Monday, April 25, 2016

Monthly Forecast: May 2016

     In arguably the biggest month of the year, five high-profile films will be marauding theaters throughout May of 2016. Given that May is one of the strongest months of any year, this should be one of the biggest as 'Captain America: Civil War', 'Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising', 'The Angry Birds Movie', 'X-Men: Apocalypse', and 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' should put tons of butts in seats this year.

Captain America: Civil War

Continuing the string of highly-anticipated Marvel movies kicking off the summer movie season, 'Captain America: Civil War', the very, very, very anticipated superhero three-quel to the universally liked 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier', arrives in theaters, and could possibly register one of the biggest debuts of all time. First off, goodwill from the second movie should carry on here. 'Winter Soldier' debuted to a very good $95 million back in 2014 and went on to earn $259.8 million overall. With a Tomatometer of 89% and Flixter score of 92%, this is definitely one of the most well-liked comic book films in recent history. Plus, Marvel has always had success on the first weekend of May, with such openers like 'Iron Man' ($98.6m/$318.4m), 'Iron Man 2' ($128.1m/$312.4m), 'Thor' ($65.7m/$181m), 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($207.4m/$623.4m), 'Iron Man 3' ($174.1m/$409m), and 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' ($191.3m/$459m). Not to mention the various other successful Marvel films, such as 'Guardians of the Galaxy' ($94.3m/$333.2m). And not only is Captain America in this film, but Iron Man and a bunch of other Avengers join the cast as well, making this an event film. Black Panther and Spider-Man debut in this film as well, which should make fans drool with impatience. Reviews are amazing (Spider-Man pun not intended), with a stellar 97% Tomatometer based on 35 reviews. The want-to-see rating is a very encouraging +99% from over 100k voters. However, coming off of the massive grosses from 'Deadpool' and 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' so soon, potential could be slightly limited. Still, 'Deadpool' came out just a little less than three months ago, and 'Batman v Superman' is falling off very quickly, so there should be a respectable amount of breathing room for the big-budget tentpole. Projections are enthusiastic, ranging anywhere from $165 million to as high as even $200 million. While some may think that is outlandish, it is definitely possible as the stacked cast, overall appeal among most moviegoers, and awesome reviews should definitely turn out in its favor. I'm going to go with a number a little over the latter number, as I feel confident that this will be one of the biggest movies ever. It could even give 'Avengers' a run for its money, though we'll have to look at its actual holds to determine that.
Predicted Opening: $203.5 million
Predicted Total: $570 million

The Darkness

Supernatural has been having a pretty decent year so far, with two releases exceeding expectations ('The Forest' with $26.6m and 'The Boy' with $35.8m). Kevin Bacon should also draw in some moviegoers for 'The Darkness', the latest low-budget entry in the popular genre. A couple problems, though, is that there is a lot of competition. While horror fans won't be occupied until the beginning of June, older audiences will be looking at a variety of much more appealing options in the market, such as 'Money Monster' (opening the same weekend), 'The Nice Guys', and, to some extent, 'X-Men: Apocalypse'. While it probably won't reach the heights of 2016's other horror films, 'Darkness' should be a modest performer in its own right.
Predicted Opening: $7 million
Predicted Total: $18 million

Money Monster

The $30-million drama/thriller 'Money Monster' will attempt to lock on to second place behind 'Civil War'. On paper, it looks like solid counter-programming: a good old-fashioned reality TV thriller starring some of your favorite actors aiming towards anyone who isn't into explosive, action-packed blockbusters. Also, with its financial-based premise, it should reel in some of those audiences. George Clooney and Julia Roberts aren't exactly reliable draws anymore, though, and it's unlikely they can do anything to help this film truly break out.
Predicted Opening: $14 million
Predicted Total: $38.5 million

The Angry Birds Movie

After countless tepid attempts to replicate the success of 'Tomb Raider', 'The Angry Birds Movie' will attempt to dethrone that film to become the biggest video game adaptation of all time (a position to be challenged by 2016's other contenders 'Warcraft' and 'Assassin's Creed'). With the advantage of being more family-friendly than the recent bloody R-rated fare as well as some solid pieces of marketing, it definitely has potential to do so. In fact, in 2015 more than 3 billion downloads of the game have been made. Still, doesn't it kind of feel that this movie came out a bit too late considering that the Angry Birds games aren't nearly as popular as they were when they first came out? Also, 'Zootopia' and 'The Jungle Book' will likely continue to have a presence at the box office, and coming out so soon before 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' and 'Finding Dory' debut is kind of a dumb move. 'Angry Birds' should be solid in its own right overall, and will likely set a new benchmark for video game movies in the process.
Predicted Opening: $45 million
Predicted Total: $148.5 million

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Another highly-anticipated sequel coming out in May is 'Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising', the sequel to the 2014 smash hit 'Neighbors' ($49m/$150.2m). With the trailers promising more raunchy humor and laugh-out-loud gags, it looks as if it could be as big as a hit as the first one. Most of the returning cast is here (including crowd-pleasers Seth Rogen, Rose Byrne, and Zac Efron), with the additions of Chloe Grace Moretz and Selena Gomez in significant roles, which should bring in younger viewers. While it basically looks pretty similar to its predecessor, the sorority element of it will likely keep it fresh. However, comedy sequels have been performing under expectations recently, with such examples of 'Horrible Bosses 2' (down 53.7%), 'Ride Along 2' (down 32.6%), and 'Ted 2' (down 62.8%). If 'Neighbors 2' plays like those films, it will wind up with anywhere between $56 million to $101 million. Seth Rogen and Zac Efron have also seen underwhelming performances from their follow-ups to 'Neighbors', with 'The Night Before' ($43m) and 'Dirty Grandpa' ($35.6m) making less than its opening weekend. However, given the mass appeal of the first film, an opening between those two totals is very likely, though it probably won't break free of the "comedy sequel affect".
Predicted Opening: $41.5 million
Predicted Total: $110 million

The Nice Guys

If someone asked me what the surprise hits of the summer might be, one of my choices would probably be 'The Nice Guys'. Sure, films not set anywhere in recent times, starring Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling, and opening in a sea of much higher-profile releases are pretty hit-and-miss nowadays, but with promising advertising thus far and the intriguing premise should get this film to break out significantly. It looks like the kind of film that anywhere from the most fussiest of critics and the least demanding of audiences would find satisfying, and if it has that aspect then it certainly has a lot going for it. And if you want a quirky, funny action-packed film full of one-liners, always count on the film's director Shane Black to deliver.
Predicted Opening: $19 million
Predicted Total: $65 million

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Coming in a whopping six years after the $200-million worldwide smash 'Alice in Wonderland' surprised everyone, 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' looks to have a mostly respectable run as well. The big-budget effects-driven fantasy spectacle will attempt to reach the $116.1 million opening and $334.2 million of the original. While it isn't necessarily a remake like the rest of Disney's recent fantasy hits, being a sequel to one of the biggest should help. While star Johnny Depp definitely isn't the kind of person he was back then, he should shine in his widely-appealing fantasy role. A similar example was 2011's 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides'. While it didn't come anywhere close to its predecessors, it still managed to hold its own given that it came out four years after the previous franchise low. However, competition is hotter than ever. 'Captain America: Civil War' and 'Angry Birds' will still be in plenty of theaters, 'X-Men: Apocalypse' will take away more mature audiences, 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' will take away the younger audiences, and 'Finding Dory' will take away the way younger audiences. While this means that the film will likely fall of quickly, 'Alice' should still rack up a solid debut to make up for some of it. Registering in the Top 10 Memorial Day openings is also likely.

Predicted Opening: $70.5 million ($84.5 million four-day)
Predicted Total: $190 million

X-Men: Apocalypse

Man, it's a huge year for comic book movies isn't it? With 'Deadpool' and 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' already out and 'Captain America: Civil War', this, 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows', 'Suicide Squad', and 'Doctor Strange' still on the way this year, it will definitely be in the Top 5 biggest-grossing years ever. But that's for a much later post. Now back to the main topic. 'X-Men: Apocalypse' will attempt to beat 'X-Men: The Last Stand' for the biggest opening and total of the X-Men franchise that isn't a spin-off (like the Wolverine films or 'Deadpool', which ironically is the biggest film of the franchise). Though it will likely fail to take the title of biggest Memorial Day debut, it should get in the Top 5. With the stakes raised even higher this time around (instead of time-traveling to stop murderous robots, the team must stop a God-like mutant from ravaging the world) and more fan-favorite characters both new and returning from long ago (Jean Grey, Cyclops, Nightcrawler, Jubilee, Psylocke, and Archangel among others), this should make a franchise high (for non spin-offs, of course). The last main installment, 'Days of Future Past', was very well-received (as well as 'Deadpool'), so goodwill will likely carry over. And last but not least, the final trailer revealed the unexpected and now much-anticipated return of the man who does what he does best. Are you ready? It's Wolverine.
Predicted Opening: $109 million ($130.5 million four-day)
Predicted Total: $272.5 million

 

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Weekend Estimates: Audiences Go Wild for 'The Jungle Book' and Pay a Visit to the 'Barbershop' While 'Criminal' is Missed

     Coming off of one of the slowest weekends of the year, Disney's big-budget fantasy remake of the 1967 animated classic 'The Jungle Book' easily made the box office rebound, instead delivering one of the year's biggest weekends.
     Taking first place by storm was the $175-million fantasy remake 'The Jungle Book', which brought in a massive $103.6 million for a robust $25.7k per-theater average. That is Disney's second largest opening in its library of live-action remakes of animated classics, besting 'Oz the Great and Powerful' ($79.1m), 'Maleficent' ($69.4m), and 'Cinderella' ($67.9m) and only falling behind the massive breakout success of 2010's 'Alice in Wonderland' ($116.1m). Riding a wave of solid marketing and incredible reviews going into the weekend as well as more four-quadrant appeal than similar titles, 'Jungle Book' was always going to be a big hit. However, not even the most optimistic of expectations could predict the family-friendly adventure would get this high. It also marks the second biggest April opening of all time, ahead of 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' ($95m) and behind 'Furious 7' ($147.2m). It's also the 32nd biggest opening overall, between 'X-Men: The Last Stand' ($102.8m) and 'Shrek 2' ($108m). Among the fantasy genre, it ranks fourth, ahead of 'Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire' ($102.7m) and 'Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban' ($93.7m) and surpassing the lifetime grosses of 'Bridge to Terabithia' and 'The Sorcerer's Apprentice'.
     Opening with $32.4 million on Friday (including $4.2m from Thursday), 'Jungle Book' rose a significant 26.9% on Saturday and earned $41.1 million, and will fall a slim 27% on Sunday to gross $30 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 3.20-to-1, beating 'Alice' (2.85x), 'Maleficent' (2.86x), and 'Cinderella' (2.95x). With much stronger reviews (95% on RT) and word-of-mouth (92% Flixter score and 'A' CinemaScore), 'Jungle Book' should hold up much stronger than those titles (save for 'Maleficent', which managed to display unusually strong holding power despite middling reviews and word-of-mouth). Still, for the sake of comparison, a multiplier similar to 'Alice' (2.87x) would get it to $297 million while one similar to either 'Oz' or 'Cinderella' (2.96x) would mean a total of $306 million. If it can replicate the legs of 'Maleficent' (3.48x), 'Jungle Book' will wind up with over $360 million. While that certainly is a possibility, it's less likely to happen than if 'Jungle Book' turns out to be quite front-loaded, even with the stellar reception. Outside of the remakes, 'Pirates of the Caribbean' and 'Indiana Jones' seem good for comparison. The second one opened with a then record-breaking $135.6 million and went on to earn $423.3 million, representing a 3.12x multiplier. If 'Jungle Book' plays similar to that, it could get close to $325 million. 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' debuted to $100.1 million in 2008 and ended its run with $317.1 million, producing a 3.17x multiplier, which in turn would get 'Jungle Book' close to $330 million. All of those numbers are very solid, and all set a new standard for Disney's live-action remakes of animated classics. Overall, I think $330m+ is very likely to happen.
     In a distant but mostly solid second place, the $20-million ensemble led comedy threequel 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' opened with $20.2 million for a respectable $7.6k per-theater average. Coming out 12 years after the last installment in the 'Barbershop' series (11 counting its spin-off, 'Beauty Shop'), expectations were kept in check for 'Next Cut' with projections ranging from $15m-$25m, but as the weekend approached predictions went as high as $30 million due to the stronger-than-expected reviews. While it failed to break out beyond the genre norm, it still performed quite well given that comedy sequels with massive gaps between release dates usually underwhelm or come in much lower than its predecessors. Such examples are 2014's 'Dumb and Dumber To' ($86.2m compared to the first's $127.2m) and February's 'Zoolander 2' ($28.8m compared to the first's $45.2m), and fortunately 'Barbershop' managed to avoid their fates. Instead, it played very similarly to the first 'Barbershop', which opened to $20.6 million back in 2002. Adjusted for inflation, though, its performance is much less impressive.
     On Friday, the PG-13 rated comedy opened with $7.1 million (including $735k from Thursday night), increased a healthy 16.6% on Saturday to earn 8.2 million, and should fall 39.9% on Sunday for $4.9 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is 2.85-to-1, or better than the 2.54-to-1 ratio of 'Dumb and Dumber To'. That film ultimately made $86.2 million in the long run. While 'Next Cut' will likely fail to top that number, much stronger reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth (78% Flixter rating and 'A-' CinemaScore) should propel it with much better legs. A total of at least $55 million is likely for the mid-budget comedy.
     In third and fourth, critical duds 'The Boss' and 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' fell off sharply. The former took in $10.2 million, down an unimpressive 56.9% from its better-than-expected opening. So far, the $29-million R-rated comedy has grossed $40.4 million and will look to be star Melissa McCarthy's most front-loaded film yet. However, it should still make a profit against its modest price tag and will likely end its run with around $65 million. Meanwhile, the latter slid even more, dropping a steep 61.4% from last weekend and raking in $9 million. With $311.3 million in the bank, the $250-million superhero tentpole has displayed horrible holding power, and will probably barely double its opening, which calls to mind the 2009 superhero movie 'Watchmen', which couldn't even do just that. With 'Huntsman: Winter's War' raiding theaters next weekend and brutal competition in May that features the likes of 'Captain America: Civil War' and 'X-Men: Apocalypse', it should continue to fall off quickly. At this rate, it's unlikely it will reach $350 million domestically.
     The $150-million animated hit 'Zootopia' held up well in the shadow of 'Jungle Book', slipping 42.6% and making $8.2 million. 'Zootopia' has grossed a very impressive $307.5 million, and, with the debut of 'Jungle Book' behind, will likely continue holding up well through the rest of April and possibly through May until 'The Angry Birds Movie' debuts. $335 million should be a lock at this point.
     In a disappointing sixth place, the $31.5-million action thriller 'Criminal' flopped with just $5.9 million. Unfortunately, the all-star cast and thought-provoking premise weren't enough to convince most audiences to pay for the violent R-rated film, and terrible reviews probably didn't help. This debut calls to mind similar duds like last July's 'Self/Less', which opened to a terrible $5.4 million on a $26 million budget, and February's 'Triple 9', which debuted to an awful $6.1 million on a $20-million budget. Obviously, 'Criminal' is much less impressive than those titles given the much stronger cast and bigger budget.
     Kicking things off with a $2.1 million Friday debut (including $235k), 'Criminal' rose 11.7% on Saturday for $2.3 million and is expected to drop 35.2% on Sunday for $1.5 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.81-to-1, which is worse than the 2.90-to-1 ratio of 'Triple 9' but better than the 2.70-to-1 ratio of 'Self/Less'. With bad critical reception (26% on RT) and middling word-of-mouth ('B-' CinemaScore and 60% Flixter score), the legs on this one seem to be very short. It shouldn't make much more than $15 million total.
     'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' eased 49.7% from last weekend, grossing $3.3 million. The $18-million romantic comedy sequel has so far grossed a solid $52.1 million, and should cross $60 million before the end of its run. 'Miracles from Heaven' placed in eighth, plummeting 59.6% after losing 730 locations this weekend. The $13-million faith-based drama made $1.9 million, adding on to its $56.9 million cume. $65 million total should be in reach by now. Meanwhile, fellow faith-based drama 'God's Not Dead 2' continued its underwhelming run, falling 59.6% for $1.7 million. Its total now stands at an unimpressive $17 million, but with its $5 million budget it doesn't really matter if it fell below expectations. It should inch past $20 million before it disappears from theaters.
     'Eye in the Sky' held fairly steady, dropping a solid 46.1% and making $1.6 million. The military thriller starring Helen Mirren has so far made $13.1 million, and $20 million might still be a possibility. Meanwhile, 'Hardcore Henry' plummeted an absolutely awful 71% from its already terrible opening, making just $1.5 million. Soft word-of-mouth ('C+' CinemaScore) and a general lack of appeal is likely the reason the $10-million first-person action film is getting crushed. and with only $8.2 million so far $15 million is no longer a guarantee.
     Rounding out the Top 12, 'The Divergent Series: Allegiant' continued its disappointing run, making $1.3 million and falling 63%.  The $110-million YA sequel has made just $63.9 million through five weeks of play, and should ultimately cross $75 million before the end of its run.
     The Top 12 this weekend grossed an outstanding $168.3 million, up a whopping 76.6% from last weekend's lackluster total and up a promising 50.2% from last year when 'Furious 7' three-peated in first while 'Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2', 'Unfriended', and 'Monkey Kingdom' had modest debuts while 'True Story' bombed.
     Next weekend, 'The Jungle Book' should have no problem fending off newcomers 'The Huntsman: Winter's War' and 'Elvis & Nixon' to remain in first place. The former looks to have a quiet debut in second, as it seems to be in theaters at the wrong time, being sandwiched between 'Jungle Book' and 'Captain America' and all. Meanwhile, not much is expected from 'Elvis & Nixon', which might find itself in fourth or fifth place.
    

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Weekend Estimates: Melissa McCarthy is 'The Boss', 'Batman v Superman' Continues Falling Off and 'Henry' Doesn't Go 'Hardcore'

     On the second slowest weekend of the year, 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' relinquished the top spot to a much lower-profile, more light-hearted film.
     Continuing Melissa McCarthy's streak of $20m+ openers, the $29-million comedy 'The Boss' exceeded most expectations and opened to a solid $23.6 million for a $6.8k per-theater average. That opening is slightly better than the 2014 R-rated comedy 'Tammy', which debuted to $21.6 million (although it should be noted 'Tammy' opened on a Wednesday). While it fell behind the likes of 'Identity Thief' ($34.6m), 'The Heat' ($39.1m), and 'Spy' ($29.1m), it was never really expected to match those films given that the premise seemed less accessible than those titles. This is just more proof that Melissa McCarthy is one of the more consistent box office leads in recent years, as very few actors or actresses can maintain a healthy streak of $20m+ openings. However, her drawing power is sure to be tested in July when the 'Ghostbusters' reboot opens, and with the trailer receiving overwhelmingly negative reaction, it's definitely going to be important to see how that one plays.
     On Friday 'The Boss' earned $8.1 million, increased 20.5% on Saturday to gross $9.8 million, and fell 41.3% on Sunday to make $5.7 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.91-to-1, which is behind 'Identity Thief' (3.12-to-1) and 'Tammy' (3.38-to-1) but an improvement over 'The Heat' (2.85-to-1) and 'Spy' (2.83-to-1). However, while those films were exceptionally leggy in the long run, 'The Boss' will have to put up with horrible reviews (17% on RT) and mixed word-of-mouth (50% Flixter rating as well as a 'C+' CinemaScore). Obviously, the closest comparison here is 'Tammy', which scored a 23% Tomatometer and a 37% Flixter score to go along with its 'C+' CinemaScore but managed to rake in $84.5 million total for a 3.91x multiplier. Should 'The Boss' play similar to 'Tammy', it could possibly get over $90 million. While that certainly is a possibility (there is a significant difference between Flixter scores), critical reviews might hold off the more casual moviegoers instead of McCarthy's established fanbase. Still, it's hard imagining this not getting past $70 million, but $100 million is certainly out of the question.
     'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' continued falling off sharply this weekend, this time dropping 54.5% for $23.4 million. For the sake of comparisons, that third weekend gross is less than 'Furious 7''s $29.2 million (-51.1%) and 'Iron Man 3''s $35.8 million (-50.7%). Poor critical reception and middling word-of-mouth keep on affecting the $250-million comic book adaptation's staying power, both here and overseas. Its $296.6 million is nothing to be ashamed of though, and with $784.3 million worldwide already, it should turn into a profit. Still, at this point predicting a $370 million total would be going to high, and at this rate it is likely the film will fall short of $950 million total.
     On the bright side, 'Zootopia' held steady again, falling just 25.8% for $14.3 million. That is the eighth biggest sixth weekend on record, and outpaces the $7.4 million sixth weekend of last year's 'Inside Out'. With a strong $296 million in the bank so far, $340 million is a guarantee at this point. 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' took a hit from 'The Boss' this weekend, falling 42.3% to gross $6.5 million. Its domestic cume is now up to $46.8 million, and should make it to $65 million before the end of its run.
     In a softer-than-expected fifth place, the $10-million first-person actioner 'Hardcore Henry' made a paltry $5.1 million for a weak $1.7k PTA. That marks the lowest start for distributor STX Entertainment, falling behind the $6.7 million of November bomb 'The Secret in their Eyes' and making up less than half of the studio's hits 'The Gift' ($11.9m) and 'The Boy' ($10.8m). Expectations ranged from $7m-$10m, making this performance even less impressive. It was always a risky move with its first-person aspect, but it ultimately failed to get its target audience (gamers) to get up off the couch and purchase a movie ticket. STX will hope to redeem itself with the June releases 'The Bye Bye Man' and 'Free State of Jones'.
     Opening on Friday with $2 million, 'Henry' fell 7.1% on Saturday to earn $1.9 million and declined 33.3% for $1.2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is an discouraging 2.55-to-1. With mixed reviews (51% on RT) and word-of-mouth ('C+' CinemaScore), it should make less than $15 million total.
     The Top 12 this weekend grossed a lackluster $95.1 million, down 22.6% from last weekend and 24.3% from last year when 'Furious 7' repeated in first while 'The Longest Ride' and 'Ex Machina' opened. Next weekend will be much busier, with the big-budget remake of the animated classic 'The Jungle Book' looking to take the top spot while 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' will go up against 'The Boss' for the top comedy and the action thriller 'Criminal' will hope to provide solid counter-programming against all of those films. 

Monday, April 4, 2016

Weekend Actuals: 'Batman v Superman' Bleeds but Still Leads While 'God's Not Dead 2' Underwhelms

     With a very unimpressive hold, 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' easily kept the box office crown on its head this weekend as the two new wide releases failed to make much of an impact.
     Retaining first place was the $250-million DC tentpole 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', which crashed in its second outing. The follow-up to the 2013 hit 'Man of Steel' plummeted a steep 69.1% from its record opening to $51.3 million. While that is the 26th biggest second weekend of all time, that drop is a very concerning one. The only comic book movies that have suffered worse drops were 'Steel' (-78%), 'Hellboy II: The Golden Army' (-70.7%), 'Jonah Hex', and 'Hulk' (both -69.7%). It faced a steeper decline than 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' (-59.4%), 'The Dark Knight Rises' (-61.4%), 'Iron Man 3' (-58.4%), 'Man of Steel' (-64.6%), 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine' (-69%), 'Watchmen' (-67.7%), and even the 2015 flop 'Fantastic Four' (-68.2%). Unfortunately, this means that, excluding the built-in fanbase, casual moviegoers are being turned of by the terrible reviews and mixed word-of-mouth. Still, the superhero mashup flick has now generated a muscular $260.4 million in only two weeks, but it will have to stabilize next weekend to make much more than $360 million, which is kind of sad since that would only be a margin between its and 'Deadpool''s gross, which had a much lower profile going into the weekend.
     'Zootopia' held steady in second place, decreasing a slim 19.6% for $19.3 million. That's a spectacular hold, as the $150-million animated original continues to benefit from spectacular reviews, word-of-mouth, and a lack of competition. With $275.3 million in the bank, 'Zootopia' will hold up solidly one more time next week before Disney releases the family-oriented 'The Jungle Book' on April 15 (which is getting very positive reaction from critics so far). Still, it should pass the $300 million mark in the next two weeks, and a total north of $335 million is a guarantee.
     'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' rounded out the unchanged Top 3, grossing $11.2 million and falling a solid 37.2% from its already strong opening. The $18-million rom-com sequel has now grossed an encouraging $36.6 million, and will attempt to hold up well next week when the female-targeting Melissa McCarthy starrer 'The Boss' rolls into theaters. With that said, a total north of $60 million should still be in reach.
     'God's Not Dead 2' was placed in an uneventful fourth place, grossing $7.6 million. The $5-million faith-based sequel to the 2014 sleeper hit failed to build upon the original's fanbase and suffered from a general lack of interest. While reviews probably had only a minor impact on the film's performance, they weren't as good as the previous entry (which already had a terrible 15% RT rating). Word-of-mouth was also much more mixed (just 59% on Flixter), which obviously caused it to be much more front-loaded than the original. What's even more disappointing was that the sequel opened in significantly more locations, but managed to fall below the $9.2 million debut of the original. Still, with its modest price tag in mind, this is anything but a flop. A disappointment, maybe, but not a flop.
     'God's Not Dead 2' opened with $2.9 million on Friday (including $400k from Thursday), fell a concerning 8.1% on Saturday to gross $2.7 million, and dropped another 26% on Sunday to make $2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a middling 2.62-to-1, which is way worse than the 3.29-to-1 ratio of the first one. It's unlikely to retain the 6.61x multiplier its predecessor snagged, and it likely won't even get half of that. In that case, $20 million and up is likely for the faith-based sequel, which would be a solid result for the studio but much less impressive compared to the $60.8 million total of the original.
     Fellow PG-rated faith-based drama 'Miracles from Heaven' continued to hold up well in fifth, dropping just 25.2% and making $7.3 million. The $13-million "based on a true story" film starring Jennifer Garner is likely to continue holding up well thanks to healthy word-of-mouth and the underwhelming debut of 'God's Not Dead 2', and $60 million should be a lock.
     'The Divergent Series: Allegiant' continued its unimpressive run, declining 38.9% and grossing $5.8 million. The $110-million threequel in the YA franchise has so far made just $56.4 million, which is just over what its predecessors did in their opening weekends. Unfortunately, this one should peter out at around $70 million, which is a major step down from the previous entries and puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the final installment next summer.
     Some good news to counter that bad news is that the $15-million sci-fi thriller '10 Cloverfield Lane' held up very nicely, easing 23.2% and making $4.6 million. The Bad Robot success has made a strong $63.4 million in four weeks of play, and might make it over $70 million total, which would put it not far behind the $80-million total of its 2008 predecessor.
     Freestyle's 'Meet the Blacks' posted a decent opening in eighth, grossing $4.1 million from 1,015 locations and earning a higher per-theater average than 'God's Not Dead 2' ($4k vs. $3.2k). While it failed to break out among the disappointing grosses of recent spoofs like 'Fifty Shades of Black' and 'Scary Movie 5', it did manage to come in slightly ahead of expectations, and with its low budget in mind it performed rather solidly.
     'Blacks' grossed $1.4 million on Friday, increased a strong 13.3% on Saturday and grossed $1.6 million, and fell 37.2% and made $1 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a strong 2.93-to-1, which is ironically better than the other new wide opener this weekend. However, reviews and word-of-mouth are scathing (17% on RT and 29% on Flixter), so the chances of this holding up well are slim. Still, it should do better than the multipliers of 'Fifty Shades' and 'Scary Movie', which will get it to at least $10 million total.
     'Eye in the Sky' followed closely in ninth with $4 million, up a very strong 324.9% from last weekend. The military drone thriller starring Helen Mirren expanded into 1,029 locations this weekend and was met with promising results. With universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike, 'Eye in the Sky' should continue to hold up well and expand in the coming weeks as it has now totaled a very respectable $6.1 million.
     The Top 12 this weekend gathered $122.8 million, down a sharp 49.9% from last weekend most likely because of the steep drop last week's and this week's champion experienced. It was also down a sizable 43.6% from last year when 'Furious 7' exploded to the top spot with a then record Easter opening.
     Next weekend features the likes of the aforementioned 'The Boss', which will attempt to replicate the success of McCarthy's previous outings, and STX's 'Hardcore Henry', which uniquely brings the first-person perspective recognizable in shooters like 'Call of Duty' and 'Halo' to the big screen for the first time. In limited release are the Jake Gyllenhaal led 'Demolition' and Anna Kendrick/Sam Rockwell led 'Mr. Right'.

Saturday, April 2, 2016

Friday Report: 'Batman v Superman' Falls But Still Leads, 'God's Not Dead 2' Underperform

     All hopes that the superhero blockbuster 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' would be critic-proof and immune to mixed word-of-mouth were eliminated this weekend as the box office juggernaut fell harder than even the most front-loaded of them all. Opening this weekend were 'God's Not Dead 2' and 'Meet the Blacks', with the former coming in below expectations and the latter coming in ahead of them.
     Easily retaining first place on Friday, DC's $250-million superhero tentpole 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' plummeted an awful 81.2% from its massive opening day to gross $15.4 million. Horrid reviews and middling word-of-mouth is obviously having an effect on the film, as it now looks like only the big fans and some casual moviegoers are checking it out at this point. That huge drop is worse than 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' (-74.9%), 'The Dark Knight Rises' (-76.6%), 'Spider-Man 3' (-71.3%), 'Man of Steel' (-71.5%), 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine' (-75.8%), 'Watchmen' (-78.4%), 'Hellboy II: The Golden Army' (-76.1%), and even the 2015 flop 'Fantastic Four' (-78.2%). In fact, it's the worst drop for a big-budget comic book movie in history! Three of the previously mentioned films had worse critic or audience scores ('Wolverine', 'Fant4stic', and 'Watchmen', although it's going to come in lower than the latter by next week), which makes this even more embarassing. However, the mega-budget superhero mashup has so far grossed a strong $224.4 million in two weeks, which ranks as the 11th biggest eight-day gross ever. Expect a sophomore frame of around $50 million, which is a solid figure when you're looking at just the grosses but disappointing once you factor in the percentage drops.
     'Zootopia' remained in second place this weekend, grossing an estimated $5.6 million on Friday and dropping a solid 41.5% from last week. The $150-million animated dramedy from Walt Disney Animation Studios has grossed a very impressive $261.5 million in 29 days of release, and should make around $20 million for the weekend. 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' continued to occupy third with $3.4 million, down a slightly concerning 53.3% from opening day. However, it should have strong holds going through the weekend, and with $28.8 million already, it shouldn't disappoint. A weekend of around $11 million is likely.
     'God's Not Dead 2' came in below expectations yesterday, grossing $3 million (including $400k from Thursday night showings). Despite opening in about three times as many locations, there just wasn't a need for another one of these films, especially since there's already a couple strong faith-based performers in the market place already that are doing more memorable business. Its Friday haul was just ahead of the impressive $2.8 million take of its 2014 predecessor, and adjusting for inflation just makes it look even worse. However, this shouldn't be considered a loss as its production budget is a mere $5 million, and it will easily make that back in the next couple of days. However, when it comes to expectations, this is a slight disappointment as many projected a $10m-$15m debut. Instead, $8 million seems more doable.
     In a dismal seventh place, Freestyle's 'Meet the Black's played like many recent spoofs and brought in $1.4 million. That's below January's 'Fifty Shades of Black', which opened to a poor $2.3 million on its way to a $5.9 million. Should 'Blacks' follow that films patter, a $3.5 million weekend is in store. However, given that there isn't a Tomatometer score for it yet and early word-of-mouth is extremely negative (27% on RT), a weekend of around $3 million is more likely.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' - $51.8 million (-68.8%)
2. 'Zootopia' - $19.7 million (-17.9%)
3. 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' - $11.6 million (-35.2%)
4. 'God's Not Dead 2' - $8.3 million
5. 'Miracles from Heaven' - $8 million (-17.5%)
-.  'Meet the Blacks' - $3.2 million

Monthly Forecast: April 2016

After March's strong performers like 'Zootopia', '10 Cloverfield Lane', and of course 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', April looks to be a bit quieter, but with promising contenders like 'The Boss', 'Hardcore Henry', 'The Jungle Book', and 'Keanu', it should still find itself in the Top 10 April grosses of all time. I'm excluding 'God's Not Dead 2' and 'Meet the Blacks' since Friday figures came in yesterday, which I will write about in a separate article today.

The Boss

This should kick off April's slew of potential blockbusters. Melissa McCarthy is a very powerful draw at the box office. Ever since the breakout success of 2011's 'Bridesmaids', McCarthy has starred in numerous original hits like 'Identity Thief' ($134.5m), 'The Heat' ($159.6m), and 'Spy' ($110.8m). Even when her films don't reach $100 million domestically, studios shouldn't be shedding tears over the $84.5 million total of 2014's 'Tammy'. What's even more eye-popping is that none of those films have opened to more than $40 million, which means that McCarthy's films generally pertain excellent holding power throughout their runs thanks to (usually) strong reviews and (almost certainly) healthy word-of-mouth. Kristen Bell, Peter Dinklage, and Kathy Bates should also provide some starpower to appeal to their own respective fanbases. However, although all of her post-'Bridesmaids' films have been successful, a steady decline in grosses is also notable. The aforementioned 'Spy' and 'Tammy' failed to make as much of an impact as 'Heat' and 'Identity Thief', which may be a sign of McCarthy's fading drawing power. However, it's hard to think that this will be totally worthless, and an opening and total above $15 million and $50 million is pretty much a guarantee.
Predicted Opening: $17 million
Predicted Total: $63 million

Hardcore Henry

Predicting the grosses for this one is going to be tough. I mean, there isn't anything like it. 'Hardcore Henry' is the first theatrical film that utilizes the first-person perspective for an entire movie. Buzz for this film is pretty encouraging, with a decent +95% want-to-see rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It also earned 13.2 million views on STX Entertainment's YouTube channel, with a 30-to-1 like-to-dislike ratio. Gamers could also be interested in putting down the controller and going to the movies because of the said first-person perspective, which seems as if it will appeal to that kind of audience specifically. Reviews are also pretty positive with an 89% rating on RT, although the average rating is a concerning 6.1/10. Casual audiences might also think that this will just be too annoying and uncomfortable to sit through in a big movie theater, so they might want to sit out on this. However, STX has only had one miss ('Secret in their Eyes'), and 'Hardcore' should join the likes of 'The Gift' and 'The Boy' as the growing library of hits belonging to STX.
Predicted Opening: $11.5 million
Predicted Total: $29.5 million

Barbershop: The Next Cut

No one's really expecting much from the threequel in the once-popular 'Barbershop' franchise. The first two did very well, exceeding expectations everywhere. The first one in 2002 opened with an excellent $20.6 million, held up well, and finished with $75.8 million. The second was a bit less leggy, but was a strong opener nevertheless with $24.2 million and a grand total of $65.1 million. And it only gets better from there when you take into account ticket price inflation. The cast is pretty stacked, which gives it a lot of appeal. Ice Cube has built up an even greater following in recent years thanks to 'Ride Along' and 'Straight Outta Compton', Cedric the Entertainer keeps his reputation alive thanks to the hit sitcom 'The Soul Man', Regina Hall is recognizable from the 'Scary Movie' franchise, Anthony Anderson and Deon Cole star in the popular sitcom 'Black-ish', and Eve, Nicki Minaj, and Common are draws for the obvious reasons. However, long-awaited comedy sequels don't necessarily translate into bigger grosses. For example, 'Dumb and Dumber To' ended its run with a solid $86.2 million, but fell below the $127.2 million total of the 1994 original. 'Zoolander 2' did worse, failing to reach even the $15.5 million debut of its 2001 predecessor, and inflation only makes it more laughable. Ultimately, while it won't be an outright bomb, I just don't see it climbing too high both in opening grosses and closing grosses.
Predicted Opening: $14 million
Predicted Total: $34 million

Criminal

Coming off the poorly received 'Self/Less', studios want to see if audiences still care for star-studded action movies featuring someone's conscious getting put into someone else's body. This one arguably has more starpower, as not only does it have 'Self/Less' star Ryan Reynolds (who also redeemed himself with 'Deadpool'), Kevin Costner, Gary Oldman, Tommy Lee Jones, and the new Wonder Woman Gal Gadot make major appearances in the movie as well. The premise is definitely intriguing (CIA operative's memories transferred to a dangerous criminal to recover important details), so casual moviegoers might at least read up on it. However, Costner isn't the draw he was back then, and has failed to bring any break-out hits these past couple years. The same goes for the rest of the cast members, as 'Paranoia' (Oldman), 'The Family' (Jones), and 'Triple 9' (Gadot) have all underwhelmed or bombed. Still, this should outdo all of those on opening weekend, and could even pass the totals of 'Paranoia' and 'Triple 9' in one weekend.
Predicted Opening: $13 million
Predicted Total: $34.5 million

The Jungle Book

It looks like Disney has another hit on its hands. The latest in the franchise of live-action remakes of the studio's popular animated tales, the long-awaited adaptation of 'The Jungle Book' will most likely make an interesting entrance when it opens on April 15. Disney has had huge successes with past live-action remakes, kicking things off with 'Alice in Wonderland' (whose sequel opens this May), which blew away expectations and grossed an outstanding $116.1 million and finished it off with $334.2 million, becoming Disney's tenth highest-grossing film domestically. 2014's 'Maleficent' followed, as the Angelina Jolie starrer also demolished expectations and earned $69.4 million, topping out at an impressive $241.4 million. 'Cinderella' is the latest hit, opening on the first weekend of March 2015 with $67.9 million and closing with $201.2 million. It also helps that the original 'Jungle Book' is one of Disney's highest-grossing animated classics ever with $141.8 million (including $68.1m from two re-issues in 1984 and 1990). Adjusted for inflation, it ranks 32nd with a whopping $641 million. Although it doesn't actually show the actors, the voice cast is very impressive, with Scarlett Johansson (the Marvel Cinematic Universe), Idris Elba ('Thor' franchise), Lupita Nyong'o ('Star Wars: The Force Awakens'), Ben Kingsley ('Gandhi', 'Shutter Island'), Christopher Walken ('The Deer Hunter'), and Bill Murray ('Ghostbusters'). One worrying factor though is the declining grosses of each remake. 'Maleficent' came in 27.8% below 'Alice', and 'Cinderella' fell 16.7% off of the former. One major concern is that 'Jungle Book' will continue the declining grosses. It opens just one week from fellow big-budget fantasy 'The Hunstman: Winter's War', and will have to compete for family audiences with 'Captain America: Civil War' and 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' in May, which will most likely hurt its staying power. It's likely that the film will subvert these cons and become a very strong performer throughout its run, and has the potential to pass 'Cinderella' and put an end to the streak of declining grosses.
Predicted Opening: $70 million
Predicted Total: $235 million 

Elvis & Nixon

This should make a much more modest impact on the box office. The cast looks great, with Michael Shannon ('Man of Steel', 'Midnight Special') and Kevin Spacey ('Se7en', 'American Beauty') in the titular roles with promising co-stars Alex Pettyfer ('Magic Mike'), Johnny Knoxville ('Bad Grandpa'), Colin Hanks (sitcom 'Life in Pieces'), Evan Peters ('X-Men: Apocalypse'), and Ashley Benson ('Spring Breakers'). However, the director isn't well-known, and its R-rating could restrict younger audiences who are interested in the topic from seeing it. The 70's setting doesn't help either, as old-timey films have struggled to attract audiences recently ('Hail, Caesar!', 'The Finest Hours'). Awareness is pretty low, as only 500 users have voted on the want-to-see poll on Rotten Tomatoes, and even then only 88% want to go out and watch this. Overall, this just doesn't look like it will do too well, and as a result I have low expectations.
Predicted Opening: $5.5 million
Predicted Total: $19 million

The Huntsman: Winter's War

This big-budget prequel/sequel/spin-off to the 2012 hit 'Snow White and the Huntsman' has low prospects, most likely because it just doesn't look that appealing. Despite the admirable cast, 'Huntsman' seems like a generic fantasy movie with tons of CGI and lots of fast-paced action. The absence of Kristen Stewart will likely turn off younger fans, and it opens just one week after the highly-anticipated 'The Jungle Book' and two weeks before the mega-blockbuster 'Captain America: Civil War'. While it shouldn't make too much of a dent in its performance, its similarity to 'Frozen' could make the film come across as more childish and immature than the dark brooding film Universal wants it to be. Sure, maybe the older fans of the animated hit might turn up, but besides them and the original's fanbase, reaching out to moviegoers is going to be pretty tough considering that there are many other more better-looking films out there.
Predicted Opening: $23.5 million
Predicted Total: $58 million

Keanu

Based on the comedy of funnymen and Comedy Central stars Key & Peele, 'Keanu' brings the duo to the big screen for the first time, tasking them with taking back a kidnapped famous kitten. Both the stars and the premise should be enough to draw in some curious moviegoers and a notable portion of their fanbase, and the marketing so far is trying to reach out to just those kinds of people. After so many raunchy comedies about hangovers are starring Seth Rogen, this one looks like a breath of fresh air given that this premise has basically been unheard of. Cats also somehow have a way with creating a lot of buzz on social media, and a major movie that centers around one will definitely become a conversation topic in the weeks to come. However, although they may have a large fanbase, Key & Peele are literally unproven box office draws. They may have made cameos here and there, but it would be unreasonable to think audiences spent money on a movie ticket just to see a couple seconds of their favorite comedians in the theater. The amount of competition is also a bit worrying, as it opens two weeks after 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' and just one week before 80% of audiences will be occupied with 'Captain America: Civil War'. While that could hurt its holding power, it shouldn't translate into a horrible opening weekend, which in turn could lead to a profitable run.
Predicted Opening: $21 million
Predicted Total: $51.5 million

Mother's Day

Ever heard of Garry Marshall? He's the guy who brought you holiday-themed romantic comedies 'Valentine's Day' and 'New Year's Eve', both received very negatively by audiences and critics alike. The former holds an 18% RT critics rating and a 47% Flixter score while the latter has just 7% on RT and 45% on Flixter. Not to mention that, although 'Valentine's Day' performed very strongly, 'New Year's Eve' fell of significantly from its "predecessor's" gross. 'Valentine's Day' made more in one weekend what 'New Year's' did in its entire run! Just like those films, it boasts a very impressive lineup of stars, including Jennifer Aniston, Kate Hudson, Julia Roberts, and Jason Sudeikis. Unfortunately, that doesn't necessarily mean the film's going to be an outright blockbuster. Aniston's recent track record is pretty inconsistent, Kate Hudson isn't a proven draw at the box office, Roberts hasn't starred in a movie that's grossed over $80 million since 2010, and Sudeikis is also pretty hit and miss. Overall, don't be surprised if it ends up opening lower than $15 million, but it admittedly does have potential to be quite leggy in the long run.
Predicted Opening: $11 million
Predicted Total: $36 million

Ratchet & Clank

Based on a long-running video game franchise that hasn't had a new entry in nearly three years, showing off an impressive voice cast, marketed with lots of cheesy taglines and jokes, riddled with low anticipation and mixed expectations, and overall positive reception from the trailers, this looks like it will do modestly. Not good, not bad. Just modestly. While there may still be fans of the series, the aforementioned latest installment came out in November 2013, and only now a movie's coming out? The voice cast shouldn't be looked over though, with stand-outs such as Rosario Dawson, Paul Giamatti, John Goodman, Sylvester Stallone, and Bella Thorne. The marketing is pretty cheesy, which will definitely entice kids to see it but will ultimately make the adults make the final decision. If you look on the forum on Rotten Tomatoes, expectations aren't great, but aren't terrible either. Plus, a +92% want-to-see rating is a bit low, although this is arguably one of the more low-profile films coming out this month. The reception to the trailers was overwhelmingly positive however, so it has that going for it. Just expect this film to do decent at the box office. No opening over $10 million or under $5 million would be reasonable, and a total of no more than $30 million and no less than  $10 million would also be plausible.
Predicted Opening: $8.5 million
Predicted Total: $23.5 million