Saturday, January 16, 2016

Friday Report: 'Ride Along' and '13 Hours' Don't Break Out, 'Norm' Flops While 'Revenant' Benefits from Nominations

     Opening two years after the first one broke the January opening record, 'Ride Along 2' played as a typical comedy sequel, dropping off a bit from its predecessor. Nevertheless, it will make a profit considering it cost only $40 million. Meanwhile, Michael Bay's war film '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' debuted modestly while the animated family offering 'Norm of the North' downright bombed.
     In first place, the $40-million comedy sequel 'Ride Along 2' opened to a solid $12 million, which is off 16.7% from the $14.4 million debut of the first 'Ride Along'. When that opened, the film cruised to a new January opening weekend record with $41.5 million and also broke the four-day MLK opening weekend record as well ($48.6m). While it never was expected to match the first one, it at least didn't drop off significantly like recent films ('Ted 2' was off 35.4% on opening day while 'Horrible Bosses 2' was down 37.4%). 'Ride Along' brought in $1.3 million in Thursday night shows, which is slightly higher than the first's but lead to a more front-loaded opening. It has garnered awful reviews so far (15% on RT), although the first got 18% and look how that turned out. If it plays like 'Ted 2' and 'Horrible Bosses 2', it will look at a three-day weekend of around $30 million. However, since 'Ride Along' is PG-13 instead of R, it should be more accessible to more audiences, giving it a slightly higher figure. As for the four-day weekend, the Kevin Hart/Ice Cube led comedy from Universal should have no problem getting over $38 million.
     'The Revenant' fell to second place, although it does have the potential to take the weekend crown if it holds up well. The $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio Western thriller from Fox grossed $9.3 million, down a slim 35.2% from its nationwide expansion. 'Revenant' has been holding up very well throughout the week, and was easily made all the more appealing once it scored 12 Oscar nominations on Thursday. So far, the well-reviewed surprise hit has taken in a solid $67.5 million in 22 days of release (counting its limited run), and should earn about $30 million for the three-day weekend and $36 million for the four-day weekend.
     'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' was bumped down another spot, making $6.3 million and decreasing 41.3% from last week. The $200-million J. J. Abrams directed franchise revival should hold up better than in previous weeks given the fact that it scored 5 Oscar nominations, including one Best Visual Effects (obviously). With a record-breaking $832.2 million in just nearly a month of release, 'Star Wars' is currently looking at $25 million over the three-day weekend while it should earn $33 million in the four-day weekend.
     In fourth place, the $50-million Michael Bay directed war flick '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' debuted below expectations and grossed an estimated $5.9 million. While that's not bad, it's not that great either. Many were expecting a weekend in the range of $18-$22 million for the three-day weekend and $22-$25 million for the four-day. '13 Hours' was down 21.3% from Bay's last non-'Transformers' directorial outing 'Pain and Gain', which had a much stronger cast and marketing campaign. 'Pain' also cost a little more than half of '13 Hours', making it easier to be profitable. It's also noticeably below the likes of 'Lone Survivor' ($14.4m) and 'Zero Dark Thirty ($9m). It also represents a small fraction of 'American Sniper' ($30.3m). It pulled in $900k from Thursday night showings. Reviews aren't as strong as most war films nowadays (59% on RT), but word-of-mouth (as always, regardless of reviews) is very solid with 84% on Flixter and an 'A' on CinemaScore (both on par with previous war films). '13 Hours' should make around $16 million in its first three days and $20 million in its first four.
     In an awful seventh place, the $18-million animated comedy 'Norm of the North' failed to counter-program against the more-appealing family-friendly blockbusters ('Daddy's Home', 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'). Bombing with just $1.6 million yesterday, 'Norm' embarrassingly attempted to recreate the breakout success of 2014's 'The Nut Job' ($19.4m opening/$64.3m total). Horrible reviews won't help either (0% on RT), and word-of-mouth isn't exactly on fire (33% Flixter and 'B-' CinemaScore). Anywhere in the $6-million range for the three-day weekend seems doable, and $8 million in four days is likely.

Weekend Forecast (Three-Day)
1. 'Ride Along 2' - $32.4 million
2. 'The Revenant' - $31.2 million (-21.6%)
3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' - $25.9 million (-38.9%)
4. '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' - $16.8 million
5. 'Daddy's Home' - $9.1 million (-39.3%)
-   'Norm of the North' - $6.4 million
Weekend Forecast (Four-Day)
1. 'Ride Along 2' - $39 million
2. 'The Revenant' - $36.3 million (-6.7%)
3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' - $32.8 million (-22.6%)
4. '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' - $19.8 million
5. 'Daddy's Home' - $12.6 million (-16%)
-   'Norm of the North' - $8.3 million




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