Friday Report: 'Deadpool' Super, 'Zoolander 2' Not So Fancy and Audiences Learn 'How to Be Single'

     On a very special weekend, three new wide releases fight against each other to ultimately win the hearts of date night crowds this Sunday. But on Friday, it was very easy for one little superhero film to take the top spot. Now, the question is how well will it hold up over the four-day weekend, and also will date night audiences be able to swoon it towards a spot in the Top 20 biggest domestic openings of all time. Meanwhile, the more appealing choices for couples wound up in a pretty tight race, but eventually one overtook the other, which should have done better because of the built-in cult following of the first. Let's get to the statistics.

     Easily claiming first place, the $58-million R-rated Ryan Reynolds led superhero comedy 'Deadpool' blew away expectations as well as a few records. It grossed an outstanding $47.5 million yesterday. That is way bigger than 'Fifty Shades of Grey''s $30.3 million opening day haul and way ahead of Fox's last Valentine's Day opener 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($10.4m). It represents the biggest R-rated opening day ever, the biggest February opening day ever, and, ironically, the biggest opening in the 'X-Men' franchise, which the film is a spin-off of. 'Deadpool' absolutely slaughtered other President's Day comic book films like 'Ghost Rider' ($15.4m) and its sequel ($6.9m), 'Daredevil' ($15.3m), and 'Constantine' ($10.9m) as well as R-rated adaptations '300' ($28.1m) and its sequel ($17.5m), 'Wanted' ($19m), 'Watchmen' ($24.5m), and 'Blade II' ($12m). In fact, it beat already out-grossed the opening weekend of seven of all the previously mentioned films, which is very impressive. The only comic book adaptations that had higher openings are the two 'Avengers' films, the last two 'Dark Knight' films, the last two 'Iron Man' films, and 'Spider-Man 3'. Among R-rated films, it beat 'The Matrix Reloaded' ($37.5m) for the biggest R-rated opening day and the aforementioned $30.3 million from 'Grey' for the biggest February opening. Some other records that are bound to be broken this weekend are the biggest February opening (currently the $85.2m from 'Grey'), the biggest R-rated opening (the $91.8m from 'Matrix'), the largest four-day President's Day weekend ($93m from 'Grey'), the biggest R-rated comic adaptation opening ($70.9m from '300'), the largest Winter opening ($89.3m from 'American Sniper'), and the biggest 20th Century Fox opening ($108.4m from 'Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith).
     Okay, so now on to actually predicting its opening. If it plays like 'Grey', a 3-day weekend around $133.5 million seems plausible as well as a $144 million four-day take. If it instead follows the pattern of 'Matrix', its three-day gross will be something like $116 million but four-day earnings would be around $150 million. If it plays like the two 'Wolverine' spin-offs, then it will earn $117m-$122m three-day. Ultimately, I expect a $118-million three-day weekend and a $135-million four-day weekend, and reviews and word-of-mouth should carry it on from there.
     The $38-million Dakota Johnson/Rebel Wilson led romantic comedy 'How to Be Single' debuted strongly in second, taking in $5.3 million. While that's no 'Fifty Shades' or 'Pitch Perfect', it is still a respectable debut for the R-rated feature. It is slightly below the $5.6 million opening of 2012's 'This Means War' but ahead of 'Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son' ($4.8m). When it came to choosing 'Zoolander 2' or this film for date night, it's pretty apparent many went for this choice. Reviews aren't too good however, and word-of-mouth is decent at most. Expect a three-day weekend of $18 million and a four-day take of $21 million.

     In a disappointing third, the $50-million ensemble comedy sequel to the 2001 cult hit 'Zoolander', 'Zoolander 2', debuted softly with $4.2 million. Reviews obviously had an impact, and the trailers just didn't look all that funny. Opening against 'Deadpool' also stole some of its thunder as well. A $12.5 million three-day gross and $15 million four-day gross is likely.
     Rounding out the Top 5 were holdovers 'Kung Fu Panda 3' ($3.9m/-25.2%) and 'Hail, Caesar!' ($1.5m/-66%). While the former has been holding up very well (which ultimately got the $140-million animated comedy to $78.1m), the latter has been showing signs of significant front-loading, especially for a Coens film. 'Caesar!' has brought in a modest $16.2 million eight days. 'Panda' is looking at a $18.5m 3-day/$24m 4-day gross while 'Caesar!' should make $6.5m 3-day/$7.5m 4-day.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Deadpool' - $117.8 million 3-day/$136.2 million 4-day

2. 'Kung Fu Panda 3' - $18.6 million 3-day/$23.9 million 4-day

3. 'How to Be Single' - $18 million 3-day/$21.3 million 4-day

4. 'Zoolander No. 2' - $12.4 million 3-day/$14.8 million 4-day

5. 'Hail, Caesar!' - $6.6 million 3-day/$7.3 million 4-day