Monday, April 4, 2016

Weekend Actuals: 'Batman v Superman' Bleeds but Still Leads While 'God's Not Dead 2' Underwhelms

     With a very unimpressive hold, 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' easily kept the box office crown on its head this weekend as the two new wide releases failed to make much of an impact.
     Retaining first place was the $250-million DC tentpole 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', which crashed in its second outing. The follow-up to the 2013 hit 'Man of Steel' plummeted a steep 69.1% from its record opening to $51.3 million. While that is the 26th biggest second weekend of all time, that drop is a very concerning one. The only comic book movies that have suffered worse drops were 'Steel' (-78%), 'Hellboy II: The Golden Army' (-70.7%), 'Jonah Hex', and 'Hulk' (both -69.7%). It faced a steeper decline than 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' (-59.4%), 'The Dark Knight Rises' (-61.4%), 'Iron Man 3' (-58.4%), 'Man of Steel' (-64.6%), 'X-Men Origins: Wolverine' (-69%), 'Watchmen' (-67.7%), and even the 2015 flop 'Fantastic Four' (-68.2%). Unfortunately, this means that, excluding the built-in fanbase, casual moviegoers are being turned of by the terrible reviews and mixed word-of-mouth. Still, the superhero mashup flick has now generated a muscular $260.4 million in only two weeks, but it will have to stabilize next weekend to make much more than $360 million, which is kind of sad since that would only be a margin between its and 'Deadpool''s gross, which had a much lower profile going into the weekend.
     'Zootopia' held steady in second place, decreasing a slim 19.6% for $19.3 million. That's a spectacular hold, as the $150-million animated original continues to benefit from spectacular reviews, word-of-mouth, and a lack of competition. With $275.3 million in the bank, 'Zootopia' will hold up solidly one more time next week before Disney releases the family-oriented 'The Jungle Book' on April 15 (which is getting very positive reaction from critics so far). Still, it should pass the $300 million mark in the next two weeks, and a total north of $335 million is a guarantee.
     'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' rounded out the unchanged Top 3, grossing $11.2 million and falling a solid 37.2% from its already strong opening. The $18-million rom-com sequel has now grossed an encouraging $36.6 million, and will attempt to hold up well next week when the female-targeting Melissa McCarthy starrer 'The Boss' rolls into theaters. With that said, a total north of $60 million should still be in reach.
     'God's Not Dead 2' was placed in an uneventful fourth place, grossing $7.6 million. The $5-million faith-based sequel to the 2014 sleeper hit failed to build upon the original's fanbase and suffered from a general lack of interest. While reviews probably had only a minor impact on the film's performance, they weren't as good as the previous entry (which already had a terrible 15% RT rating). Word-of-mouth was also much more mixed (just 59% on Flixter), which obviously caused it to be much more front-loaded than the original. What's even more disappointing was that the sequel opened in significantly more locations, but managed to fall below the $9.2 million debut of the original. Still, with its modest price tag in mind, this is anything but a flop. A disappointment, maybe, but not a flop.
     'God's Not Dead 2' opened with $2.9 million on Friday (including $400k from Thursday), fell a concerning 8.1% on Saturday to gross $2.7 million, and dropped another 26% on Sunday to make $2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a middling 2.62-to-1, which is way worse than the 3.29-to-1 ratio of the first one. It's unlikely to retain the 6.61x multiplier its predecessor snagged, and it likely won't even get half of that. In that case, $20 million and up is likely for the faith-based sequel, which would be a solid result for the studio but much less impressive compared to the $60.8 million total of the original.
     Fellow PG-rated faith-based drama 'Miracles from Heaven' continued to hold up well in fifth, dropping just 25.2% and making $7.3 million. The $13-million "based on a true story" film starring Jennifer Garner is likely to continue holding up well thanks to healthy word-of-mouth and the underwhelming debut of 'God's Not Dead 2', and $60 million should be a lock.
     'The Divergent Series: Allegiant' continued its unimpressive run, declining 38.9% and grossing $5.8 million. The $110-million threequel in the YA franchise has so far made just $56.4 million, which is just over what its predecessors did in their opening weekends. Unfortunately, this one should peter out at around $70 million, which is a major step down from the previous entries and puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the final installment next summer.
     Some good news to counter that bad news is that the $15-million sci-fi thriller '10 Cloverfield Lane' held up very nicely, easing 23.2% and making $4.6 million. The Bad Robot success has made a strong $63.4 million in four weeks of play, and might make it over $70 million total, which would put it not far behind the $80-million total of its 2008 predecessor.
     Freestyle's 'Meet the Blacks' posted a decent opening in eighth, grossing $4.1 million from 1,015 locations and earning a higher per-theater average than 'God's Not Dead 2' ($4k vs. $3.2k). While it failed to break out among the disappointing grosses of recent spoofs like 'Fifty Shades of Black' and 'Scary Movie 5', it did manage to come in slightly ahead of expectations, and with its low budget in mind it performed rather solidly.
     'Blacks' grossed $1.4 million on Friday, increased a strong 13.3% on Saturday and grossed $1.6 million, and fell 37.2% and made $1 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a strong 2.93-to-1, which is ironically better than the other new wide opener this weekend. However, reviews and word-of-mouth are scathing (17% on RT and 29% on Flixter), so the chances of this holding up well are slim. Still, it should do better than the multipliers of 'Fifty Shades' and 'Scary Movie', which will get it to at least $10 million total.
     'Eye in the Sky' followed closely in ninth with $4 million, up a very strong 324.9% from last weekend. The military drone thriller starring Helen Mirren expanded into 1,029 locations this weekend and was met with promising results. With universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike, 'Eye in the Sky' should continue to hold up well and expand in the coming weeks as it has now totaled a very respectable $6.1 million.
     The Top 12 this weekend gathered $122.8 million, down a sharp 49.9% from last weekend most likely because of the steep drop last week's and this week's champion experienced. It was also down a sizable 43.6% from last year when 'Furious 7' exploded to the top spot with a then record Easter opening.
     Next weekend features the likes of the aforementioned 'The Boss', which will attempt to replicate the success of McCarthy's previous outings, and STX's 'Hardcore Henry', which uniquely brings the first-person perspective recognizable in shooters like 'Call of Duty' and 'Halo' to the big screen for the first time. In limited release are the Jake Gyllenhaal led 'Demolition' and Anna Kendrick/Sam Rockwell led 'Mr. Right'.

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