Thursday, September 24, 2015

Weekend Forecast: Audiences to Go to 'Hotel Transylvania', Meet 'The Intern', and Avoid 'The Green Inferno'

     A mid-September sequel to a very successful film that was generally well-liked among audiences should be able to take the top spot this weekend once again, while a Robert De Niro / Anne Hathaway collaboration should nab an impressive debut and a low-profile, low-budget cannibal horror should fail to scare up big numbers.
     Animated comedy sequel 'Hotel Transylvania 2' is obviously the most likely candidate for first place this weekend. Like last week's 'Scorch Trials', 'Transylvania' is a relatively modestly-budgeted sequel that audiences (for the most part) enjoyed that was released in mid-September. Sony is also playing it in at least 225 more locations in hopes of at least passing $40 million. Unfortunately, that will likely not be happening as reviews (38% on Rotten Tomatoes) and anticipation (+96%) pale in comparison to the first. Star Adam Sandler has had a hard time finding an audience as well, since his latest films stumbled upon their opening ('Pixels' with $24m and 'Men, Women, and Children' with $306.4k). However, families don't mind as 'Bedtime Stories' ($110.1m) and the first 'Hotel Transylvania' ($148.3m) have done remarkably well, and social media activity has been good too (an impressive 9.4m Facebook fans and a 40:1 ratio of positive-to-negative mentions on Twitter today. The $80-million animated fantasy comedy should perform similarly to 'Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2', which had a $34 million opening. Somewhere around that figure is likely.
     Nancy Meyers and Warner Bros. proudly presents clever counter-programming this weekend with the PG-13 comedy 'The Intern', starring Robert De Niro and Anne Hathaway. Costing $35 million, the odds are currently for 'Intern' for numerous reasons. First, after a summer of R-rated comedies and big-budget action-packed blockbusters, older audiences would probably like to finally see a movie that is right up their ally instead of a special effects bonanza. The cast is pretty impressive too, as the stars have had major successes recently (De Niro with 'Last Vegas' ($63.9m) and Hathaway with 'Les Miserables' ($148.8m)). Also, the director is well-known with hits like 'It's Complicated' ($112.7m) and 'Something's Gotta Give' ($124.7m). The only thing that's really going against 'Intern' is the critical reception (49% on RT), but that still hasn't hindered anticipation (+97%). A weekend of around $14-$22 million is a lock, which is the general range of Meyer's films' openings.
     Gory R-rated cannibal horror-thriller 'The Green Inferno' debuts in over 1,500 locations, though that probably won't save it from having a lackluster opening. The long-delayed $6-million horror from Eli Roth has so far experienced middling reviews (45% on RT) and weak anticipation (+86%), meaning that general awareness is pretty low. There have barely been any commercials anyway, so the marketing isn't really pushing it that much. Roth's largest opening so far is 'Hostel''s $19.6 million opening while the lowest is 'Hostel Part II', ironically, with $8.2 million. 'Inferno' will probably take that place with a weekend of just over $2.5 million, and with likely front-loading already, will most likely not make it that far.
    
Weekend Forecast
1. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $33.8 million
2. 'The Intern' - $20.4 million
3. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $15.7 million (-48.2%)
4. 'Black Mass' - $14.3 million (-36.7%)
5. 'The Visit' - $5.8 million (-50%)
-   'The Green Inferno' - $2.9 million

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