Sunday, February 28, 2016

Weekend Actuals: 'Deadpool' Crushes Weak Newcomers on Oscar Weekend

     Starting today, the 88th Academy Awards is one of the most anticipated award shows of the year. Although it is viewed nationwide by millions, not everyone is interested in seeing who brings home the gold. Instead, they go see the actual movies on the big screen. While they seemed interested in the holdovers, very few went to see the new releases, all of which will struggle to make back their budget domestically.
     Easily repeating in first place for the third weekend in a row before relinquishing it next week, the $58-million R-rated Ryan Reynolds led superhero action comedy 'Deadpool' continued demolishing the box office, bringing in $31.1 million for an outstanding and monstrous $285.3 million in just three weeks of play. That is down just 44.9% from last weekend, stabilizing nicely after its nosedive in its second weekend. 'Deadpool' has been performing way ahead of expectations and has become the highest-grossing X-Men movie ever as well as becoming the third-biggest R-rated movie of all time, ahead of 'The Matrix Reloaded' ($281.6m) and 'The Hangover' ($277.3m). Among comic book and superhero movies, it ranks 13th on both charts ahead of 'The Amazing Spider-Man' ($262m). Next it will be passing 'Man of Steel' ($291m), whose follow-up 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' will try snatch one of the biggest openings of all time, and is looking at a finish between 'Guardians of the Galaxy' ($333.2m) and 'Spider-Man 2' ($373.6m). Unfortunately, it is no longer a guarantee it will pass $400 million domestic, but with such a small budget that doesn't really matter. Worldwide it made another $40.1 million, bringing its foreign gross to $324.1 million and $609.3 million. The only other X-Men movie to gross more than $600 million worldwide is 'X-Men: Days of Future Past', which benefited greatly from rapid market growth and ended its run with $747.9 million worldwide, a number 'Deadpool' is likely to pass.
     In a distant and horrible second place, the $140-million Alex Proyas directed original action fantasy 'Gods of Egypt' flopped very hardly with only $14.1 million ($4.5k PTA). While that is generally in line with pre-release in expectations ($10m-$15m), it is still a terrible start for the big-budget film. It opened way below 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' ($24.1m) and 'Clash of the Titans' ($61.2m) and even failed to match 'Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters' ($14.4m). Among the director's previous outings, it failed to reach the openings of 'I, Robot' ($52.2m) and 'Knowing' ($24.6m). Don't worry about star Gerard Butler though, who will get another chance at box office glory next weekend with the action sequel 'London Has Fallen'. Ultimately, the whitewashing of the cast caused a bit of a stir, and big-budget originals generally don't do well nowadays.
     Opening with a poor $4.8 million ($800k from Thursday) on Friday, 'Gods' increased 17.4% on Saturday for $5.6 million and fell 33.4% on Sunday to gross $3.7 million. That is a weekend-to-Friday ratio 2.94-to-1, which is one of the only positive notes in this weekend's performance. However, that will matter little in the long run as disastrous reviews (12% on RT) and middling word-of-mouth (49% Flixter score) will surely keep it back from holding up as well as the ratio suggests. It would be surprising if it made much more than $35 million total.
     'Kung Fu Panda 3' managed to enjoy one last weekend in peace before next week's 'Zootopia' disrupts it, pulling in $8.9 million and dropping just 28.9% from last weekend. The $140-million animated comedy sequel has so far grossed $128.4 million since opening on January 29, and should wind up with around $145 million total.
     'Risen' held up pretty well this weekend, falling just 42.3% to make $6.8 million. The $20-million faith-based drama hasn't been relying on critical reviews (57% on RT) but instead on solid word-of-mouth ('A-' CinemaScore). With $22.5 million so far, 'Risen' will hope to hold up well against an onslaught of faith-based films in March and April. $40 million is likely.
     'Triple 9' was even slower than 'Gods', eking out just $6.1 million from 2,205 locations for a lackluster $2.8k average. The $20-million ensemble led crime thriller from Open Roads was widely expected to be the break-out performer of the weekend with around $9m-$12.5m, but it clearly failed to meet those standards. With a lot more appealing options in the market already, it would make sense for audiences to skip this. Reviews were far from promising (55% on RT), but word-of-mouth was even worse ('C+' CinemaScore).
     On Friday, the film grossed $2.1 million, increased 12% on Saturday to earn $2.4 million, and fell 35% on Sunday to make $1.6 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is 2.9-to-1, which is the weakest of the new releases. With middling word-of-mouth, it's unlikely it will reach $20 million by the end of its run.
     'Eddie the Eagle' fared the worst for the new releases, though it won't cost the studio as much money. The $23-million sports dramedy rounded up $6.1 million for a $2,980 per-theater average. Starring Taron Egerton and Hugh Jackman, expectations for this film were always modest ($7m-$8m), but no one expected an opening this low. If it opened closer to the 2016 Olympics in August instead of early in the year (this might have benefited last weekend's 'Race' as well), 'Eddie' may have been something noteworthy, but the timing just wasn't right.
     On Friday, 'Eddie' grossed $1.9 million ($175k from Thursday night shows), increased an encouraging 43.2% on Saturday to gross $2.8 million, and declined a troubling 50.6% on Sunday to claim $1.4 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a strong 3.21-to-1, which means that 'Eddie' has a chance at holding up well in the coming weeks. Solid reviews (73% on RT) and word-of-mouth (88% on Flixter) should certainly help as well. A $20 million finish is very likely for the feel-good, family-friendly pic.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend made $97.5 million, which was down 22.1% from last weekend but up 4.3% from last year when 'Focus' took the top spot.
     Next week sees the highly-anticipated release of Disney's 'Zootopia', the questionable release of 'London Has Fallen', and the release of Tina Fey's 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot'.

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