Monday, February 29, 2016

Monthly Forecast: March 2016

     As a solid February is coming to a close (led by none other than 'Deadpool'), a new month begins that will attempt at a shot for the biggest March ever. Strong contenders include 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', 'Zootopia', '10 Cloverfield Lane', 'Miracles from Heaven', 'The Divergent Series: Allegiant', and 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2'.

London Has Fallen

The sequel to the 2013 surprise hit 'Olympus Has Fallen' ($98.9m) returns to theaters, attacking 3,250 theaters and carrying a bigger price tag ($105m compared to the first's $70m budget). Action sequels are hit-and-miss nowadays, with recent successes 'Furious 7' ($353m) and 'Mad Max: Fury Road' ($153.6m) but misfires like 'A Good Day to Die Hard' ($67.3m) and 'Terminator Genisys' ($89.8m). This one looks like it will perform closer to the latter group, as there just doesn't feel like a lot of hype is surrounding the film. Also, while Aaron Eckhart and Morgan Freeman star alongside Gerard Butler (who's coming off of the embarrassing performance of 'Gods of Egypt'), they aren't guaranteed draws (Eckhart couldn't save 'My All American' ($2.2m) and Freeman couldn't get audiences to come to 'Transcendence' ($23m)). Overall, this should play very similar to 'A Good Day to Die Hard' if not a little better.
Predicted Opening: $26 million
Predicted Total: $71.5 million

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Tina Fey is coming off of the fresh success of December's 'Sisters' ($87m and counting), which debuted to $13.9 million against 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' and 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip', providing solid counter-programming for audiences who wanted a solid laugh at the theaters. It looks to be a similar situation this weekend, as Fey's latest film 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot', which also stars Margot Robbie, Martin Freeman, and Alfred Molina, will be going up against a big-budget action sequel and a family-friendly offering. Reviews are in line with 'Sisters' (it currently holds a 63% Tomatometer score on RT), and anticipation is as well (+95% want-to-see score on RT). The marketing has been pretty decent, and the R rating didn't stop 'Sisters' from being a huge hit. However, similarly-themed film 'Our Brand is Crisis' was a huge flop in October (opened with $3.2m and ended with $7m against a $28m budget), so this could potentially underperform. However, stronger reviews and a stronger cast should make this a modest success overall.
Predicted Opening: $11.5 million
Predicted Total: $33 million

Zootopia


This is being predicted as the big winner this weekend. Disney is releasing the new animated film 'Zootopia' across 3,700 locations nationwide. Unlike your typical animated film, 'Zootopia' has been generating strong online activity levels for a while now, a feat that only big-name franchises like 'Toy Story' and 'Despicable Me' have managed to do in recent years. The trailers have been met with very positive results, and it seems like that buzz is being transferred over to critics (its Tomatometer score is at a stellar 100% on RT). However, it could still underwhelm, as recent animated movies ('Kung Fu Panda 3', 'The Good Dinosaur', 'The Peanuts Movie') have failed to meet or exceed expectations both on opening weekend and in the long run. Still, this seems more of a safe bet than the previously mentioned titles, so don't be surprised if it opens similar to 'Big Hero 6' or maybe even 'Despicable Me 2'.
Predicted Opening: $72 million
Predicted Total: $245 million

10 Cloverfield Lane


For fans of the original 2008 hit, this is the moment you have been waiting for. Although it seemed a sequel will never happen, the "blood relative" (which worked under the titles 'The Cellar' and 'Valencia') generated much buzz after the first trailer was dropped in January. And adding J. J. Abrams to the mix will only increase that buzz. Whether or not it can match the monstrous $80-million total of 'Cloverfield' remains to be seen, but anticipation for the film is rather high (+98% on RT) and has a sort of event feel to it. I don't expect it to match its predecessor's opening, but it could have stronger holding power in the long run.  
Predicted Opening: $36.5 million
Predicted Total: $82 million

The Brothers Grimsby


For those of you who aren't familiar with his work, Sacha Baron Cohen is a raunchy comedian that has starred in past hits like 'Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan' ($128.5m), 'Bruno' ($60.1m), and 'The Dictator' ($59.7m). Note the declining grosses in each comedy title. It's already opened in six markets ($3.7m overall gross) with solid results, but does that mean strong domestic returns? The cast also includes Mark Strong ('Kingsman: The Secret Service'), Penelope Cruz ('Zoolander 2'), and Rebel Wilson ('How to Be Single'), so there's some appeal there. Reviews are mixed though (50% on RT), and anticipation is surprisingly low (+88% on RT), which shows minimal audience interest. Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised if it fails to break $10 million in its opening weekend, as there are many factors that point to that possibility.
Predicted Opening: $6.5 million
Predicted Total: $14 million

The Perfect Match

I'm not going to spend too much time on this one. It just looks like your typical romance comedy. It will likely provide decent counter-programming, with a modestly profitable director and cast backing it up. It won't match 'How to Be Single''s $17.9 million debut, but $10 should be doable.
Predicted Opening: $12 million
Predicted Total: $31.5 million

The Young Messiah

After 'Risen' kicked off the onslaught of faith-based movies this spring, 'The Young Messiah' will try to capitalize on the successes of similarly-themed movies. Its pre-established fanbase from the novel should turn up, and ones who are interested in the life of Jesus as a child instead of watching him already in adulthood should pay to see this as well. There will be a lot of audience overlap in the market though, since 'Risen' will act as a holdover and 'Miracles from Heaven' and 'God's Not Dead 2' will compete for the same target demographic. 'Messiah' will most likely open modestly and experience strong holding power later in its run.
Predicted Opening: $8 million
Predicted Total: $28 million

The Divergent Series: Allegiant


The YA-movie craze is obviously starting to wear off on audiences. In January, 'The Fifth Wave' opened modestly with just $10.3 million and 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' underwhelmed with $30.3 million, which was slightly down from its predecessor. The 'Hunger Games' franchise has also experienced a bit of a cool down recently as well, with its lowest-grossing entry 'Mockingjay - Part 2' ($281.7m and counting) just about wrapping up its run in theaters. The same should happen for 'The Divergent Series', which also experienced a franchise low with last March's 'Insurgent', which opened to $52.3 million and topped out at $130.2 million, which was significantly down from its predecessor's $150.9 million total in 2014. There is a lot of reason to why the series will experience another decline in ticket sales and grosses, such as lower online activity, the lukewarm reception from the last installment (29% RT score from critics and 60% Flixter score from audiences), and the aforementioned YA fatigue. While it should still be a success ('Insurgent' found a larger overseas audience than 'Divergent'), it would also be a disappointment as well.
Predicted Opening: $37.5 million
Predicted Total: $99 million

Miracles from Heaven

Continuing the slew of faith-based movies is the Jennifer Garner led 'Miracles from Heaven', based on a true story (many of them are). This one looks very similar to 2014's sleeper hit 'Heaven is for Real', which debuted to $22.5 million and finished with $91.4 million. That film had a weaker cast and an arguably less interesting premise, so it is likely 'Heaven' will match that figure if not pass it. The PG-rated drama opens on Wednesday before 'Allegiant', so little kids who are too young for the YA-adapted actioner will probably fill theaters playing this one. I expect a five-day total of around $25 million and a three-day opening of around $20 million.
Predicted Opening: $21.5 million ($28 million 5-day)
Predicted Total: $85.5 million

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

This will probably be the big winner of the month, and possibly one of the biggest of the year. After 'Deadpool' set a new bench mark for 2016 superhero movies a few weeks ago with $132.7 million, 'Dawn of Justice' will attempt to surpass that figure as well as its predecessor 'Man of Steel''s opening ($116.6m). First of all, anticipation is very, very high (+99% from 101k users on RT are excited for this film), although it can't quite match 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' (+100% from 250k users right before release). That film opened to $191.3 million in the beginning of May, which was when 'Justice' was originally scheduled for release until 'Captain America: Civil War' continued the annual "begin-the-summer-with-a-Marvel-movie" tradition (which would have made an epic showdown, but had enough reason for one of them to move). It's unlikely it will get that high, and probably won't even reach 'Iron Man 3' ($174.1). 'Justice' will likely surpass the likes of 'Spider-Man 3' ($151.1m), 'The Dark Knight' ($158.4m), and 'The Dark Knight Rises' ($160.9m). Either way, it will have one of the biggest openings ever for any kind of movie, which is a remarkable feat believe it or not. With a budget of around $200 million (less than 'Man of Steel''s $225m budget or 'Avengers'' $220m budget), this should become one of the most profitable movies of all time. I believe it will have the strength to push past $165 million on opening weekend, and that it should get pretty close to 'Avengers: Age of Ultron''s $459 million total, although there definitely is the possibility it could surpass that.
Predicted Opening: $167.5 million
Predicted Total: $427 million

The Disappointments Room

Faith-based films aren't the only movie genre invading the market in 2016. Supernatural horror is also having a busy year, with successful releases already from January ('The Forest' and 'The Boy'). While it's unlikely 'Disappointments Room' will make it past $10 million like those films, it should still perform solidly in both its opening weekend and the long run. Director D.J. Caruso should make a modest comeback with this one, having directed modest performers 'I Am Number Four' ($55.1m) and 'Eagle Eye' ($101.4m). Star Kate Beckinsale should prove a reliable draw here as well.
Predicted Opening: $9 million
Predicted Total: $21 million

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

After a whopping 14 years, audiences get to experience more romantic craziness as the sequel to the 2002 smash hit 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding' ($241.4m) finally arrives in theaters. This time, it's being directed by Kirk Jones, who has had modest success with 'What to Expect When You're Expecting' ($41.2m) and 'Nanny McPhee' ($47.1m). It's very likely 'Wedding' passes those grosses, but the question is by how much. It looks like it captures the spirit of the original, which is a key selling point for nostalgic movies like this. The original is fairly fondly remembered (a 73% Flixter score as well as a 76% RT score), and anticipation is pretty respectable (+94% on RT). However, 14 years is a very long time to wait, no matter how fondly remembered the predecessor was ('Terminator Genisys' anyone?). Still, it should provide very solid counter-programming, though it's hard to imagine it can retain at least half of the original's gross.
Predicted Opening: $26.5 million
Predicted Total: $89 million

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Weekend Actuals: 'Deadpool' Crushes Weak Newcomers on Oscar Weekend

     Starting today, the 88th Academy Awards is one of the most anticipated award shows of the year. Although it is viewed nationwide by millions, not everyone is interested in seeing who brings home the gold. Instead, they go see the actual movies on the big screen. While they seemed interested in the holdovers, very few went to see the new releases, all of which will struggle to make back their budget domestically.
     Easily repeating in first place for the third weekend in a row before relinquishing it next week, the $58-million R-rated Ryan Reynolds led superhero action comedy 'Deadpool' continued demolishing the box office, bringing in $31.1 million for an outstanding and monstrous $285.3 million in just three weeks of play. That is down just 44.9% from last weekend, stabilizing nicely after its nosedive in its second weekend. 'Deadpool' has been performing way ahead of expectations and has become the highest-grossing X-Men movie ever as well as becoming the third-biggest R-rated movie of all time, ahead of 'The Matrix Reloaded' ($281.6m) and 'The Hangover' ($277.3m). Among comic book and superhero movies, it ranks 13th on both charts ahead of 'The Amazing Spider-Man' ($262m). Next it will be passing 'Man of Steel' ($291m), whose follow-up 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' will try snatch one of the biggest openings of all time, and is looking at a finish between 'Guardians of the Galaxy' ($333.2m) and 'Spider-Man 2' ($373.6m). Unfortunately, it is no longer a guarantee it will pass $400 million domestic, but with such a small budget that doesn't really matter. Worldwide it made another $40.1 million, bringing its foreign gross to $324.1 million and $609.3 million. The only other X-Men movie to gross more than $600 million worldwide is 'X-Men: Days of Future Past', which benefited greatly from rapid market growth and ended its run with $747.9 million worldwide, a number 'Deadpool' is likely to pass.
     In a distant and horrible second place, the $140-million Alex Proyas directed original action fantasy 'Gods of Egypt' flopped very hardly with only $14.1 million ($4.5k PTA). While that is generally in line with pre-release in expectations ($10m-$15m), it is still a terrible start for the big-budget film. It opened way below 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' ($24.1m) and 'Clash of the Titans' ($61.2m) and even failed to match 'Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters' ($14.4m). Among the director's previous outings, it failed to reach the openings of 'I, Robot' ($52.2m) and 'Knowing' ($24.6m). Don't worry about star Gerard Butler though, who will get another chance at box office glory next weekend with the action sequel 'London Has Fallen'. Ultimately, the whitewashing of the cast caused a bit of a stir, and big-budget originals generally don't do well nowadays.
     Opening with a poor $4.8 million ($800k from Thursday) on Friday, 'Gods' increased 17.4% on Saturday for $5.6 million and fell 33.4% on Sunday to gross $3.7 million. That is a weekend-to-Friday ratio 2.94-to-1, which is one of the only positive notes in this weekend's performance. However, that will matter little in the long run as disastrous reviews (12% on RT) and middling word-of-mouth (49% Flixter score) will surely keep it back from holding up as well as the ratio suggests. It would be surprising if it made much more than $35 million total.
     'Kung Fu Panda 3' managed to enjoy one last weekend in peace before next week's 'Zootopia' disrupts it, pulling in $8.9 million and dropping just 28.9% from last weekend. The $140-million animated comedy sequel has so far grossed $128.4 million since opening on January 29, and should wind up with around $145 million total.
     'Risen' held up pretty well this weekend, falling just 42.3% to make $6.8 million. The $20-million faith-based drama hasn't been relying on critical reviews (57% on RT) but instead on solid word-of-mouth ('A-' CinemaScore). With $22.5 million so far, 'Risen' will hope to hold up well against an onslaught of faith-based films in March and April. $40 million is likely.
     'Triple 9' was even slower than 'Gods', eking out just $6.1 million from 2,205 locations for a lackluster $2.8k average. The $20-million ensemble led crime thriller from Open Roads was widely expected to be the break-out performer of the weekend with around $9m-$12.5m, but it clearly failed to meet those standards. With a lot more appealing options in the market already, it would make sense for audiences to skip this. Reviews were far from promising (55% on RT), but word-of-mouth was even worse ('C+' CinemaScore).
     On Friday, the film grossed $2.1 million, increased 12% on Saturday to earn $2.4 million, and fell 35% on Sunday to make $1.6 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is 2.9-to-1, which is the weakest of the new releases. With middling word-of-mouth, it's unlikely it will reach $20 million by the end of its run.
     'Eddie the Eagle' fared the worst for the new releases, though it won't cost the studio as much money. The $23-million sports dramedy rounded up $6.1 million for a $2,980 per-theater average. Starring Taron Egerton and Hugh Jackman, expectations for this film were always modest ($7m-$8m), but no one expected an opening this low. If it opened closer to the 2016 Olympics in August instead of early in the year (this might have benefited last weekend's 'Race' as well), 'Eddie' may have been something noteworthy, but the timing just wasn't right.
     On Friday, 'Eddie' grossed $1.9 million ($175k from Thursday night shows), increased an encouraging 43.2% on Saturday to gross $2.8 million, and declined a troubling 50.6% on Sunday to claim $1.4 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a strong 3.21-to-1, which means that 'Eddie' has a chance at holding up well in the coming weeks. Solid reviews (73% on RT) and word-of-mouth (88% on Flixter) should certainly help as well. A $20 million finish is very likely for the feel-good, family-friendly pic.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend made $97.5 million, which was down 22.1% from last weekend but up 4.3% from last year when 'Focus' took the top spot.
     Next week sees the highly-anticipated release of Disney's 'Zootopia', the questionable release of 'London Has Fallen', and the release of Tina Fey's 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot'.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Weekend Actuals: 'Deadpool' Explodes to the Top Spot, 'How to Be Single' Benefits from Date Night Audiences, 'Zoolander' Stumbles

     In what is now one of the most historic box office weekends ever, R-rated superhero comedy 'Deadpool' shot up a bunch of records with a very strong debut, 'How to Be Single' provided solid counter-programming, and 'Zoolander 2' pretty much fell flat on its face.
     Easily taking the weekend crown, the $58-million R-rated superhero comedy 'Deadpool' from Fox grossed an estimated $132.4 million (and $152.2m over the four-day weekend). It demolished expectations as well as a few records, including the biggest February Thursday showing ($12.7m), biggest February opening day ($47.4m), biggest single day in February ($47.4m), biggest February opening, biggest 4-day President's Day weekend, biggest R-rated opening, biggest opening for an R-rated comic adaptation, biggest winter opening, and biggest Fox opening. It opened $47.2 million ahead of last year's $40-million romance hit 'Fifty Shades of Grey', which debuted to $85.2 million ($93m four-day) on the same weekend. It is also ahead of 'The Matrix Reloaded' ($91.8m), 'American Sniper' ($89.3m), and '300' ($70.9m). Among comic-book-adapted openers on the same weekend, 'Deadpool' easily took down 'Ghost Rider' ($45.4m) and its sequel ($22.1m), 'Daredevil' ($40.3m), 'Constantine' ($29.8m), and 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($36.2m), another R-rated Fox surprise hit. In fact, it beat all those opening weekends on its opening day, which is quite a feat. Expectations ranged from $75m-$95m for the four-day weekend, which makes this performance all the more impressive. Ultimately, the marketing is the main reason this film is such a huge success. From the Red Band trailers and the irreverent posters to the emoji billboards and "graphic info-graphic" (as described by comicbook.com), Fox has made it clear that they are not only targeting the fans of the cult character, they are also trying to get it to click with casual moviegoers. And it's clearly paid off, big time. Add in strong reviews (83% on RT) and very surprisingly solid word-of-mouth (95% Flixter score), it should hold up stronger than expected as well.
     Starting out with $47.4 million on Friday (including $12.7m from Thursday), 'Deadpool' fell a slim 10.2% on Saturday to gross $42.5 million and increased 0.2% on Valentine's Day to gross $42.6 million. It fell 53.6% on President's Day to make $19.8 million. The (3-day) weekend-to-Friday ratio is a very solid 2.79-to-1. That's much better than the 2.56-to-1 ratio of 2014's 'X-Men: Days of Future Past', the 2.52-to-1 ratio of 2007's '300', and the 2.25-to-1 ratio of 2009's 'Watchmen'. What's ironic is that the spin-off's opening is way higher than any debut from the franchise that spawned it. The previous franchise high was 'X-Men: The Last Stand' ($102.8m), which 'Deadpool' absolutely demolished. Because of the aforementioned solid reviews and phenomenal word-of-mouth, I expect 'Deadpool' to hold up better than your average superhero movie, which is why I think it's very likely it will close in the $365m-$385m range. It might even have a chance at clearing $400 million, though we'll have to wait the next couple weeks to see if that's possible.
     In second place, 'Kung Fu Panda 3' held up very well with $19.8 million, down just 7% from last weekend. The $140-million animated comedy grossed $25.9 million for the four-day weekend, making it increase 22% from last weekend and push past the $100-million mark. So far, 'Panda' has grossed a solid $100.2 million in three weeks, and will make a run for $145 million total.
     In third place, Warner Bros.' $38-million romantic comedy 'How to Be Single' proved to be the best counter-programming against 'Deadpool' among the newcomers this weekend, taking in $17.9 million ($19.9m four-day). That is right in line with pre-release expectations ($19m-$20m for the 4-day weekend). Due to her breakout performance last year in 'Fifty Shades of Grey', Dakota Johnson now seems like a viable box office draw, and Rebel Wilson is still a growing star. Even though reviews aren't that kind (47% on RT), audiences are more forgiving ('B' CinemaScore).
     'How to Be Single' began with $5.3 million on Friday, increased an encouraging 13.6% on Saturday to make $6 million, and increased another 11.7% on Sunday to earn $6.7 million. It fell 69.6% on Monday to make $2 million. While it's unlikely it will be leggy enough to triple this opening, it should still hold up fairly well in the coming weeks. It should make at least $45 million before the end of its run.
     In a very disappointing fourth, Paramount's $50-million comedy sequel to the 2001 cult hit 'Zoolander 2' brought in just $13.8 million over the three-day weekend and $15.9 million over the four-day weekend. Unfortunately, that first figure is actually below the UNADJUSTED opening of the first 'Zoolander', which debuted to $15.5 million. It's obvious that the cast aren't reliable box office draws now, but that's not the only factor. Opening against 'Deadpool' already limited its potential, and now that 'Deadpool' has demolished expectations and records, poor 'Zoolander' only has the fans of the original to turn to. And even then some didn't show up due to the poor reviews (22% on RT) and unconvincing word-of-mouth (35% Flixter score).
     'Zoolander' began with $4.2 million on Friday, increased 10.7% on Saturday and earned $4.6 million, and increased 9.4% on Sunday to make $5.1 million. On Monday the comedy dropped 59.6% and grossed $2 million. With horrid reviews, troubling word-of-mouth, and overall disinterest among moviegoers, 'Zoolander' should fade away quickly. It would truly be surprising if it made much more than $33 million.
     Fifth belonged to 'The Revenant' for 3-day weekend, bringing in $6.5 million (-6%). In the end, the $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio led Western thriller has grossed $159.8 million. It is on the verge of passing 'Django Unchained' ($162.8m) and 'Catch Me If You Can' ($164.6m) to become DiCaprio's third biggest movie ever behind only 'Titanic' ($658.7m) and 'Inception' ($292.6m). A $180 million finish is likely at this point. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' took the spot in the four-day weekend with $7.6 million (+9.6%) for a new total of $916.3 million. Expect a $930 million finish for the record-breaker. It landed in seventh for the 3-day weekend with $6.2 million (-11.7%).
     Sixth place was occupied by 'Hail, Caesar!' for the three-day weekend and 'The Revenant' for the four-day weekend. The former took in $6.4 million (-43.7%) in three days and $7.4 million (-35.1%) in four. 'Revenant' grossed $7.6 million (+9.3%). As for 'Caesar!', it's performing unusually front-loaded for a Coens film due to weak word-of-mouth (46% Flixter score). With a disappointing $22.1 million in two weeks of play, $30 million seems doable.
     Eight and ninth places belonged to 'The Choice' and 'Ride Along 2' in both weekends. The former brought in $5.2 million (3-day/-13.7%) and $5.8 million (4-day/-3.7%) while the latter grossed $4.5 million (3-day/-2.2%) and $5.1 million (4-day/+11.5%). 'Choice' grossed $13.2 million in two weeks and should end its run with around $18 million while 'Ride Along' has gathered $83 million and will probably close with over/under $90 million.
     Tenth, eleventh, and twelfth places were tightly bunched together for the three-day and four-day weekends. Tenth was 'The Boy' with $3.1 million (-23.1%) and $3.6 million (-12.5%), eleventh was 'The Finest Hours' which brought in $2.7 million (3-day/-43.7%) and 'Fifth Wave' with $3.3 million (4-day/-12.4%), and twelfth was 'The Fifth Wave' with $2.7 million (3-day/-28.4%) and 'Finest Hours' $3.2 million (4-day/-32.9%). 'The Boy' ($31.4m) and 'The Fifth Wave' ($30.1m) have been displaying stronger-than-expected holding power thus far, but unfortunately 'Finest Hours' ($23.8m) is slowing down significantly. I expect a $35 million finish for both 'Boy' and 'Fifth Wave' but no more than $28 million for 'Finest Hours'.
     Overall, this weekend's Top 12 grossed a massive $221.2 million ($257.5m four-day), which is up a whopping 169.7% from last weekend and up 10.2% from last year (+11.3% from the four-day weekend) when 'Fifty Shades' broke the record. This is by far the biggest President's Day weekend ever in history, pushing the yearly total to $1.476 billion (+1.2% from the same point last year).
     Next weekend should be a lot quieter with 'Deadpool' repeating in first. Sure, the new releases could break out, but it still won't be enough to match this weekend. The newcomers include Focus Feature's 'Race', the Jesse Owens biopic that will attempt to replicate the success of '42' and avoid the failure of 'Get On Up', Sony's 'Risen', a new tale about Jesus that will try to differentiate itself from previous faith-based epics, and A24's 'The Witch', which is going straight into wide release, a first for the studio.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Friday Report: 'Deadpool' Super, 'Zoolander 2' Not So Fancy and Audiences Learn 'How to Be Single'

     On a very special weekend, three new wide releases fight against each other to ultimately win the hearts of date night crowds this Sunday. But on Friday, it was very easy for one little superhero film to take the top spot. Now, the question is how well will it hold up over the four-day weekend, and also will date night audiences be able to swoon it towards a spot in the Top 20 biggest domestic openings of all time. Meanwhile, the more appealing choices for couples wound up in a pretty tight race, but eventually one overtook the other, which should have done better because of the built-in cult following of the first. Let's get to the statistics.
     Easily claiming first place, the $58-million R-rated Ryan Reynolds led superhero comedy 'Deadpool' blew away expectations as well as a few records. It grossed an outstanding $47.5 million yesterday. That is way bigger than 'Fifty Shades of Grey''s $30.3 million opening day haul and way ahead of Fox's last Valentine's Day opener 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($10.4m). It represents the biggest R-rated opening day ever, the biggest February opening day ever, and, ironically, the biggest opening in the 'X-Men' franchise, which the film is a spin-off of. 'Deadpool' absolutely slaughtered other President's Day comic book films like 'Ghost Rider' ($15.4m) and its sequel ($6.9m), 'Daredevil' ($15.3m), and 'Constantine' ($10.9m) as well as R-rated adaptations '300' ($28.1m) and its sequel ($17.5m), 'Wanted' ($19m), 'Watchmen' ($24.5m), and 'Blade II' ($12m). In fact, it beat already out-grossed the opening weekend of seven of all the previously mentioned films, which is very impressive. The only comic book adaptations that had higher openings are the two 'Avengers' films, the last two 'Dark Knight' films, the last two 'Iron Man' films, and 'Spider-Man 3'. Among R-rated films, it beat 'The Matrix Reloaded' ($37.5m) for the biggest R-rated opening day and the aforementioned $30.3 million from 'Grey' for the biggest February opening. Some other records that are bound to be broken this weekend are the biggest February opening (currently the $85.2m from 'Grey'), the biggest R-rated opening (the $91.8m from 'Matrix'), the largest four-day President's Day weekend ($93m from 'Grey'), the biggest R-rated comic adaptation opening ($70.9m from '300'), the largest Winter opening ($89.3m from 'American Sniper'), and the biggest 20th Century Fox opening ($108.4m from 'Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith).
     Okay, so now on to actually predicting its opening. If it plays like 'Grey', a 3-day weekend around $133.5 million seems plausible as well as a $144 million four-day take. If it instead follows the pattern of 'Matrix', its three-day gross will be something like $116 million but four-day earnings would be around $150 million. If it plays like the two 'Wolverine' spin-offs, then it will earn $117m-$122m three-day. Ultimately, I expect a $118-million three-day weekend and a $135-million four-day weekend, and reviews and word-of-mouth should carry it on from there.
     The $38-million Dakota Johnson/Rebel Wilson led romantic comedy 'How to Be Single' debuted strongly in second, taking in $5.3 million. While that's no 'Fifty Shades' or 'Pitch Perfect', it is still a respectable debut for the R-rated feature. It is slightly below the $5.6 million opening of 2012's 'This Means War' but ahead of 'Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son' ($4.8m). When it came to choosing 'Zoolander 2' or this film for date night, it's pretty apparent many went for this choice. Reviews aren't too good however, and word-of-mouth is decent at most. Expect a three-day weekend of $18 million and a four-day take of $21 million.
     In a disappointing third, the $50-million ensemble comedy sequel to the 2001 cult hit 'Zoolander', 'Zoolander 2', debuted softly with $4.2 million. Reviews obviously had an impact, and the trailers just didn't look all that funny. Opening against 'Deadpool' also stole some of its thunder as well. A $12.5 million three-day gross and $15 million four-day gross is likely.
     Rounding out the Top 5 were holdovers 'Kung Fu Panda 3' ($3.9m/-25.2%) and 'Hail, Caesar!' ($1.5m/-66%). While the former has been holding up very well (which ultimately got the $140-million animated comedy to $78.1m), the latter has been showing signs of significant front-loading, especially for a Coens film. 'Caesar!' has brought in a modest $16.2 million eight days. 'Panda' is looking at a $18.5m 3-day/$24m 4-day gross while 'Caesar!' should make $6.5m 3-day/$7.5m 4-day.

Weekend Forecast
1. 'Deadpool' - $117.8 million 3-day/$136.2 million 4-day
2. 'Kung Fu Panda 3' - $18.6 million 3-day/$23.9 million 4-day
3. 'How to Be Single' - $18 million 3-day/$21.3 million 4-day
4. 'Zoolander No. 2' - $12.4 million 3-day/$14.8 million 4-day
5. 'Hail, Caesar!' - $6.6 million 3-day/$7.3 million 4-day

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Weekend Estimates: 'Panda' Still in the Lead, Audiences Don't 'Hail, Caesar!' or Pick 'The Choice' and 'Pride and Prejudice and Zombies'

     As usual on Super Bowl weekend, the box office was down quite a bit from last week. 'Kung Fu Panda 3' led the weekend box office for the second time in a row while 'The Revenant' and 'Star Wars' held up pretty well, the latter of which crossed two major milestones this weekend. As for the new releases, the Coen Brothers brought 'Hail, Caesar!' to theaters only to be met with decent results, the latest Nicholas Sparks film continued the downwards trend of the genre, and 'Pride and Prejudice and Zombies' failed to bring the zombie genre back to life.
     Dropping a significant 49.1% from its $41.3 million opening (a franchise low), 'Kung Fu Panda 3' continued to underwhelm with a $21 million take. The $145-million Jack Black led animated comedy has received less positive reviews from critics than from the last two installments (an 80% RT score), but is the highest-rated in the franchise when it comes to word-of-mouth (an 88% Flixter score and an 'A' CinemaScore, tied with 'Kung Fu Panda 2'). It is actually performing rather closely to last November's 'The Peanuts Movie', which opened with $44.2 million and fell 45.7% in its second weekend to earn $24 million. However, 'Panda' has the added benefit of President's Day next weekend, which will certainly help it hold up a lot better than the 45% third-weekend decrease of  'Peanuts'. There isn't any major family competition until 'Zootopia' on March 4, so it should benefit from that too. So far, a $135 million is most likely.
     In second place, the Coen Brothers directed $22-million mystery comedy 'Hail, Caesar!', which opened to a modest $11.4 million for a $5.1k per-theater average. That is a bit below the $12m-$15m pre-release projections, and a low opening in general for the Coens. Unfortunately, old-fashioned movies aren't really connecting with audiences anymore ('In the Heart of the Sea', 'The Finest Hours', and now 'Hail, Caesar!' have all disappointed) with the exception of 'Brooklyn', which received extremely positive reviews and Oscar buzz. Younger audiences are becoming a bigger portion of moviegoers, and apparently 1950's set films regardless of their star-studded cast just don't seem appealing to them. And while reviews are fairly positive (79% on RT), word-of-mouth is unusually and unexpectedly very negative (48% Flixter score and 'C-' on CinemaScore).
     The comedy began with $4.3 million on Friday (including $543k from Thursday), increased 21.7% on Saturday to earn $5.3 million, and fell a whopping 65.1% on Sunday to make $1.8 million (due to the Super Bowl). That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a decent 2.65-to-1. That is better than the 2.59-to-1 ratio of last year's 'Project Almanac' but well below the 2.94-to-1 ratio of the Coens' 'Burn After Reading', another star-studded mid-budget project that included George Clooney. 'Caesar' was also more front-loaded than the 3.19-to-1 ratio of 2014's 'The Monuments Men', which was received negatively by both critics and audiences. A finish slightly above $30 million is very likely.
     'The Revenant' was pushed down one spot, declining 44.4% and making $7.1 million. The $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio led Western thriller has so far made a very strong $149.7 million in seven weeks of play (including its limited run). Strong reviews and word-of-mouth as well as the Oscar nominations continue to play a pivotal role in its box office performance, and should get 'Revenant' past $165 million before it disappears from theaters.
     In an exceptionally solid fourth, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' had the best hold among the wide releases this weekend, dropping just 38% to gross $6.9 million. In the process, the $200-million J. J. Abrams directed franchise revival passed the $900 million mark domestically, the first film in history to ever do so (not adjusting for inflation). With a whopping $906 million in the bank, 'Star Wars' currently stands in eleventh place on the all-time adjusted chart, past '101 Dalmations' ($869.3m) and below 'Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs' ($948.3m). 'Star Wars' likely close with around $920 million total. Worldwide, it became only the third film ever to cross the $2-billion mark, joining the likes of James Cameron's 'Avatar' ($2.8b) and 'Titanic' ($2.2b). It doesn't seem like 'Star Wars' will catch up to either of those films (though it could come close to 'Titanic''s figure), but with $2.008 billion already, it doesn't have to. It has so far gathered $1.1 billion overseas. A $2.15 billion worldwide total seems likely at this point.
     In a soft fifth place, the $10-million Nicholas Sparks adaptation 'The Choice' debuted with a meager $6.1 million for a $2.3k average. That is way below the previous franchise lows of 'The Best of Me' ($10m) and 'The Longest Ride' ($13m). If it wasn't already, it is now crystal clear that Nicholas Sparks movies definitely aren't as popular as they were a few years ago (the most recent Sparks hit is 'Safe Haven' with $71.3m total). Reviews are absolutely horrible (a paltry 8% on RT), but audiences (as usual) are more forgiving (64% on Flixter).
     After receiving $2.5 million on Friday, 'Choice' increased 7.7% on Saturday and brought in $2.7 million and fell 65% on Sunday to earn $935k. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.44-to-1, which is on par with 'The Best of Me' and better than 'The Longest Ride' (2.36-to-1). Because Valentine's Day is coming next week (although it will face some competition from 'How to Be Single') and mostly positive word-of-mouth, 'Choice' has a chance at holding up better than both of those films. However, just to be safe, I'm predicting a $15 million domestic cume.
     Although 'Choice' was no blockbuster, it wasn't the biggest disappointment of the weekend. That title belongs to the $28-million YA adaptation 'Pride and Prejudice and Zombies', which could only muster $5.2 million and a $1.8k average. That is way below expectations, which tended to range from $9.5m-$12m. Period horror isn't doing so well nowadays, as last fall's 'Crimson Peak' and 'Victor Frankenstein' were outright flops.
     'Pride' started out with $2 million on Friday, increased 15.2% on Saturday to earn $2.3 million, and dropped 65% on Sunday to make $820k. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is 2.6-to-1, which is below 'Zombieland' (2.63-to-1) but better than 'Warm Bodies' (2.52-to-1), which also opened on Super Bowl weekend but earned a solid $20.4 million. With middling reviews (41% on RT) but decent word-of-mouth (63% Flixter score), it's kind of hard to predict where it will be heading. It would be surprising, though, if it made much more than $15 million in the long run.
     Overall, the Top 12 of the weekend was down 34.4% from the previous run, earning $81.6 million. It is also down 40.3% from last year when 'Spongebob 2' ruled the box office, though that was the weekend after Super Bowl weekend.
     President's Day weekend should be a lot more interesting, as the very highly-anticipated R-rated superhero action comedy 'Deadpool' will finally arrive in theaters after the dreadful 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine' version, the also-highly-anticipated sequel to the 2001 cult hit 'Zoolander', and the romantic comedy 'How to Be Single', which stars Rebel Wilson and Dakota Johnson, the lead of last year's massive success 'Fifty Shades of Grey'.