's latest film 'The Visit' also destroyed expectations, which tended to range from $12 million to $17 million. The $5-million PG-13 horror comedy grossed $25.69 million, just $1.01 million away from the top spot. 'Visit' started out with $9.2 million on Friday, up a very encouraging 15.2% on Saturday and grossing $10.6 million, and is estimated to decline a pretty big 44.9% on Sunday to earn $5.9 million, putting the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a very promising 2.79-to-1. That makes it all the more impressive as the horror genre tends to be very front-loaded (this year's 'Insidious Chapter 3', for example, had a weekend ratio of just 2.16-to-1). If 'Visit' manages to hold up well in the coming weeks, which may prove difficult, a total north of $60 million should be likely. A more realistic projection would be a finish of around $55 million, which would still be a solid take. Universal has been having a great, great year so far, with hits like 'Furious 7', 'Pitch Perfect 2', 'Jurassic World', 'Straight Outta Compton', and now 'The Visit'.
     Last weekend's champion 'War Room' was pushed down to third place this weekend, but still took in an exceptional $7.4 million, down just 21.9% from last weekend. What's even more impressive is that it held up well after Labor Day, which inflated films' grosses a bit. Riding on a wave of good word-of-mouth (90% Flixter score), the $3-million Christian-based drama from Sony has amassed $39.2 million, and at this rate, getting to $50 million should be no problem at all.
     'A Walk in the Woods', an R-rated comedy adapted from the book and starring Robert Redford and Nick Nolte, was down a respectable 44% from its opening, drawing in $4.6 million. 'Woods' continues to be ahead of expectations, with $19.9 million in the bank so far and a lock for $26 million.
     'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' continued to experience great holds as it was down just 42.6% from its sixth weekend, earning $4.2 million. The $150-million spy action film from Paramount has made a solid $188.2 million so far, due in part to great reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth (90% Flixter score). 'Rogue Nation' should get past $193 million, and if it has enough gas left in the tank, $200 million could be a possibility as well.
     Late summer hit 'Straight Outta Compton' took sixth this weekend with $4.1 million, down 52.7%. The front-loaded $28-million F. Gary Gray directed rap drama from Universal has been making very good money with $155.7 million, and getting to $165 million should be pretty easy.
     'No Escape' continued to hold up well, making $2.9 million and down 47.4%. The $5-million Owen Wilson led international thriller has grossed an excellent $24.2 million, and if it can keep holding up well, $30 million is in its sights.
     $22-million franchise reboot 'The Transporter Refueled' kept running out of gas, bringing in just $2.7 million, which was down a very disappointing 63.3% from its debut. The flop should continue to sputter with $13.3 million so far until it has come to a full stop at around $17.5 million.
     '90 Minutes in Heaven' probably would have had a better opening if it hadn't opened so close to 'War Room', but nevertheless it still had a modest debut of about $2.2 million. 'Heaven' cost $5 million, and with a great weekend-to-Friday ratio (2.89-to-1), $7 million is a possibility.
     Spanish language animated film 'Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos' was down 44.5% from last weekend, making $1.9 million. The film has so far made $6.7 million, and $8 million is still a lock.
     'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' had a decent hold this weekend, dropping 46.1% to earn $1.875 million. However, the $75-million Guy Ritchie directed spy comedy from Warner Bros. and starring Henry Cavill and Armie Hammer has disappointed, bringing in a total of just $43.1 million. With that said, $50 million shouldn't be a problem, but should still be considered a failure.
     Marvel's latest superhero hit 'Ant-Man' grossed $1.6 million, down 43.7%. The $130-million heist comedy starring Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas has so far made an impressive $176.1 million, and should pass the $176.7 million total of 'Captain America: The First Avenger' in the next week or so. After that, $182 million can be seen as a finishing total, which would put it ahead of 'Thor' ($181.03m).
     Because of the stellar debuts of two new PG-13 rated thrillers this weekend, the Top 12 earned a solid $85.8 million, which is up 30.2% from last weekend and up 10.2% from the same point last year. Next week brings us the highly-anticipated dystopian novel-based 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials', Whitey Bulger based crime film 'Black Mass', and the story of the Atlanta hostage hero 'Captive'. In limited release is the thrilling new drama 'Everest', based on the events that occurred in 1996, and 'Sicario', an R-rated crime thriller about an FBI agent tracking down a drug lord at the borders of the US and Mexico.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Friday Report: Audiences Pay a 'Visit' to 'The Perfect Guy'

     Two new wide releases, M. Night Shyamalan's 'The Visit' and Sony's 'The Perfect Guy', rejuvenated the box office yesterday. Both are PG-13 rated thrillers that audiences generally liked, and taking the top two spots should be absolutely no problem.
     'The Perfect Guy', the new $12-million romance-thriller from Sony and Screen Gems, took in an excellent, better-than-expected $9.95 million on Friday, even with terrible reviews (33% on Rotten Tomatoes). That figure bests last September's 'No Good Deed''s opening day ($8.8m) and just $1.25 million shy from 'Obsessed''s $11.2 million opening. Word-of-mouth is positive, with an 'A-' on CinemaScore. If it plays similar to those two films, it will wind up anywhere from $24-$26 million.
     'Perfect Guy' wasn't the only winner though. M. Night Shyamalan's latest film, 'The Visit', nabbed a very impressive $9.2 million worth of box office receipts. The horror comedy from Universal cost just $5 million, so whether or not the film has legs going into the weekend, 'Visit' is undoubtedly a major success.  Critics and audiences alike have also enjoyed the movie more than Shyamalan's previous efforts (62% critics' score on RT and 67% on Flixter). It outperformed 'Devil''s $4.8 million as well as this year's 'Sinister 2''s $4.7 million.'Visit' will probably have identical holding power, so a debut of $23-$24 million is a lock.
     'War Room' had to settle for third, taking in a still-solid $2.16 million (off only 7.3% from last Friday). With strong holding power partially due to great word-of-mouth (90% Flixter score), a $7.5-$7.8 million third weekend should be in its sights.
     Last week's sleeper hit 'A Walk in the Woods' grossed $1.46 million, a respectable 33.7% decline from last Friday. A $4.5-$5 million second weekend would be likely for the R-rated comedy starring Robert Redford and Nick Nolte.
     $28-million rap drama hit 'Straight Outta Compton' made $1.2 million yesterday, which is off 46.1% from last time. So far, 'Compton' has been experiencing unimpressive holds, but still remains as one of 2015's biggest films. $3-$4 million should be likely for 'Compton'.
     Debuting in ninth place, faith-based drama '90 Minutes in Heaven' opened to a modest $760k. Obviously, opening so close after 'War Room' stole some of its breakout potential, and negative reviews (20% on Rotten Tomatoes) as well as mixed word of mouth (59% on Flixter) may have also had an impact. A debut of around $2 million is possible.




Weekend Forecast

1. 'The Perfect Guy' - $25.9 million
2. 'The Visit' - $23.5 million
3. 'War Room' - $7.6 million
4. 'A Walk in the Woods' - $4.9 million
5. 'Straight Outta Compton' - $3.7 million

-   '90 Minutes in Heaven' - $2.1 million

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Weekend Report: 'War Room' Takes Over, Audiences Take 'A Walk in the Woods' Instead of Getting 'Refueled'

     On what is the worst weekend of the year, last weekend's runner-up, the faith-based drama 'War Room', took the top spot from 'Straight Outta Compton'.Meanwhile, 'A Walk in the Woods' had a solid debut while franchise revival 'The Transporter Refueled' barely had any gas left in the tank.
     'War Room' slipped 17.6% from its stellar $11.4 million opening, grossing $9.4 million. It has been riding on a wave of solid word-of-mouth (a 90% Flixter score) despite withering reviews (36% on Rotten Tomatoes). The $3-million sleeper hit has so far grossed an excellent $24.7 million and should wind up with at least $40 million by the end of its run.
     Rap drama 'Straight Outta Compton' had to relinquish the weekend crown to 'War Room', but nevertheless performed solidly with a 32.6% decline from last weekend and an $8.9 million fourth-weekend take. The $28-million biopic from Universal has been front-loaded thus far, but with $147.8 million in the bank and the possibility of closing over $160 million, this is undeniably one of the biggest hits of the year.
     'A Walk in the Woods' placed in third this weekend with a better-than-expected $8.4 million three-day start. Since opening on Wednesday, the R-rated $8-million adult-skewing comedy starring  Robert Redford and Nick Nolte has grossed $10.5 million. Even with mixed reviews (47% on RT), word-of-mouth is fairly good ('B' on CinemaScore), and a $30 million total is likely.
     The $150-million Tom Cruise led spy action film known as 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' eased a very light 12.3%, earning $7.2 million. 'Rogue Nation' has so far earned a promising $180.4 million, and $195 million still isn't out of the question.
      'The Transporter Refueled', a $22-million Ed Skrein led action thriller franchise reboot, bombed with just $7.1 million. That is particularly ironic, as one of its predecessors, 'Transporter 2', set the Labor Day weekend record with $20.1 million four-day. It is obvious that the absence of previous Transporter Jason Statham had an impact on the fourth entry, as well as dismal reviews (18% on RT) and depressing word-of-mouth (35% Flixter score). 'Transporter' will likely be front loaded like the rest of the films, and closing in the range of $18-$20 million is most likely.
     Following its solid debut, 'No Escape' posted a great hold, falling just 32.9% from its $8.1 million three-day opening and earning $5.4 million. The $5-million Owen Wilson / Pierce Brosnan led international thriller has so far made an impressive $18.4 million, and $25 million is should be a lock.
     Spy comedy 'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' declined 22.3%, taking in $3.45 million. The $75-million disappointment has taken in a soft $39.4 million, and $45 million is still in range.
     Spanish-language animated film 'Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos' debuted to an excellent $3.4 million, taking in a solid $8.6k per-theater average. $10 million should be a lock for the unexpected hit.
     Horror sequel 'Sinister 2' eased a light 27.6% from its second-weekend take, bringing in $3.38 million. The $10-million horror flick has grossed a disappointing $23.7 million, and should continue to underperform with at least $26 million total.
     'Inside Out' rounded out the Top 10 with $3.1 million, up a whopping 133% due to its 2,204 theater expansion this weekend. This is similar to 'Jurassic World''s performance last weekend, which came back in IMAX 3D and made $3.01 million as a result, up 217.7%. With $348.2 million, $355 million is a possibility.
     Marvel's latest, 'Ant-Man', stole away $2.9 million, down a very small 6.1%. The $130-million Paul Rudd led heist comedy has so far assembled a solid $173.2 million, and could pass 'Captain America: The First Avenger''s total ($176.7m) since $180 million is in its sights.
     'Minions' rounded out the Top 12 with $2.7 million, down 5.4% from last weekend. The $74-million 3D animated blockbuster spin-off has been a massive success thus far, with $328.6 million and $335 million still a lock.
     Overall, the Top 12 earned $65.3 million total, which is one of the better Labor Day weekend performances in memory. However, Labor Day happened a week earlier last year. Still, this weekend's performance was up 26.8% from last year, which totaled $51.5 million when 'Guardians of the Galaxy' ruled over the legendary flop 'The Identical'.