More records will fall this weekend as 'Zootopia' attempts to claim the biggest March opening for an animated film. Meanwhile, 'London Has Fallen' provided solid counter-programming (for the most part) while the Tina Fey vehicle 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' underwhelmed.
In a very solid first place yesterday, Disney's latest animated feature 'Zootopia' claimed $19.5 million (including an estimated $1.7m from Thursday night showings). That marks the second biggest opening day gross for an animated film in March, behind the $21.8 million take of 'Ice Age: The Meltdown', and the biggest opening day gross for an original animated film in March, ahead of 'Dr. Seuss' The Lorax' ($17.5m). Those films went on to gross $68 million ('Ice Age') and $70.2 million ('Lorax'), figures that 'Zootopia' likely to pass. Among Walt Disney Animation releases, it is ahead of 'Big Hero 6' ($15.8m/$56.2m weekend) and the Wednesday expansion of 'Frozen' ($15.2m/$67.4m weekend). With a very stellar 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes as well as a 95% Flixter score, 'Zootopia' will likely hold up very well throughout the weekend and the long run. Although it has potential to beat Disney's fellow March release 'Oz The Great and Powerful' ($79.1m), I'm going to be a bit more conservative with an opening around $75 million.
In a solid second place, the $60m-$105m budgeted action sequel to the 2013 surprise hit 'Olympus Has Fallen' ($30.4m/$98.9m total) 'London Has Fallen' grossed an estimated $7.6 million. Although that's down 24.8% from 'Olympus'' $10.1 million take, it was never expected to match its predecessor. It's opening is below recent action sequels 'Taken 3' ($14.9m) and 'A Good Day to Die Hard' ($8.2m), although the latter opened on a Thursday on Valentine's Day weekend. It is at least better than 'Transporter 2' ($5.6m), 'The Expendables 3' ($6m), 'Red' ($7.3m), and '13 Hours' ($5.9m). If 'London' follows the patterns of those films, it will end the weekend anywhere from $20m-$23m. A finish of around $21 million is likely for the big-budget sequel, which means that it will need to significantly improve on the predecessor's overseas gross to become profitable.
Dethroned from the top spot for the first time, the $58-million R-rated Ryan Reynolds led superhero action comedy from Fox 'Deadpool' grossed $4.7 million on Friday, down a sizable 47.1% from last Friday. Despite the initial front-loading of its performance, 'Deadpool' has now grossed $299.5 million in 22 days. It will pass the $300 million mark today, and will likely finish with around $16m-$18m for the weekend.
The $35-million Tina Fey led war comedy 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' disappointed in fourth with just $2.4 million. That lower than last December's 'Sisters' ($5m), which had to face much heavier competition against 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' and, to a lesser extent, 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip'. It is at least more than double of what October flop 'Our Brand is Crisis' made on opening day ($1.1m), though that's little consolation. Reviews (61% on RT) and word-of-mouth (66% Flixter score) are middling, but Tina Fey, who is known for starring in fairly leggy films, should carry this through the weekend and in the coming weeks, though this performance is nothing to do cartwheels over. Expect a $5.5m-$7m opening.
Rounding out the Top 5 was the $140-million Alex Proyas directed action fantasy original 'Gods of Egypt', which has been dubbed the first big-budget flop of 2016. It continues to live up to the title, as it dropped a ghastly 72% from opening day and grossed a paltry $1.3 million. That drop is about on par with 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' (-74.3%/$2.3m) and is worse than other comparisons such as 'Jupiter Ascending' (-68.4%/$2m) and '300: Rise of an Empire' (-67%/$5.8m). A weekend of around $4.5 million is likely for this massive box office bomb.
Weekend Forecast
1. 'Zootopia' - $75.1 million
2. 'London Has Fallen' - $20.9 million
3. 'Deadpool' - $17.6 million (-43.4%)
4. 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' - $6.7 million
5. 'Gods of Egypt' - $4.6 million (-67.4%)
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