Sunday, March 13, 2016

Weekend Estimates: 'Zootopia' Gets Crowded Again, '10 Cloverfield Lane' Thrills, People Find 'The Perfect Match', Avoid 'The Young Messiah' and 'Brothers Grimsby'

     It was a busy weekend at the box office this weekend. Repeating in a very strong first place was Disney's 'Zootopia', with strong runner-up '10 Cloverfield Lane' and holdovers 'Deadpool', 'London Has Fallen', and 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' rounding out the Top 5. Meanwhile, one of the other new releases, 'The Perfect Match', had a respectable outing in less than 1,000 theaters and the two more high-profile pictures each flopped.
     Dropping just 33.4% from last week's stellar opening, Disney's $150-million animated original 'Zootopia' repeated in first place with $50 million. That's the biggest second weekend take for an animated film in March and the sixth-biggest second weekend gross for any animated film overall, behind only 'Shrek 2' ($72.2m), 'Toy Story 3' ($59.3m), 'Shrek the Third' ($53m), 'Inside Out' ($52.3m), and 'The Incredibles' ($50.3m). 'Zootopia' has so far grossed an awesome $142.6 million, and has the potential to cross $270 million domestic. It's doing outstandingly well overseas too, pulling in $83.1 million (+25%) this weekend for a new total of $288.7 million. Worldwide, the animated hit has made a solid $431.3 million and might be able to make it past $800 million.
     In a strong second place, the $15-million sci-fi thriller '10 Cloverfield Lane' brought in $25.2 million for a robust $7.4k per-theater average. Compared to the original 'Cloverfield' (which had a much stronger marketing campaign, faced less competition, and was found-footage while audiences still cared for that genre), it was way below the $40.1 million opening, although it was never really expected to make it that high. This is undoubtedly an impressive debut, as it opened right in line with expectations ($20m-$35m). Ultimately, the marketing campaign for this one managed to pull it off, including two mysterious teasers that just made anticipation for the film higher. Among similar titles, '10 Cloverfield Lane' opened right on par with last year's 'The Visit', which took in $25.4 million in September. Stronger-than-expected reviews and word-of-mouth (at least on Flixter) undoubtedly helped too.
     Starting out on Friday with $9 million (including $1.8m from Thursday night showings), 'Cloverfield' increased 7.8% on Saturday to gross $9.7 million and declined 33.1% on Sunday to make $6.5 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a solid 2.8-to-1, which beats 'The Visit' (2.76-to-1) and 'Cloverfield' itself (2.33-to-1). As previously said, reviews (90% on RT) and word-of-mouth (85% on Flixter) are pretty strong. The only concerning thing about this weekend's performance though is the CinemaScore rating, which currently stands at a 'B-', which is at least better than 'Cloverfield' ('C') and on par with 'The Visit' ('B-'). The original petered out at a disappointing 2x opening weekend multiplier, ending its run with $80 million. However, with much better reviews and word-of-mouth '10 Cloverfield Lane' will most likely wind up better than that. Don't be surprised if the film experiences legs similar to 'Visit', which would get it to around $65 million (around what 'Visit' got as well).
     Repeating in third was the $58-million R-rated Ryan Reynolds led superhero action comedy 'Deadpool', which continued to add on to its already massive total with $10.8 million, down a respectable 35.4% from last weekend, its strongest hold yet. With a stunning $328.1 million already, 'Deadpool' should hold up well one more time next weekend before 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' storms into theaters and steals away most superhero fans for the weekend. Even so, a solid total of $345 million still seems likely. Fellow R-rated action film 'London Has Fallen' had a much steeper, but reasonable, drop from last weekend, falling 50.7% for $10.7 million. In comparison, 'Olympus Has Fallen' declined 53.4% in its second weekend when it had to compete against 'G.I. Joe: Retaliation'. With $38.9 million in the bank so far, 'London' should continue to trail behind its predecessor and ultimately make it over $60 million total.
     Rounding out the Top 5, the $35-million Tina Fey led war comedy 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' held up well coming off last week's underwhelming debut, bringing in $4.6 million (-38.3%). So far, it has made just $14.6 million, and if it manages to maintain legs over the next couple of weeks, $30 million might be in range.
     'The Perfect Match' was widely expected to be the lowest-grossing newcomer this weekend, but ultimately wound up ahead of two of them. The low-budget romantic comedy made $4.2 million from just 925 locations, which means a $4.5k average. This is a bit below expectations and behind 2014's 'Addicted', which opened to $7.5 million from 846 theaters for a $8.8k average. Still, this is a respectable debut, and even more impressive considering the other two wide releases had significantly higher theater counts.
     'Match' opened with $1.6 million on Friday, increased 10.9% on Saturday to take in $1.7 million, and fell a concerning 50.3% on Sunday to make $860k. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a modest 2.63-to-1. A total slightly north of $10 million is likely.
     Following a strong Thursday night gross, 'The Young Messiah' turned out to be pretty front-loaded on Friday and experienced a sharp Saturday drop. The film took in just $3.4 million for a $1.9k per-theater average. Unfortunately, following the decent performance of 'Risen' and the highly-anticipated arrival of next Wednesday's 'Miracles from Heaven', there just wasn't that much the marketing could do to convince faith-based crowds to turn out for this film instead of saving their money for the arguably more anticipated features.
     After opening with $1.4 million on Friday ($455k of which came from Thursday), 'Messiah' decreased a sharp 21.3% on Saturday to gross $1.1 million and balanced out on Sunday with a drop of 15% and earnings of $927k. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is a disappointing 2.43-to-1, which is a figure that you usually wouldn't expect from a Christian-centered movie. Overall, the $18.5-million novel adaptation should experience weaker holding power than usual for a Christian film. It's highly unlikely it makes much more than $10 million.
     In an even worse position was the $35-million Sacha Baron Cohen/Mark Strong led raunchy R-rated spy comedy 'The Brothers Grimsby' downright flopped with just $3.2 million and a $1.4k average. That is easily the worst opening for Cohen in a lead role, opening almost three times less than his previous low 'Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street' ($9.3m). In three days, it failed to make what 'The Dictator' made on its opening day in 2012. It was nearly ten times less than 'Bruno''s opening ($30.6m) and also way down from 'Borat' ($26.5m). Overall, the marketing was just alienating American audiences too much (it was a British-made film) and didn't guarantee strong laughs. The only bright light in 'Grimsby''s marketing campaign was multiple celebrity and audience reactions to an extremely gross-out scene in the film. Otherwise, not much.
     The modestly-budgeted flop made just $1.2 million on Friday, made the exact same amount of Saturday, and decreased 38.6% on Sunday for $740k. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is a decent 2.67-to-1. While reviews (37% on RT) and Flixter audiences (55%) aren't promising impressive staying power, CinemaScore audiences seem to be having a mostly good time ('B+'). Still, $10 million would be predicting too much for it, and even $9 million seems unlikely.
     It seems that audiences just won't give 'Gods of Egypt' a break. The horribly-reviewed, big-budget action fantasy original fell 51.9% and made just $2.5 million. With a terrible $27.3 million in three weeks, it probably won't reach $35 million domestic by the end of its run. Overseas, it's doing a lot better, though it probably won't save it from flopping. 'Gods' benefited from China's $20 million debut, and in all brought in $26.4 million from 73 foreign markets. It's foreign total is now $80.5 million and the worldwide take now $107.8 million.
     'Risen' continued to hold up solidly, dropping 42.4% and making $2.3 million. That hold probably would've been a lot more unimpressive if it weren't for 'Messiah''s poor debut. The $20-million faith-based drama has now gathered $32.4 million and $40 million should still be in reach. 'The Revenant' was close behind with $2 million, down 41.2% from last weekend. That sizable (yet solid) hold shows that the Oscar effect is quickly wearing off (as shown by the film's week-to-week holds). Still, 'Revenant' continues to be a solid performer with $179.1 million so far. $185 million should be a lock for the $135-million Western thriller.
     Rounding out the Top 12, the $140-million animated comedy 'Kung Fu Panda 3' continued to suffer from the competition of 'Zootopia', dropping another steep 53.8% for $1.7 million. It has so far grossed a respectable $136.4 million, and should inch past the $140 million before it disappears from theaters.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend grossed an estimated $120.4 million, down an understandable 18.1% from last weekend and down a slim 0.7% from last year when 'Cinderella' wore the box office crown.
     Next weekend, will see the release of the highly-anticipated faith-based PG-rated film 'Miracles from Heaven', which actually opens this Wednesday and will hope to replicate the breakout success of 2014's 'Heaven is for Real'. Also, the third chapter in 'The Divergent Series', 'Allegiant', will most likely see a sizable decline in ticket sales like all the other YA franchises including 'Hunger Games', 'Percy Jackson', and 'Maze Runner'. 

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