Sunday, March 6, 2016

Weekend Actuals: 'Zootopia' Flourishes with Biggest March Debut for an Animated Film, 'London Has Fallen' in a Nice Second, 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' Fails to Connect with Audiences

     Disney Animation's 'Zootopia' claimed the biggest opening weekend for a film from Walt Disney Animation Studious and for an animated film in March. Meanwhile, the $60-million action sequel 'London Has Fallen' was a very solid runner-up and Tina Fey's latest movie 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' failed to break out like her previous outings.
     In first place was Disney's 'Zootopia', which brought in a strong $75.1 million for a $19.6k per-theater average. That represents the biggest opening weekend for a Walt Disney Animation Studious film (beating 'Frozen''s $67.4m), the biggest March opening for an animated film (besting 'The Lorax''s $70.2m), and the fourth biggest March debut overall (behind only 'The Hunger Games', 'Alice in Wonderland', and 'Oz The Great and Powerful'). Among animal-centered animated offerings, it more than quadruples 'Norm of the North''s $16.9 million total, opened above all three 'Madagascar' movies and almost beat the total of the franchise's spin-off 'Penguins of Madagascar' ($83.4m) in one weekend, and is higher than all three 'Kung Fu Panda' films. Considering that most of those were franchise films, this is a very impressive debut. Overall, this is a great start to this year's slew of animated films, with strong contenders 'The Angry Birds Movie', 'Finding Dory', 'Ice Age: Collision Course', 'Moana', and 'Sing' yet to come this year.
     'Zootopia' started out with $19.5 million on Friday (including $1.7m from Thursday night previews), increased 62.2% on Saturday to take in $31.6 million, and decreased just 24.4% on Sunday to gross $23.9 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a very strong 3.85-to-1, beating 'Frozen' (2.51-to-1) and 'Big Hero 6' (3.56-to-1). Those films wound up with $400.7 million ('Frozen') and $222.5 million ('Big Hero 6'), respectively. While 'Frozen'-like numbers shouldn't be expected, don't be surprised if it ends up surpassing the latter. With phenomenal reviews (99% on RT) and sensational word-of-mouth (96% Flixter score to go along with an 'A' CinemaScore), it should wind up with about $265 million and has potential to go even higher.
     Finishing in second place was the $60-million action sequel 'London Has Fallen', following up to the 2013 surprise hit 'Olympus Has Fallen' ($30.4m opening/$98.9m total). Grossing $21.6 million for a respectable $6.2k average, 'London' performed greatly in line with expectations, which ranged from $19 million to $22 million. Promising more large-scale action and destruction (as sequels tend to do) and showcasing the performances of Gerard Butler (who recovered from last week's flop 'Gods of Egypt'), Aaron Eckhart, and Morgan Freeman, this ultimately looked like solid counter-programming against a family-oriented original, an R-rated superhero hit, and a war comedy. While it is below the $30.4 million that 'Olympus' took in 2013, it was never really expected to make it to that level.
     Opening with $7.5 million on Friday (including $850k from Thursday night showings), 'London' increased 13% on Saturday and made $8.5 million on Saturday and decreased a reasonable 34.4% on Sunday to earn $5.6 million. The ratio here is a respectable 2.88-to-1, which is down from the 3.01-to-1 ratio of 'Olympus' but up from the 2.52-to-1 ratio of 'Terminator Genisys' and the 2.72-to-1 ratio of 'The Expendables 2'. Ultimately, it's unlikely it will hold up as well as its predecessor, especially given that reviews are much weaker (25% on RT), but a similar multiplier to 'A Good Day to Die Hard' and 'White House Down' is very likely. A total of around $59m-$64m is likely.
     Relinquishing the weekend crown to 'Zootopia' after three weeks in the top spot, the $58-million R-rated superhero action comedy 'Deadpool' declined a substantial 46.2% from last weekend and made $16.7 million. On Saturday it crossed the $300-million milestone domestically, becoming the first movie in the 'X-Men' franchise to do so, and has now grossed $311.5 million in just four weeks of play. A grand total of $345 million is very likely as strong word-of-mouth should continue to propel it in the coming weeks.
     In a disappointing fourth, Tina Fey's $35-million war comedy 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' grossed $7.4 million for a so-so $3.1k average. Many were expecting an opening in the range of $10m-$14m, but ultimately it turned out to be a tougher sell than the star's other comedies 'Sisters' and 'Baby Mama' (both of which co-starred Amy Poehler). It failed to reach those films' $13.9 million and $17.4 million openings, but did pass 'Our Brand is Crisis''s $7 million total in one weekend.
     On Friday, 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' grossed $2.4 million on Friday (including around $320k from Thursday), increased a promising 31.9% on Saturday to bring in $3.2 million, and fell 43% for $1.8 million on Sunday. This places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a strong 3.08-to-1, so there is some promise in the long run. However, due to such a small opening, it probably won't make much more than $25 million even if it does hold up well.
     Rounding out the Top 5 was the $140-million action fantasy flop 'Gods of Egypt', which plummeted 63.2% from its already disastrous opening weekend to make a meager $5.2 million. That drop is on par with 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' (-66.4%) and is worse than the 57.4% decline of '300: Rise of an Empire'. With only $23 million in the bank so far, it would be surprising if it managed to cross $35 million.
     The $20-million faith-based drama 'Risen' had one of the best holds among the weekend's holdovers, dropping just 42.7% from last weekend and grossing $3.9 million. 'Risen' has so far made a solid $28.7 million and should finish with around $40 million total. Closely following in seventh, 'Kung Fu Panda 3' grossed $3.6 million, which is off 59.9% from last weekend. That steep decline can be attributed to the arrival of 'Zootopia', which obviously stole away a lot of the family audiences. Still, the $140-million animated comedy has so far taken in a strong $133.9 million and should close with slightly over $140 million.
     Eighth and ninth places were bunched together as well. Coming out on top was 'The Revenant', which benefited greatly from Leo's Oscar win last Sunday, dropping just 13.9% to make $3.4 million. The Oscar effect should stick around for at least one more weekend, so don't be surprised if it experiences another great hold. With $176.1 million already, 'Revenant' should cross $180 million by next weekend and could make it to $190 million total. In ninth was 'Eddie the Eagle', which held up fairly well with $3.1 million, down 48.6% from its opening. However, the $23-million sports dramedy is still running below expectations with just $10.9 million as of today. If it still manages to hold up well in the coming weeks, 'Eddie' could pass $20 million domestically, but that's nothing to be satisfied about.
     Tenth, eleventh, and twelfth all grossed around the same amount this weekend. In tenth was A24's 'The Witch', grossing $2.5 million (-51%) and bringing its cume to $20.9 million. $25 million is a lock at this point. Eleventh belonged to 'Triple 9', which erased all hopes of managing to be critic and audience-proof by falling a terrible 62.9% and making just $2.3 million. With only $10.4 million, the $20-million ensemble led crime thriller should end its run with around $15 million. Finally, rounding out the Top 12 was the $38-million rom-com 'How to Be Single', which made $2.1 million for a 57.7% decline. 'Single' has so far grossed a solid $43.3 million and will attempt to make it past $50 million.
     The Top 12 this weekend grossed $146.9 million, which is up a strong 52.3% from last weekend and a very strong 87.7% from last year when 'Chappie' and 'Unfinished Business' flopped while 'The Second Best Marigold Hotel' found itself with a solid opening.
     Next weekend, 'Zootopia' will go head-to-head with '10 Cloverfield Lane' for the first place position. '10 Cloverfield Lane' looks to have a very strong opening similar to its "blood relative" 'Cloverfield'. Meanwhile, the weekend's other new wide releases 'The Young Messiah' and 'The Brothers Grimsby' will probably end up with below $10 million.
     

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