Monthly Forecast: February 2016

     Following a January that benefited mostly from 2015 releases ('Revenant' was released on Christmas Day), the month of February should see more activity from new releases than holdovers but it probably won't reach the current record total ($818.2m). I expect "a different kind of superhero story" to take the monthly crown this year and some strong runner-ups.

The Choice

Nicholas Sparks movies generally do pretty well, but recently, they've been doing modestly at best. The last real hit in this particular genre is 'Safe Haven' from 2013. Since then, 2014's 'The Best of Me' ($26.8m) and 2015's 'The Longest Ride' ($37.4m) wound up as the lowest-grossing Sparks films since 2002's 'A Walk to Remember'. With a weaker cast than the previous two movies and obvious audience fatigue, 'The Choice' should become the lowest-grossing Sparks movie yet.
Predicted Opening: $7 million
Predicted Total: $19 million

Hail, Caesar!

 The latest film from the Coen brothers, 'Hail, Caesar!' features a stellar cast (Josh Brolin, George Clooney, Ralph Fiennes, Tilda Swinton, Scarlett Johansson) and the major audience appeal for the directors. The most recent Coens film to star Clooney is the 2008 flick 'Burn After Reading', which debuted to $19.1 million in September and closed with $60.4 million. While it's hard to imagine 'Caesar' will reach those heights, it should do in one weekend what 'Inside Llewyn Davis' did in its entire run.
Predicted Opening: $15.5 million
Predicted Total: $50 million

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

This one's a bit tougher to predict. Zombie movies have a spotty track record ('World War Z' and 'Warm Bodies' did well but 'Resident Evil: Retribution' and 'Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse' flopped domestically). The cast isn't well-known (except for Matt Smith, but he's in a supporting role), and the director's '17 Again' was a modest success that didn't receive overly positive feedback. However, the aforementioned 'Warm Bodies' still performed solidly during Super Bowl weekend with $20.4 million. If 'Pride' can retain at least three-fourths of that number in its opening, it will be in great shape.
Predicted Opening: $13.5 million
Predicted Total: $44 million

Deadpool

Coming off the massive success of 'X-Men: Days of Future Past' is the franchise spin-off 'Deadpool', the highly-anticipated cinematic take on the raunchy, foul-mouthed, chimichanga-loving superhero that gets his proper treatment after the disappointing outing in 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine'. The R-rated action comedy from Fox looks like it has more potential than that and fellow spin-off 'The Wolverine', which is the lowest-grossing film in the franchise domestically. The character is extremely popular among comic book fans, and on social media it's been on fire (the first Red Band trailer has over 36 million views on YouTube). The marketing campaign is absolutely wonderful, from the '12 Days of Deadpool' online event to Ryan Reynolds serving chimichangas at the Super Bowl. Expect this to be one of the franchise's best-performing films in all of its history.
Predicted Opening: $70.5 million ($82.5 million 4-day)
Predicted Total: $184 million

How to Be Single

'Fifty Shades of Grey' was a massive success last year, making over $570 million worldwide against a $40-million budget. Star Dakota Johnson returns to the big screen on February 12 alongside Rebel Wilson in the R-rated romantic comedy 'How to Be Single'. While it should have a much smaller budget, it should also bring in much smaller grosses. The last major rom-com was July's 'Trainwreck', which made $110.2 million domestically. It's very unlikely it will reach that number, and it will probably barely make more than that film's $30-million weekend.

Predicted Opening: $11.5 million ($14 million 4-day)
Predicted Total: $30.5 million

Zoolander No. 2

Though the first film underperformed in 2001 ($45.2m domestic) and got modest reviews (64% on RT), audiences seemed to dig it (80% on Flixter). Since then, it's developed a large cult following. With the added star power of Kristen Wiig and Penelope Cruz as well as the returning cast of Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson, and Will Ferrell (who probably has the most drawing power), the cast is one of the strongest of the year. However, a massive cult following and a strong cast don't necessarily mean that the film's going to be a blockbuster. Many films last year (i.e. 'Mortdecai', 'Jupiter Ascending') had fairly respectable casts but bombed hard at the box office. While I wouldn't call this a bomb, audience overlap with the other new wide releases as well as some minor controversy should keep this from being a huge breakout either.
Predicted Opening: $24 million ($27.5 million 4-day)
Predicted Total: $62 million

Race

After the underwhelming performance from Will Smith's 'Concussion' ($33.9m and counting), 'Race' will try to get into the big leagues of sport dramas after the successes of '42' ($95m) and 'McFarland, USA' ($44.5m). The Olympics drama doesn't have a very strong cast, but its protagonist's legacy and similar genre performances fill it with potential. 'Race' will probably make a lot less than '42', but it is very likely it will end up in the same range as 2014 biopic 'Get On Up' ($30.7m) and the aforementioned 'McFarland'.
Predicted Opening: $12 million
Predicted Total: $41 million

Risen

The first Christian-based film going wide this year will be the more action-centered 'Risen'. The closest comparison here is 'Son of God', which debuted to over $25 million two years ago. It's very unlikely 'Risen' will get that far, and movies in this genre rarely get good reviews. Audiences, however, are more kind to these types of films, and Sony has experienced great success with past faith-based films. Expect this one to open to what 'War Room' did last year, albeit with much weaker legs.
Predicted Opening: $10 million
Predicted Total: $24 million

The Witch

A24's latest release, 'The Witch', already has great potential. The last A24 entry, last April's 'Ex Machina', opened with $5.3 million in its nationwide expansion and went on to gross $25.4 million. Reviews are already in, and so far they are looking great (88% on RT). Anticipation isn't out of this world (a decent +96% want-to-see score on RT), but is solid considering its genre. 'Witch' will likely claim the record for A24's biggest domestic opening, but should have slightly weaker holding power compared to 'Machina'.
Predicted Opening: $8.5 million
Predicted Total: $26 million

Eddie the Eagle

The second Olympics-themed February release this year is 'Eddie the Eagle' from Fox. It stars an impressive cast of Christopher Walken, Hugh Jackman, and Taron Egerton (who starred in last year's breakout hit 'Kingsman: The Secret Service'). However, that's pretty much the only thing working in its favor. Not only does it have to compete with 'Race' for a similar target audience, 'Eddie' will need to stand out from a pretty crowded market, which it will probably fail in doing so.
Predicted Opening: $5 million
Predicted Total: $14 million

Gods of Egypt

Unfortunately, this has even less box office potential. Big-budget original sci-fi/fantasy films (whether or not the director/cast is well known) almost never do well. With a production budget said to be around $140 million (the same as 2014's notorious flop 'Exodus: Gods and Kings'), this has no chance at making that figure back. From the usual genre fare and "white-washing" controversy (where most of the Egyptian characters are played by Caucasian actors) to the low anticipation (+93% on RT), 'Gods' should play similar to 'Exodus'. Hopefully, overseas figures will be seen as strong numbers (just like 'Exodus').
Predicted Opening: $19 million
Predicted Total: $45.5 million


Triple 9

'Triple 9' is probably the trickiest film to predict in the month of February. The cast should strongly appeal to older audiences, but they also aren't guaranteed box office draws (Chiwetel Ejiofor stumbled with 'Secret in their Eyes', Woody Harrelson and Anthony Mackie haven't found much success outside the 'Hunger Games' and Marvel films). The director has found modest success with 2012's 'Lawless', but has been absent from film-making since then until now. The "dirty cop" genre hasn't found much success in recent years, although crime movies in general have been doing pretty good. This looks more like a mid-range film than a flop or a true hit, so it's likely it will make twice as much as 'Secret in their Eyes' did, both in opening weekend and its domestic total.
Predicted Opening: $13.5 million
Predicted Total: $40 million 

Weekend Estimates: Huge Storm Hinders Box Office Grosses While 'Revenant' Comes Out on Top

     After Winter Storm Jonas caused many theaters to close on the East Coast, the weekend box office was down a sizable percentage from last weekend and last year. However, it did give 'Revenant' a chance to claim the weekend crown. Meanwhile, the three new wide releases this weekend were pretty modest, all of them opening in line with expectations.

     In first place, the $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio led Western thriller 'The Revenant' took in $16 million. That's a 49.6% decrease from last weekend, although the aforementioned storm probably held its grosses back (same for many of the other films this weekend). 'Revenant' has been riding on a wave of positive reviews (82% on RT) and word-of-mouth (86% on Flixter) as well as the buzz about its impressive 12 Oscar nominations (including Best Picture). With $119.2 million in the bank so far, 'Revenant' should top out at around $155 million. Overseas, it passed the $100 million mark and has now grossed over $220 million worldwide.

     'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' was up one spot, making $14.1 million and declining 46.6%. The $200-million J. J. Abrams directed sci-fi epic has amassed an astonishing and record-breaking $879.1 million in just six weeks of play. Don't be surprised if the franchise revival makes it to $915 million before the end of its run. Worldwide, the cume now stands at a terrific $1.94 billion, third on the all-time chart (it passed 'Jurassic World' to become the fourth biggest film overseas).

     'Ride Along 2' was expected to have a second weekend drop in line with its predecessor (-48.7%), but instead played like a typical Tim Story sequel and fell 64.7% to $12.5 million. That is in line with the Tim Story's franchise seconds like 'Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer' (-65.5%/$20m) and 'Think Like a Man Too' (-64.7%/$10.3m). 'Ride Along' was also only a bit better than 'Ted 2' (-66.7%/$11.2m) and worse than 'Pitch Perfect 2' (-55.5%$30.8m). Still, it should turn into a profit for Universal as it has currently earned $59.1 million domestically (compared to the $75.5m 10-day take of the first 'Ride Along'). 'Ride Along 2' should now finish with around $80 million.
     Leading the newcomers was the low-budget R-rated comedy 'Dirty Grandpa', which collected $11.1 million for a $3.8k per-theater average. Unfortunately, the starpower of Robert De Niro and Zac Efron, who aren't exactly guaranteed box office draws anymore, couldn't help 'Grandpa' break out among the crowded marketplace. It opened below De Niro's other most recent film 'The Intern' (which co-starred Anne Hathaway and earned $17.7m) and a little bit above Efron's 'That Awkward Moment' (co-starring Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan and debuted with $8.7m).
     'Dirty Grandpa' opened with $4.3 million on Friday (including $660k from Thursday night), experienced an uptick of 4% on Saturday and grossed $4.5 million, and fell 47.5% on Sunday to the tune of $2.3 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.58-to-1, which is better than 'Moment' (2.18-to-1) but below the 2.85-to-1 ratio of 'The Intern'. With terrible reviews (7% on RT) and mixed word-of-mouth ('B' CinemaScore), a $35 million finish is likely.
     The $10-million "living doll" horror from STX Entertainment 'The Boy' opened with a solid $10.8 million for a $4k average. Although it did open a bit below 'The Forest' ($12.7m), which opened two weeks ago, it is still a nice rebound for STX after 'The Secret in their Eyes' disappointed in November with just $6.7 million following an impressive first outing with 'The Gift' ($11.9m opening). Surprisingly, it was one of the more back-loaded new releases of the weekend, which is kind of odd considering the storm and general genre performance.

     Beginning with $3.8 million on Friday, 'The Boy' increased an encouraging 19.9% on Saturday to make $4.6 million and dropped 47.7% to earn $2.4 million. That places the ratio at 2.84-to-1, which is actually better than 'The Forest' (2.54-to-1) and 'Annabelle' (2.39-to-1). It's unlikely to have 'Gift'-type legs, or even 'Secret', but it should do better than the two previously mentioned horror flicks. It should follow a pattern similar to last June's 'Insidious Chapter 3', which would get it to a pretty nice $25 million grand total. However, due to worse reviews (29% on RT) and word-of-mouth (53% Flixter score), a $22 million finish seems more likely.

     In a disappointing sixth place, the $38-million YA-adapted sci-fi action film 'The Fifth Wave' debuted softly with an estimated $10.3 million. That is way less than half of what 'Ender's Game' earned in 2013 ($27m), and is even below 2008's 'The Spiderwick Chronicles' ($19m). It was at least on par with the likes of 'The Giver' ($12.3m) and 'The Host' ($10.6m), though that's not saying much. However, it is doing much better overseas, so it should gain traction there.
     'Fifth Wave' opened on Friday with $3.5 million, increased 24.8% on Saturday to gross $4.4 million, and declined 43% on Sunday for a $2.5 million take. That is a rather impressive 2.94-to-1 ratio, better than 'The Host' (2-to-1), 'The Maze Runner' (2.88-to-1), 'Ender's Game' (2.76-to-1), and 'The Giver' (2.56-to-1). This is an even stranger outcome than 'The Boy', as it is a January release and an admittedly badly-marketed YA adaptation with not-so-cheery reviews (18% RT rating) and abysmal audience reception (52% Flixter score). However, when it comes to long-term prospects, YA films that perform like this are fairly hard to predict. It's most likely to fail to get a 3x weekend multiplier, but it should hold up better than 'Host' and 'Ender's Game'. $28 million should be passed before the end of its run.
     '13 Hours' enjoyed one of the better holds of the weekend, pulling in $9 million that represents a 44.2% drop from its opening. Strong word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore' and 88% Flixter rating) continues to overcome modest reviews (60% on RT) and some controversy that pops up here and there. With $32.8 million so far, '13 Hours' should close with around $45 million.
    'Daddy's Home' ($4.9m/-48.3%) and 'Norm of the North' ($3.8m/-44.1%) occupied eighth and ninth place this weekend. The latter experienced a solid hold following a mediocre-at-best debut. 'Daddy's Home' has so far grossed $138.5 million and should be able to reach $150 million while 'Norm' has brought in $14 million and is looking at a $20 million domestic cume.
     With glowing reviews, outstanding word-of-mouth, and five Academy Award nominations, 'The Big Short' continued to hold up well despite the massive storm. Dipping just 40.1%, the $28-million comedy/drama raked in $3.2 million, adding up to a $56.4 million total. 'Big Short' will likely stick around in theaters for a while, and $65 million definitely isn't out of the question.
     The Top 12 this weekend was heavily affected by Winter Storm Jonas, barely missing the $100-million mark and making $99.2 million (-34.4% from last weekend). The Top 12 gross was also off 29.8% from last year when 'American Sniper' continued to dominate with monster grosses.
     Next week sees the releases of a big-budget animated three-quel, otherwise known as the Jack Black led 'Kung Fu Panda 3', a risky box office bet led by a stellar cast called 'The Finest Hours', and a comedy spoof on last February's massive hit 'Fifty Shades of Grey', this time called 'Fifty Shades of Black'. So in other words, next weekend is definitely going to be a lot more interesting (hopefully).

Weekend Actuals: 'Ride Along' Rolls Out with Solid Debut, '13 Hours' Doesn't Win or Lose, 'Norm' Bombs

     What do you get when you open a buddy comedy with Ice Cube and Kevin Hart, a bloody R-rated war film directed by the guy you only recognize from making huge robots fight each other, and a low-budget, terribly-reviewed animated film against a bunch of Oscar-nominated movies on the same weekend? A pretty mixed bag, apparently, as none exceeded expectations in any way but weren't outright flops either (except for the animated film).

     In first place was the $40-million Kevin Hart/Ice Cube led buddy comedy from Universal 'Ride Along 2', which opened below the first's $41.5 million three-day debut and grossed $35.2 million from 3,175 locations ($41m four-day). While that is the eight biggest January opening on record and the fifth best MLK four-day opening, it's below expectations and significantly down from the aforementioned $41.5 million debut of the first. However, everybody knew it would never match the heights of its predecessor as comedy sequels rarely outdo their predecessors. At least its drop wasn't as big as recent comedy sequels 'Horrible Bosses 2' (off 44.9%) and 'Ted 2' (down 38.4%). 'Ride Along' performed more in line with last March's 'Get Hard', which opened to $33.8 million in 3,212 theaters, and 2010's 'The Other Guys', which debuted to $35.5 million from 3,651 locations.
     It opened to $11.9 million on Friday, increased 13.1% on Saturday to make $13.5 million, and dropped 26.7% on Sunday for a $9.9 million take. It fell 41.6% on MLK Day to make $5.8 million. The (three-day) weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.96-to-1, which is slightly better than the 2.88-to-1 ratio of 'Ride Along' from 2014. It's way better than the R-rated comedy sequels 'Ted 2' (2.52-to-1) and 'Horrible Bosses 2' (2.5-to-1). If it follows the patterns of 'Ted 2' ('Horrible Bosses' isn't exactly a good comparison due to its Wednesday opening), the sequel will wind up with around $83 million. If 'Ride Along' plays like 'Get Hard', a $91 million finish is in store. Reviews are much worse than those films (an awful 14% on RT), but word-of-mouth is more promising (64% Flixter and 'B+' CinemaScore). The PG-13 rating should make it more accessible to younger audiences than those R-rated openers, so it should hold up a bit better. 'Ride Along' should finish in the $95-$100 million range.
     In a very strong second place, Fox's $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio led Western thriller 'The Revenant' expanded into 3,559 locations this weekend and grossed $31.8 million, down a slim 20.2% from last weekend. 'Revenant' has been holding up very well throughout its run, and should continue to do so due to the 12 Oscar nominations it scored on Thursday. Counting the estimated $37.5 million it brought in over the four-day weekend, the film has now earned a stellar $95.7 million. A finish of around $155 million still seems likely.
     'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' yielded the weekend crown and occupied third place with $26.3 million ($33m four-day). That is down a respectable 37.8% from its fourth outing in theaters, and with an outstanding 5 Oscar noms it should keep holding up well. 'Star Wars' has so far brought in $859 million, and a $905 million total is now a guarantee.

     '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' failed to replicate the massive successes of previous mid-January war films like 'Lone Survivor' ($37.8m), 'Zero Dark Thirty' ($24.4m), and of course 'American Sniper' ($89.3m). While the $50-million Michael Bay directed war flick was never expected to, it still had the potential to break out among audiences. Unfortunately, reviews weren't even close to being as strong as the three previously mentioned movies (a middling 59% on RT), although word-of-mouth is about on par (87% Flixter and 'A' CinemaScore). The political controversy surrounding the film (including the recently released statement made by Hillary Clinton) might have also turned off some moviegoers as well. '13 Hours' pulled in an estimated $16.2 million in three days and $19.2 million in four, behind the pre-release predictions of a $18-$20 million three-day weekend and a $22-$25 million four-day weekend.

     Earning $5.9 million on Friday (including $900k from Thursday night showings), '13 Hours' declined 2.3% on Saturday to earn $5.8 million, and dropped 21.1% on Sunday to earn $4.5 million. Earning $3 million on MLK Day (a 33.3% decrease from Sunday), '13 Hours' should experience lighter holds than Bay's previous efforts. It's the first Bay film to get a good Flixter score since the first 'Transformers' back in 2007. However, that score could be inflated a bit due to its nature as a modern warfare film. It's unlikely '13 Hours' will have 'American Sniper' or 'Zero Dark Thirty' legs due to the weaker reviews and weaker starpower. However, it should follow 'Lone Survivor''s pattern closely, which is a similar war film where the heroes have to fight against a ridiculous amount of terrorists without outside help. With those kinds of legs, '13 Hours' should reach $55 million by the end of its run.
     'Daddy's Home' took fifth place with $9.5 million ($11.9m/-20.7% four-day), down 36.4% from last weekend. The $50-million comedy has so far brought in a strong $131.9 million since opening on Christmas, and should finish with around $145 million.
     In a weak sixth place, 'Norm of the North' tanked with just $6.8 million. That's way below the $19.4 million opening of 2014's 'The Nut Job', and only slightly ahead of last August's 'Shaun the Sheep Movie' ($4m). The $18-million animated comedy suffered from atrocious reception given off by critics (0% on RT) and audiences (25% Flixter and 'B-' CinemaScore) alike.
     'Norm' began with $1.6 million on Friday, increased 90% on Saturday to make $3 million, and dropped 24.9% on Sunday to gross $2.3 million (it increased 12.2% on MLK Day to earn $2.5 million). The ratio is 4.25-to-1, which is a bit better than 'The Nut Job'. Still, don't expect it to hold up as well due to much weaker reviews (the aforementioned 0% rating, only achieved by the worst of the worst) and word-of-mouth (the first wide release since 'Fantastic Four' in August to get in the 20's on Flixter). A total of around $20 million is likely for this flop.
     Overall box office was up a slim 2.8% from last weekend, grossing $151.3 million, and down 33.7% from last year when 'American Sniper' expanded and demolished the January opening record.
     Next weekend looks to be a bit quieter, as the holdovers are likely to take the top spot while 'Dirty Grandpa' (the Robert De Niro/Zac Efron led R-rated comedy), 'The Boy' (STX's latest PG-13 thriller), and 'The Fifth Wave' (expected to be the latest YA adaptation to underperform) will likely debut softly.

    

Friday Report: 'Ride Along' and '13 Hours' Don't Break Out, 'Norm' Flops While 'Revenant' Benefits from Nominations

     Opening two years after the first one broke the January opening record, 'Ride Along 2' played as a typical comedy sequel, dropping off a bit from its predecessor. Nevertheless, it will make a profit considering it cost only $40 million. Meanwhile, Michael Bay's war film '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' debuted modestly while the animated family offering 'Norm of the North' downright bombed.

     In first place, the $40-million comedy sequel 'Ride Along 2' opened to a solid $12 million, which is off 16.7% from the $14.4 million debut of the first 'Ride Along'. When that opened, the film cruised to a new January opening weekend record with $41.5 million and also broke the four-day MLK opening weekend record as well ($48.6m). While it never was expected to match the first one, it at least didn't drop off significantly like recent films ('Ted 2' was off 35.4% on opening day while 'Horrible Bosses 2' was down 37.4%). 'Ride Along' brought in $1.3 million in Thursday night shows, which is slightly higher than the first's but lead to a more front-loaded opening. It has garnered awful reviews so far (15% on RT), although the first got 18% and look how that turned out. If it plays like 'Ted 2' and 'Horrible Bosses 2', it will look at a three-day weekend of around $30 million. However, since 'Ride Along' is PG-13 instead of R, it should be more accessible to more audiences, giving it a slightly higher figure. As for the four-day weekend, the Kevin Hart/Ice Cube led comedy from Universal should have no problem getting over $38 million.

     'The Revenant' fell to second place, although it does have the potential to take the weekend crown if it holds up well. The $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio Western thriller from Fox grossed $9.3 million, down a slim 35.2% from its nationwide expansion. 'Revenant' has been holding up very well throughout the week, and was easily made all the more appealing once it scored 12 Oscar nominations on Thursday. So far, the well-reviewed surprise hit has taken in a solid $67.5 million in 22 days of release (counting its limited run), and should earn about $30 million for the three-day weekend and $36 million for the four-day weekend.
     'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' was bumped down another spot, making $6.3 million and decreasing 41.3% from last week. The $200-million J. J. Abrams directed franchise revival should hold up better than in previous weeks given the fact that it scored 5 Oscar nominations, including one Best Visual Effects (obviously). With a record-breaking $832.2 million in just nearly a month of release, 'Star Wars' is currently looking at $25 million over the three-day weekend while it should earn $33 million in the four-day weekend.
     In fourth place, the $50-million Michael Bay directed war flick '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' debuted below expectations and grossed an estimated $5.9 million. While that's not bad, it's not that great either. Many were expecting a weekend in the range of $18-$22 million for the three-day weekend and $22-$25 million for the four-day. '13 Hours' was down 21.3% from Bay's last non-'Transformers' directorial outing 'Pain and Gain', which had a much stronger cast and marketing campaign. 'Pain' also cost a little more than half of '13 Hours', making it easier to be profitable. It's also noticeably below the likes of 'Lone Survivor' ($14.4m) and 'Zero Dark Thirty ($9m). It also represents a small fraction of 'American Sniper' ($30.3m). It pulled in $900k from Thursday night showings. Reviews aren't as strong as most war films nowadays (59% on RT), but word-of-mouth (as always, regardless of reviews) is very solid with 84% on Flixter and an 'A' on CinemaScore (both on par with previous war films). '13 Hours' should make around $16 million in its first three days and $20 million in its first four.

     In an awful seventh place, the $18-million animated comedy 'Norm of the North' failed to counter-program against the more-appealing family-friendly blockbusters ('Daddy's Home', 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'). Bombing with just $1.6 million yesterday, 'Norm' embarrassingly attempted to recreate the breakout success of 2014's 'The Nut Job' ($19.4m opening/$64.3m total). Horrible reviews won't help either (0% on RT), and word-of-mouth isn't exactly on fire (33% Flixter and 'B-' CinemaScore). Anywhere in the $6-million range for the three-day weekend seems doable, and $8 million in four days is likely.

Weekend Forecast (Three-Day)

1. 'Ride Along 2' - $32.4 million

2. 'The Revenant' - $31.2 million (-21.6%)

3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' - $25.9 million (-38.9%)

4. '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' - $16.8 million

5. 'Daddy's Home' - $9.1 million (-39.3%)

-   'Norm of the North' - $6.4 million

Weekend Forecast (Four-Day)

1. 'Ride Along 2' - $39 million

2. 'The Revenant' - $36.3 million (-6.7%)

3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' - $32.8 million (-22.6%)

4. '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' - $19.8 million

5. 'Daddy's Home' - $12.6 million (-16%)

-   'Norm of the North' - $8.3 million







Weekend Actuals: 'Star Wars' Falls but Still Leads, 'Revenant' Breaks Out, 'Forest' Thrills

     'Star Wars' took the lead once again, but it wasn't the only film to do solid business this weekend. 'The Revenant' expanded from its limited run in four locations and met great success while the PG-13 horror 'The Forest' held on better through the weekend than expected.
     Obviously 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' took first with an estimated $42.4 million, down a rather sharp 53.1% from its $90.2 million third weekend. That's steeper than December releases 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' (-49.6%) and 'I Am Legend' (-42.7%) and even worse than summer blockbusters 'Jurassic World' (-46.4%) and 'Marvel's The Avengers' (-34.1%). Still, 'Star Wars' has brought in a very impressive, record-breaking $812.7 million total, making it the first time that a film crossed the $800 million milestone domestically (not adjusting for inflation, of course). On the adjusted-for-inflation chart, it ranks a very strong 15th (past the adjusted gross of  'Return of the Jedi'). If the $200-million sci-fi mega-blockbuster can find a way to stabilize nicely in the coming weeks, then $900 million should be in reach. However, just to be safe, I'm going to go with a $860 million cume.
     In a stronger-than-expected second place, the $135-million Western thriller 'The Revenant' grossed a spectacular $39.8 million in its nationwide expansion (for a $11.8k average from 3,375 locations). While that is below DiCaprio's other successes like 'Shutter Island' ($41.1m) and 'The Great Gatsby' ($50.1m), both of which straight into wide release, it is at least above 'Django Unchained' ($30.1m) and 'Lone Survivor' ($37.8m). One major drawing factor is Leonardo DiCaprio's star power, as (excluding 'J. Edgar') all his films after 'Shutter Island' earned well over $100 million domestically. Another is the presence of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who directed the 2014 sleeper hit 'Birdman' ($42.3m). While he isn't a household name yet, Inarritu is certainly a recognizable person due to the previously mentioned film's success. Strong reviews shouldn't be looked over either, as it currently sits at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. Flixter audiences seem to enjoy it, giving it a solid 87% score. However, CinemaScore users are a bit less generous, awarding it a so-so 'B+' compared to the 'A+' scores of 'Lone Survivor' and 'American Sniper'.
     'Revenant' started out on Friday with $14.4 million, increased 6.4% on Saturday to earn $15.3 million, and fell 33.2% on Sunday to gross $10.2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio of 2.76-to-1 is a lot better than the 2.63-to-1 ratio of 'Lone Survivor', which suggests it will probably have better holding power throughout its run. With the likelihood of 'Revenant' holding up much better than 'Shutter Island' but a bit more front-loaded than 'Django', a total of around $160 million is a lock.
     Down one spot from last weekend, 'Daddy's Home' faced its worst drop yet with a 48.6% decrease and a $15 million weekend take. The $50-million comedy has been holding up fairly well against its negative reviews (31% RT score) and decent word-of-mouth (60% Flixter rating) with a much-better-than-expected $116.3 million in 3 weeks of play. Look for a finish of $155 million.
     In fourth was the $10-million PG-13 Natalie Dormer led 'The Forest', which brought in a solid $12.7 million from 2,451 locations. It held on better through the weekend than I predicted, which in turn brought in a debut closer to last year's 'The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death' ($15m). Although it continued the declining opening grosses of past early December horrors, this is a strong opening nevertheless considering it wasn't a sequel ('Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones' and 'Woman in Black') or remake ('Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D').

     Starting out with $5 million on Friday, 'Forest' increased 4.5% on Saturday for $5.2 million and dipped 50.5% on Sunday to gross $2.6 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio (2.54-to-1) is actually a lot stronger than previous horror films. This is especially surprising, given that it has so far garnered awful reviews (11% on RT) and horrible word-of-mouth (33% on Flixter, although that is typical for a horror flick). This should turn into a minor profit in the long run, possibly looking at anywhere from $24 million to $33 million.
     'Sisters' had one of the more smaller drops of the holdovers, falling 43.7% to $7.2 million. The $30-million R-rated comedy has so far amassed a very solid $74.9 million, and $85 million is still in reach.
     'The Hateful Eight' and 'The Big Short' claimed sixth and seventh place for the weekend. 'Hateful Eight' grossed a bit more, but fell a lot harder. Plummeting 59.2% and making $6.4 million, the Quentin Tarantino directed $44-million Western continues to run well below pre-release expectations with a modest $41.5 million in 17 days. A $55 million finish seems likely, but as for 'Big Short', it looks to fare a lot better. The $28-million comedy-drama based on the 2007-2008 financial crisis fell 31.9% (it probably would've done a lot better if it weren't for 'Revenant') and made $6.2 million. Showing little sign of slowing down, 'Big Short' has now taken in $42.7 million since opening on December 11. It should close in the range of $65m-$70m.

     'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' and 'Joy' had troublesome drops from last weekend. 'Alvin' fell 52.8% ($5.7m) and 'Joy' dropped 56.2% ($4.5m). 'Alvin' has so far took in $75.8 million and 'Joy''s cume stands at $46.5 million. 'Alvin' should finish with around $90 million total while 'Joy' will have to settle for a $65 million cume, barely crawling past its $60-million production budget.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend totaled an impressive $147.2 million, down 28.7% from the weekend of the New Year but up 33.6% from last year when 'Taken 3' opened.
     Next weekend will be a lot more busy, with not one, not two, but three new wide releases opening against the holdovers as well as each other. They include the comedy sequel 'Ride Along 2', the Michael Bay directed war film '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi', and the animated family offering 'Norm of the North'.

Friday Report: 'Star Wars' Yields First to 'Revenant', 'Forest' Haunts Few Audiences

     As with 'Avatar' and 'Titanic', 'Star Wars' dropped to second place on Friday due to another high-profile release, but will likely overtake the weekend box office yet again, albeit less impressively.
     After a spectacular run in limited release (a total of $1.6m in two weeks from just four theaters), 'The Revenant' avoided the fates of past expansions such as 'The Hateful Eight' and 'Steve Jobs' with an outstanding $14.4 million. That is on par with the expansion of 2013's 'Lone Survivor' ($14.4m), which it earned on the same weekend in 2014. 'Revenant' benefited from strong reviews (80% on RT), solid word-of-mouth throughout its limited release (87%), and Leonardo DiCaprio's drawing power. However, on CinemaScore, word-of-mouth isn't nearly as good as 'Lone Survivor''s ('Revenant''s 'B+' compared to 'Survivor''s 'A+'). Plus, Thursday night grosses ($2.3m) accounted for 16% of Friday's gross whereas the Thursday take for 'Survivor' was 10.4%. This could probably lead to a more front-loaded weekend for 'Revenant', although it should display healthy legs in the long run. A weekend of around $37 million is very likely for the $135-million Western.

     Taking second place for the first time in its release, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' slowed down significantly with $10.8 million, off a whopping 68.7% from New Year's. However, that drop is closer to 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' (-65.3%) than 'Avatar' (-47.5%). From here on out, 'Star Wars' should play like a regular blockbuster instead of a leggy December phenomenon. Still, it became the highest-grossing domestic release of all time not accounting for inflation in the middle of the week, which is no easy feat. The record breaking $781.1 million should turn into over $815 million by the end of the weekend, making 'Star Wars' the first film ever (again, not accounting for inflation) to pass $800 million domestic. If it manages to stabilize over the following weeks, then $900 million is a lock. $40 million is a likely outcome for the weekend, which is less than what 'Avatar' made in its fifth weekend.

     Gramercy's $10-million production 'The Forest' scared up a modest $5 million yesterday. While that isn't a bad result, it's not a great one either. It has now become a tradition to release low-budget horror films on the first (or second) weekend of January, but ever since 'The Devil Inside' defied expectations with $33.7 million, the horror films after that declined in opening grosses. 'Forest' will likely continue that trend, falling a few million dollars short of the $15 million opening of last year's 'The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death'. If it plays like that film, 'Forest' will end up with around $10 million. I expect it to fair better than that with an $11.5 million weekend.
     Comedy holdovers featuring famous duos occupied fourth and fifth place, respectively. In fourth was 'Daddy's Home' with $4.2 million, down 63.3% from last Friday. It has so far totaled $105.5 million and a weekend of around $14 million is a likely outcome. As for 'Sisters', the $30-million R-rated comedy took in $2.3 million for a 52.7% week-to-week drop and a $70 million cume. $7 million should be in reach.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' - $41 million (-54.5%)

2. 'The Revenant' - $37.2 million (+9,200%)

3. 'Daddy's Home' - $14.6 million (-50%)

4. 'The Forest' - $11.5 million

5. 'Sisters' - $7.4 million (-42.2%)