Monthly Forecast: March 2016

     As a solid February is coming to a close (led by none other than 'Deadpool'), a new month begins that will attempt at a shot for the biggest March ever. Strong contenders include 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', 'Zootopia', '10 Cloverfield Lane', 'Miracles from Heaven', 'The Divergent Series: Allegiant', and 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2'.

London Has Fallen

The sequel to the 2013 surprise hit 'Olympus Has Fallen' ($98.9m) returns to theaters, attacking 3,250 theaters and carrying a bigger price tag ($105m compared to the first's $70m budget). Action sequels are hit-and-miss nowadays, with recent successes 'Furious 7' ($353m) and 'Mad Max: Fury Road' ($153.6m) but misfires like 'A Good Day to Die Hard' ($67.3m) and 'Terminator Genisys' ($89.8m). This one looks like it will perform closer to the latter group, as there just doesn't feel like a lot of hype is surrounding the film. Also, while Aaron Eckhart and Morgan Freeman star alongside Gerard Butler (who's coming off of the embarrassing performance of 'Gods of Egypt'), they aren't guaranteed draws (Eckhart couldn't save 'My All American' ($2.2m) and Freeman couldn't get audiences to come to 'Transcendence' ($23m)). Overall, this should play very similar to 'A Good Day to Die Hard' if not a little better.
Predicted Opening: $26 million
Predicted Total: $71.5 million

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Tina Fey is coming off of the fresh success of December's 'Sisters' ($87m and counting), which debuted to $13.9 million against 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' and 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip', providing solid counter-programming for audiences who wanted a solid laugh at the theaters. It looks to be a similar situation this weekend, as Fey's latest film 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot', which also stars Margot Robbie, Martin Freeman, and Alfred Molina, will be going up against a big-budget action sequel and a family-friendly offering. Reviews are in line with 'Sisters' (it currently holds a 63% Tomatometer score on RT), and anticipation is as well (+95% want-to-see score on RT). The marketing has been pretty decent, and the R rating didn't stop 'Sisters' from being a huge hit. However, similarly-themed film 'Our Brand is Crisis' was a huge flop in October (opened with $3.2m and ended with $7m against a $28m budget), so this could potentially underperform. However, stronger reviews and a stronger cast should make this a modest success overall.
Predicted Opening: $11.5 million
Predicted Total: $33 million

Zootopia

This is being predicted as the big winner this weekend. Disney is releasing the new animated film 'Zootopia' across 3,700 locations nationwide. Unlike your typical animated film, 'Zootopia' has been generating strong online activity levels for a while now, a feat that only big-name franchises like 'Toy Story' and 'Despicable Me' have managed to do in recent years. The trailers have been met with very positive results, and it seems like that buzz is being transferred over to critics (its Tomatometer score is at a stellar 100% on RT). However, it could still underwhelm, as recent animated movies ('Kung Fu Panda 3', 'The Good Dinosaur', 'The Peanuts Movie') have failed to meet or exceed expectations both on opening weekend and in the long run. Still, this seems more of a safe bet than the previously mentioned titles, so don't be surprised if it opens similar to 'Big Hero 6' or maybe even 'Despicable Me 2'.
Predicted Opening: $72 million
Predicted Total: $245 million

10 Cloverfield Lane

For fans of the original 2008 hit, this is the moment you have been waiting for. Although it seemed a sequel will never happen, the "blood relative" (which worked under the titles 'The Cellar' and 'Valencia') generated much buzz after the first trailer was dropped in January. And adding J. J. Abrams to the mix will only increase that buzz. Whether or not it can match the monstrous $80-million total of 'Cloverfield' remains to be seen, but anticipation for the film is rather high (+98% on RT) and has a sort of event feel to it. I don't expect it to match its predecessor's opening, but it could have stronger holding power in the long run.  
Predicted Opening: $36.5 million
Predicted Total: $82 million

The Brothers Grimsby

For those of you who aren't familiar with his work, Sacha Baron Cohen is a raunchy comedian that has starred in past hits like 'Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan' ($128.5m), 'Bruno' ($60.1m), and 'The Dictator' ($59.7m). Note the declining grosses in each comedy title. It's already opened in six markets ($3.7m overall gross) with solid results, but does that mean strong domestic returns? The cast also includes Mark Strong ('Kingsman: The Secret Service'), Penelope Cruz ('Zoolander 2'), and Rebel Wilson ('How to Be Single'), so there's some appeal there. Reviews are mixed though (50% on RT), and anticipation is surprisingly low (+88% on RT), which shows minimal audience interest. Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised if it fails to break $10 million in its opening weekend, as there are many factors that point to that possibility.
Predicted Opening: $6.5 million
Predicted Total: $14 million

The Perfect Match

I'm not going to spend too much time on this one. It just looks like your typical romance comedy. It will likely provide decent counter-programming, with a modestly profitable director and cast backing it up. It won't match 'How to Be Single''s $17.9 million debut, but $10 should be doable.
Predicted Opening: $12 million
Predicted Total: $31.5 million

The Young Messiah

After 'Risen' kicked off the onslaught of faith-based movies this spring, 'The Young Messiah' will try to capitalize on the successes of similarly-themed movies. Its pre-established fanbase from the novel should turn up, and ones who are interested in the life of Jesus as a child instead of watching him already in adulthood should pay to see this as well. There will be a lot of audience overlap in the market though, since 'Risen' will act as a holdover and 'Miracles from Heaven' and 'God's Not Dead 2' will compete for the same target demographic. 'Messiah' will most likely open modestly and experience strong holding power later in its run.
Predicted Opening: $8 million
Predicted Total: $28 million

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

The YA-movie craze is obviously starting to wear off on audiences. In January, 'The Fifth Wave' opened modestly with just $10.3 million and 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' underwhelmed with $30.3 million, which was slightly down from its predecessor. The 'Hunger Games' franchise has also experienced a bit of a cool down recently as well, with its lowest-grossing entry 'Mockingjay - Part 2' ($281.7m and counting) just about wrapping up its run in theaters. The same should happen for 'The Divergent Series', which also experienced a franchise low with last March's 'Insurgent', which opened to $52.3 million and topped out at $130.2 million, which was significantly down from its predecessor's $150.9 million total in 2014. There is a lot of reason to why the series will experience another decline in ticket sales and grosses, such as lower online activity, the lukewarm reception from the last installment (29% RT score from critics and 60% Flixter score from audiences), and the aforementioned YA fatigue. While it should still be a success ('Insurgent' found a larger overseas audience than 'Divergent'), it would also be a disappointment as well.
Predicted Opening: $37.5 million
Predicted Total: $99 million

Miracles from Heaven

Continuing the slew of faith-based movies is the Jennifer Garner led 'Miracles from Heaven', based on a true story (many of them are). This one looks very similar to 2014's sleeper hit 'Heaven is for Real', which debuted to $22.5 million and finished with $91.4 million. That film had a weaker cast and an arguably less interesting premise, so it is likely 'Heaven' will match that figure if not pass it. The PG-rated drama opens on Wednesday before 'Allegiant', so little kids who are too young for the YA-adapted actioner will probably fill theaters playing this one. I expect a five-day total of around $25 million and a three-day opening of around $20 million.
Predicted Opening: $21.5 million ($28 million 5-day)
Predicted Total: $85.5 million

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

This will probably be the big winner of the month, and possibly one of the biggest of the year. After 'Deadpool' set a new bench mark for 2016 superhero movies a few weeks ago with $132.7 million, 'Dawn of Justice' will attempt to surpass that figure as well as its predecessor 'Man of Steel''s opening ($116.6m). First of all, anticipation is very, very high (+99% from 101k users on RT are excited for this film), although it can't quite match 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' (+100% from 250k users right before release). That film opened to $191.3 million in the beginning of May, which was when 'Justice' was originally scheduled for release until 'Captain America: Civil War' continued the annual "begin-the-summer-with-a-Marvel-movie" tradition (which would have made an epic showdown, but had enough reason for one of them to move). It's unlikely it will get that high, and probably won't even reach 'Iron Man 3' ($174.1). 'Justice' will likely surpass the likes of 'Spider-Man 3' ($151.1m), 'The Dark Knight' ($158.4m), and 'The Dark Knight Rises' ($160.9m). Either way, it will have one of the biggest openings ever for any kind of movie, which is a remarkable feat believe it or not. With a budget of around $200 million (less than 'Man of Steel''s $225m budget or 'Avengers'' $220m budget), this should become one of the most profitable movies of all time. I believe it will have the strength to push past $165 million on opening weekend, and that it should get pretty close to 'Avengers: Age of Ultron''s $459 million total, although there definitely is the possibility it could surpass that.
Predicted Opening: $167.5 million
Predicted Total: $427 million

The Disappointments Room

Faith-based films aren't the only movie genre invading the market in 2016. Supernatural horror is also having a busy year, with successful releases already from January ('The Forest' and 'The Boy'). While it's unlikely 'Disappointments Room' will make it past $10 million like those films, it should still perform solidly in both its opening weekend and the long run. Director D.J. Caruso should make a modest comeback with this one, having directed modest performers 'I Am Number Four' ($55.1m) and 'Eagle Eye' ($101.4m). Star Kate Beckinsale should prove a reliable draw here as well.
Predicted Opening: $9 million
Predicted Total: $21 million

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

After a whopping 14 years, audiences get to experience more romantic craziness as the sequel to the 2002 smash hit 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding' ($241.4m) finally arrives in theaters. This time, it's being directed by Kirk Jones, who has had modest success with 'What to Expect When You're Expecting' ($41.2m) and 'Nanny McPhee' ($47.1m). It's very likely 'Wedding' passes those grosses, but the question is by how much. It looks like it captures the spirit of the original, which is a key selling point for nostalgic movies like this. The original is fairly fondly remembered (a 73% Flixter score as well as a 76% RT score), and anticipation is pretty respectable (+94% on RT). However, 14 years is a very long time to wait, no matter how fondly remembered the predecessor was ('Terminator Genisys' anyone?). Still, it should provide very solid counter-programming, though it's hard to imagine it can retain at least half of the original's gross.
Predicted Opening: $26.5 million
Predicted Total: $89 million