First, the biggest nationwide release is Ridley Scott's sci-fi novel adaptation 'The Martian', costing $108 million and starring Matt Damon. The lead star's most recent film, 'The Monuments Men', was an unexpected hit last year when it opened to $22 million and closed with an impressive $78 million. Reviews and anticipation are also very encouraging, as it has a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score and a +99% Flixter score based on over 40k users, beating last November's 'Interstellar''s reviews (72% on RT), a similar space-based epic with major lead stars and directors involved. 'Martian' also boasts impressive social media activity, with almost 94k total mentions on Twitter over the past three days. However, Facebook activity isn't nearly as enthusiastic as it has 158k likes while 'Interstellar' had 1.2 million fans and 'Gravity' had 607k. However, interest should have definitely sparked up since NASA's latest announcement that they found actual water on Mars, which could prompt moviegoers to check this film out. The marketing is going pretty smoothly as well, with the #BringHimHome and solid ads. Matt Damon's recent box office track record is pretty spotty however, with a couple hits like the previously said 'Monuments Men' and 'We Bought a Zoo' ($75.6m) while others haven't been nearly as successful like 'Green Zone' ($35.1m) and 'Elysium' ($93.1m). Director Ridley Scott has also been struggling, since his most recent films 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' ($65m) and 'The Counselor' ($17m) flopped while 'Prometheus' ($126.5m) and 'Robin Hood' ($105.3m) failed to pass their budgets ('Prometheus' had a $130m budget while 'Robin Hood' had a $200m budget). However, Fandango sales have reportedly been succeeding 'Gravity', hinting at a $55-million+ weekend, which is pretty likely for the sci-fi drama and definitely marking an improvement over 'Interstellar''s $47.5 million opening.
Next, we have the nationwide expansion of Lionsgate's thriller 'Sicario', which has enjoyed especially lucrative incomes from limited release ($2.7m since being released on September 18). 'Sicario' so far has the highest per-theater average of any film in 2015 ($66.9k), and its limited expansion last weekend also posted an excellent average with $29.1k. Reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth have obviously helped as well as respectable Twitter activity (4.8k mentions today). However, not all limited releases translate into very impressive grosses, such as 'Everest''s expansion last weekend. After making good money in its IMAX/PLF locations, many expected a $17m+ weekend gross, but ended up making just $13.2 million. 'Selma' opened to a great $571.5k in 19 locations while it ended up making $11.3 million during its nationwide release. 'Sicario' will likely avoid that fate, as 'Everest' ($13.3k) and 'Selma' ($30.1k) had much lower per-theater averages in their limited release. 'Sicario' will probably end up making over $13 million for the three-day weekend, which would represent a strong nationwide expansion.
Weekend Forecast
1. 'The Martian' - $57.3 million
2. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $30.5 million (-37.2%)
3. 'Sicario' - $13.9 million (+820%)
4. 'The Intern' - $11.6 million (-34.5%)
5. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $7.7 million (-46.2%)
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