Monthly Forecast: February 2016

     Following a January that benefited mostly from 2015 releases ('Revenant' was released on Christmas Day), the month of February should see more activity from new releases than holdovers but it probably won't reach the current record total ($818.2m). I expect "a different kind of superhero story" to take the monthly crown this year and some strong runner-ups.

The Choice

Nicholas Sparks movies generally do pretty well, but recently, they've been doing modestly at best. The last real hit in this particular genre is 'Safe Haven' from 2013. Since then, 2014's 'The Best of Me' ($26.8m) and 2015's 'The Longest Ride' ($37.4m) wound up as the lowest-grossing Sparks films since 2002's 'A Walk to Remember'. With a weaker cast than the previous two movies and obvious audience fatigue, 'The Choice' should become the lowest-grossing Sparks movie yet.
Predicted Opening: $7 million
Predicted Total: $19 million

Hail, Caesar!

 The latest film from the Coen brothers, 'Hail, Caesar!' features a stellar cast (Josh Brolin, George Clooney, Ralph Fiennes, Tilda Swinton, Scarlett Johansson) and the major audience appeal for the directors. The most recent Coens film to star Clooney is the 2008 flick 'Burn After Reading', which debuted to $19.1 million in September and closed with $60.4 million. While it's hard to imagine 'Caesar' will reach those heights, it should do in one weekend what 'Inside Llewyn Davis' did in its entire run.
Predicted Opening: $15.5 million
Predicted Total: $50 million

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

This one's a bit tougher to predict. Zombie movies have a spotty track record ('World War Z' and 'Warm Bodies' did well but 'Resident Evil: Retribution' and 'Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse' flopped domestically). The cast isn't well-known (except for Matt Smith, but he's in a supporting role), and the director's '17 Again' was a modest success that didn't receive overly positive feedback. However, the aforementioned 'Warm Bodies' still performed solidly during Super Bowl weekend with $20.4 million. If 'Pride' can retain at least three-fourths of that number in its opening, it will be in great shape.
Predicted Opening: $13.5 million
Predicted Total: $44 million

Deadpool

Coming off the massive success of 'X-Men: Days of Future Past' is the franchise spin-off 'Deadpool', the highly-anticipated cinematic take on the raunchy, foul-mouthed, chimichanga-loving superhero that gets his proper treatment after the disappointing outing in 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine'. The R-rated action comedy from Fox looks like it has more potential than that and fellow spin-off 'The Wolverine', which is the lowest-grossing film in the franchise domestically. The character is extremely popular among comic book fans, and on social media it's been on fire (the first Red Band trailer has over 36 million views on YouTube). The marketing campaign is absolutely wonderful, from the '12 Days of Deadpool' online event to Ryan Reynolds serving chimichangas at the Super Bowl. Expect this to be one of the franchise's best-performing films in all of its history.
Predicted Opening: $70.5 million ($82.5 million 4-day)
Predicted Total: $184 million

How to Be Single

'Fifty Shades of Grey' was a massive success last year, making over $570 million worldwide against a $40-million budget. Star Dakota Johnson returns to the big screen on February 12 alongside Rebel Wilson in the R-rated romantic comedy 'How to Be Single'. While it should have a much smaller budget, it should also bring in much smaller grosses. The last major rom-com was July's 'Trainwreck', which made $110.2 million domestically. It's very unlikely it will reach that number, and it will probably barely make more than that film's $30-million weekend.

Predicted Opening: $11.5 million ($14 million 4-day)
Predicted Total: $30.5 million

Zoolander No. 2

Though the first film underperformed in 2001 ($45.2m domestic) and got modest reviews (64% on RT), audiences seemed to dig it (80% on Flixter). Since then, it's developed a large cult following. With the added star power of Kristen Wiig and Penelope Cruz as well as the returning cast of Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson, and Will Ferrell (who probably has the most drawing power), the cast is one of the strongest of the year. However, a massive cult following and a strong cast don't necessarily mean that the film's going to be a blockbuster. Many films last year (i.e. 'Mortdecai', 'Jupiter Ascending') had fairly respectable casts but bombed hard at the box office. While I wouldn't call this a bomb, audience overlap with the other new wide releases as well as some minor controversy should keep this from being a huge breakout either.
Predicted Opening: $24 million ($27.5 million 4-day)
Predicted Total: $62 million

Race

After the underwhelming performance from Will Smith's 'Concussion' ($33.9m and counting), 'Race' will try to get into the big leagues of sport dramas after the successes of '42' ($95m) and 'McFarland, USA' ($44.5m). The Olympics drama doesn't have a very strong cast, but its protagonist's legacy and similar genre performances fill it with potential. 'Race' will probably make a lot less than '42', but it is very likely it will end up in the same range as 2014 biopic 'Get On Up' ($30.7m) and the aforementioned 'McFarland'.
Predicted Opening: $12 million
Predicted Total: $41 million

Risen

The first Christian-based film going wide this year will be the more action-centered 'Risen'. The closest comparison here is 'Son of God', which debuted to over $25 million two years ago. It's very unlikely 'Risen' will get that far, and movies in this genre rarely get good reviews. Audiences, however, are more kind to these types of films, and Sony has experienced great success with past faith-based films. Expect this one to open to what 'War Room' did last year, albeit with much weaker legs.
Predicted Opening: $10 million
Predicted Total: $24 million

The Witch

A24's latest release, 'The Witch', already has great potential. The last A24 entry, last April's 'Ex Machina', opened with $5.3 million in its nationwide expansion and went on to gross $25.4 million. Reviews are already in, and so far they are looking great (88% on RT). Anticipation isn't out of this world (a decent +96% want-to-see score on RT), but is solid considering its genre. 'Witch' will likely claim the record for A24's biggest domestic opening, but should have slightly weaker holding power compared to 'Machina'.
Predicted Opening: $8.5 million
Predicted Total: $26 million

Eddie the Eagle

The second Olympics-themed February release this year is 'Eddie the Eagle' from Fox. It stars an impressive cast of Christopher Walken, Hugh Jackman, and Taron Egerton (who starred in last year's breakout hit 'Kingsman: The Secret Service'). However, that's pretty much the only thing working in its favor. Not only does it have to compete with 'Race' for a similar target audience, 'Eddie' will need to stand out from a pretty crowded market, which it will probably fail in doing so.
Predicted Opening: $5 million
Predicted Total: $14 million

Gods of Egypt

Unfortunately, this has even less box office potential. Big-budget original sci-fi/fantasy films (whether or not the director/cast is well known) almost never do well. With a production budget said to be around $140 million (the same as 2014's notorious flop 'Exodus: Gods and Kings'), this has no chance at making that figure back. From the usual genre fare and "white-washing" controversy (where most of the Egyptian characters are played by Caucasian actors) to the low anticipation (+93% on RT), 'Gods' should play similar to 'Exodus'. Hopefully, overseas figures will be seen as strong numbers (just like 'Exodus').
Predicted Opening: $19 million
Predicted Total: $45.5 million


Triple 9

'Triple 9' is probably the trickiest film to predict in the month of February. The cast should strongly appeal to older audiences, but they also aren't guaranteed box office draws (Chiwetel Ejiofor stumbled with 'Secret in their Eyes', Woody Harrelson and Anthony Mackie haven't found much success outside the 'Hunger Games' and Marvel films). The director has found modest success with 2012's 'Lawless', but has been absent from film-making since then until now. The "dirty cop" genre hasn't found much success in recent years, although crime movies in general have been doing pretty good. This looks more like a mid-range film than a flop or a true hit, so it's likely it will make twice as much as 'Secret in their Eyes' did, both in opening weekend and its domestic total.
Predicted Opening: $13.5 million
Predicted Total: $40 million