As with 'Avatar' and 'Titanic', 'Star Wars' dropped to second place on Friday due to another high-profile release, but will likely overtake the weekend box office yet again, albeit less impressively.
After a spectacular run in limited release (a total of $1.6m in two weeks from just four theaters), 'The Revenant' avoided the fates of past expansions such as 'The Hateful Eight' and 'Steve Jobs' with an outstanding $14.4 million. That is on par with the expansion of 2013's 'Lone Survivor' ($14.4m), which it earned on the same weekend in 2014. 'Revenant' benefited from strong reviews (80% on RT), solid word-of-mouth throughout its limited release (87%), and Leonardo DiCaprio's drawing power. However, on CinemaScore, word-of-mouth isn't nearly as good as 'Lone Survivor''s ('Revenant''s 'B+' compared to 'Survivor''s 'A+'). Plus, Thursday night grosses ($2.3m) accounted for 16% of Friday's gross whereas the Thursday take for 'Survivor' was 10.4%. This could probably lead to a more front-loaded weekend for 'Revenant', although it should display healthy legs in the long run. A weekend of around $37 million is very likely for the $135-million Western.
Taking second place for the first time in its release, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' slowed down significantly with $10.8 million, off a whopping 68.7% from New Year's. However, that drop is closer to 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' (-65.3%) than 'Avatar' (-47.5%). From here on out, 'Star Wars' should play like a regular blockbuster instead of a leggy December phenomenon. Still, it became the highest-grossing domestic release of all time not accounting for inflation in the middle of the week, which is no easy feat. The record breaking $781.1 million should turn into over $815 million by the end of the weekend, making 'Star Wars' the first film ever (again, not accounting for inflation) to pass $800 million domestic. If it manages to stabilize over the following weeks, then $900 million is a lock. $40 million is a likely outcome for the weekend, which is less than what 'Avatar' made in its fifth weekend.
Gramercy's $10-million production 'The Forest' scared up a modest $5 million yesterday. While that isn't a bad result, it's not a great one either. It has now become a tradition to release low-budget horror films on the first (or second) weekend of January, but ever since 'The Devil Inside' defied expectations with $33.7 million, the horror films after that declined in opening grosses. 'Forest' will likely continue that trend, falling a few million dollars short of the $15 million opening of last year's 'The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death'. If it plays like that film, 'Forest' will end up with around $10 million. I expect it to fair better than that with an $11.5 million weekend.
Comedy holdovers featuring famous duos occupied fourth and fifth place, respectively. In fourth was 'Daddy's Home' with $4.2 million, down 63.3% from last Friday. It has so far totaled $105.5 million and a weekend of around $14 million is a likely outcome. As for 'Sisters', the $30-million R-rated comedy took in $2.3 million for a 52.7% week-to-week drop and a $70 million cume. $7 million should be in reach.
Weekend Forecast
1. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' - $41 million (-54.5%)
2. 'The Revenant' - $37.2 million (+9,200%)
3. 'Daddy's Home' - $14.6 million (-50%)
4. 'The Forest' - $11.5 million
5. 'Sisters' - $7.4 million (-42.2%)
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