Saturday, April 2, 2016

Monthly Forecast: April 2016

After March's strong performers like 'Zootopia', '10 Cloverfield Lane', and of course 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', April looks to be a bit quieter, but with promising contenders like 'The Boss', 'Hardcore Henry', 'The Jungle Book', and 'Keanu', it should still find itself in the Top 10 April grosses of all time. I'm excluding 'God's Not Dead 2' and 'Meet the Blacks' since Friday figures came in yesterday, which I will write about in a separate article today.

The Boss

This should kick off April's slew of potential blockbusters. Melissa McCarthy is a very powerful draw at the box office. Ever since the breakout success of 2011's 'Bridesmaids', McCarthy has starred in numerous original hits like 'Identity Thief' ($134.5m), 'The Heat' ($159.6m), and 'Spy' ($110.8m). Even when her films don't reach $100 million domestically, studios shouldn't be shedding tears over the $84.5 million total of 2014's 'Tammy'. What's even more eye-popping is that none of those films have opened to more than $40 million, which means that McCarthy's films generally pertain excellent holding power throughout their runs thanks to (usually) strong reviews and (almost certainly) healthy word-of-mouth. Kristen Bell, Peter Dinklage, and Kathy Bates should also provide some starpower to appeal to their own respective fanbases. However, although all of her post-'Bridesmaids' films have been successful, a steady decline in grosses is also notable. The aforementioned 'Spy' and 'Tammy' failed to make as much of an impact as 'Heat' and 'Identity Thief', which may be a sign of McCarthy's fading drawing power. However, it's hard to think that this will be totally worthless, and an opening and total above $15 million and $50 million is pretty much a guarantee.
Predicted Opening: $17 million
Predicted Total: $63 million

Hardcore Henry

Predicting the grosses for this one is going to be tough. I mean, there isn't anything like it. 'Hardcore Henry' is the first theatrical film that utilizes the first-person perspective for an entire movie. Buzz for this film is pretty encouraging, with a decent +95% want-to-see rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It also earned 13.2 million views on STX Entertainment's YouTube channel, with a 30-to-1 like-to-dislike ratio. Gamers could also be interested in putting down the controller and going to the movies because of the said first-person perspective, which seems as if it will appeal to that kind of audience specifically. Reviews are also pretty positive with an 89% rating on RT, although the average rating is a concerning 6.1/10. Casual audiences might also think that this will just be too annoying and uncomfortable to sit through in a big movie theater, so they might want to sit out on this. However, STX has only had one miss ('Secret in their Eyes'), and 'Hardcore' should join the likes of 'The Gift' and 'The Boy' as the growing library of hits belonging to STX.
Predicted Opening: $11.5 million
Predicted Total: $29.5 million

Barbershop: The Next Cut

No one's really expecting much from the threequel in the once-popular 'Barbershop' franchise. The first two did very well, exceeding expectations everywhere. The first one in 2002 opened with an excellent $20.6 million, held up well, and finished with $75.8 million. The second was a bit less leggy, but was a strong opener nevertheless with $24.2 million and a grand total of $65.1 million. And it only gets better from there when you take into account ticket price inflation. The cast is pretty stacked, which gives it a lot of appeal. Ice Cube has built up an even greater following in recent years thanks to 'Ride Along' and 'Straight Outta Compton', Cedric the Entertainer keeps his reputation alive thanks to the hit sitcom 'The Soul Man', Regina Hall is recognizable from the 'Scary Movie' franchise, Anthony Anderson and Deon Cole star in the popular sitcom 'Black-ish', and Eve, Nicki Minaj, and Common are draws for the obvious reasons. However, long-awaited comedy sequels don't necessarily translate into bigger grosses. For example, 'Dumb and Dumber To' ended its run with a solid $86.2 million, but fell below the $127.2 million total of the 1994 original. 'Zoolander 2' did worse, failing to reach even the $15.5 million debut of its 2001 predecessor, and inflation only makes it more laughable. Ultimately, while it won't be an outright bomb, I just don't see it climbing too high both in opening grosses and closing grosses.
Predicted Opening: $14 million
Predicted Total: $34 million

Criminal

Coming off the poorly received 'Self/Less', studios want to see if audiences still care for star-studded action movies featuring someone's conscious getting put into someone else's body. This one arguably has more starpower, as not only does it have 'Self/Less' star Ryan Reynolds (who also redeemed himself with 'Deadpool'), Kevin Costner, Gary Oldman, Tommy Lee Jones, and the new Wonder Woman Gal Gadot make major appearances in the movie as well. The premise is definitely intriguing (CIA operative's memories transferred to a dangerous criminal to recover important details), so casual moviegoers might at least read up on it. However, Costner isn't the draw he was back then, and has failed to bring any break-out hits these past couple years. The same goes for the rest of the cast members, as 'Paranoia' (Oldman), 'The Family' (Jones), and 'Triple 9' (Gadot) have all underwhelmed or bombed. Still, this should outdo all of those on opening weekend, and could even pass the totals of 'Paranoia' and 'Triple 9' in one weekend.
Predicted Opening: $13 million
Predicted Total: $34.5 million

The Jungle Book

It looks like Disney has another hit on its hands. The latest in the franchise of live-action remakes of the studio's popular animated tales, the long-awaited adaptation of 'The Jungle Book' will most likely make an interesting entrance when it opens on April 15. Disney has had huge successes with past live-action remakes, kicking things off with 'Alice in Wonderland' (whose sequel opens this May), which blew away expectations and grossed an outstanding $116.1 million and finished it off with $334.2 million, becoming Disney's tenth highest-grossing film domestically. 2014's 'Maleficent' followed, as the Angelina Jolie starrer also demolished expectations and earned $69.4 million, topping out at an impressive $241.4 million. 'Cinderella' is the latest hit, opening on the first weekend of March 2015 with $67.9 million and closing with $201.2 million. It also helps that the original 'Jungle Book' is one of Disney's highest-grossing animated classics ever with $141.8 million (including $68.1m from two re-issues in 1984 and 1990). Adjusted for inflation, it ranks 32nd with a whopping $641 million. Although it doesn't actually show the actors, the voice cast is very impressive, with Scarlett Johansson (the Marvel Cinematic Universe), Idris Elba ('Thor' franchise), Lupita Nyong'o ('Star Wars: The Force Awakens'), Ben Kingsley ('Gandhi', 'Shutter Island'), Christopher Walken ('The Deer Hunter'), and Bill Murray ('Ghostbusters'). One worrying factor though is the declining grosses of each remake. 'Maleficent' came in 27.8% below 'Alice', and 'Cinderella' fell 16.7% off of the former. One major concern is that 'Jungle Book' will continue the declining grosses. It opens just one week from fellow big-budget fantasy 'The Hunstman: Winter's War', and will have to compete for family audiences with 'Captain America: Civil War' and 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' in May, which will most likely hurt its staying power. It's likely that the film will subvert these cons and become a very strong performer throughout its run, and has the potential to pass 'Cinderella' and put an end to the streak of declining grosses.
Predicted Opening: $70 million
Predicted Total: $235 million 

Elvis & Nixon

This should make a much more modest impact on the box office. The cast looks great, with Michael Shannon ('Man of Steel', 'Midnight Special') and Kevin Spacey ('Se7en', 'American Beauty') in the titular roles with promising co-stars Alex Pettyfer ('Magic Mike'), Johnny Knoxville ('Bad Grandpa'), Colin Hanks (sitcom 'Life in Pieces'), Evan Peters ('X-Men: Apocalypse'), and Ashley Benson ('Spring Breakers'). However, the director isn't well-known, and its R-rating could restrict younger audiences who are interested in the topic from seeing it. The 70's setting doesn't help either, as old-timey films have struggled to attract audiences recently ('Hail, Caesar!', 'The Finest Hours'). Awareness is pretty low, as only 500 users have voted on the want-to-see poll on Rotten Tomatoes, and even then only 88% want to go out and watch this. Overall, this just doesn't look like it will do too well, and as a result I have low expectations.
Predicted Opening: $5.5 million
Predicted Total: $19 million

The Huntsman: Winter's War

This big-budget prequel/sequel/spin-off to the 2012 hit 'Snow White and the Huntsman' has low prospects, most likely because it just doesn't look that appealing. Despite the admirable cast, 'Huntsman' seems like a generic fantasy movie with tons of CGI and lots of fast-paced action. The absence of Kristen Stewart will likely turn off younger fans, and it opens just one week after the highly-anticipated 'The Jungle Book' and two weeks before the mega-blockbuster 'Captain America: Civil War'. While it shouldn't make too much of a dent in its performance, its similarity to 'Frozen' could make the film come across as more childish and immature than the dark brooding film Universal wants it to be. Sure, maybe the older fans of the animated hit might turn up, but besides them and the original's fanbase, reaching out to moviegoers is going to be pretty tough considering that there are many other more better-looking films out there.
Predicted Opening: $23.5 million
Predicted Total: $58 million

Keanu

Based on the comedy of funnymen and Comedy Central stars Key & Peele, 'Keanu' brings the duo to the big screen for the first time, tasking them with taking back a kidnapped famous kitten. Both the stars and the premise should be enough to draw in some curious moviegoers and a notable portion of their fanbase, and the marketing so far is trying to reach out to just those kinds of people. After so many raunchy comedies about hangovers are starring Seth Rogen, this one looks like a breath of fresh air given that this premise has basically been unheard of. Cats also somehow have a way with creating a lot of buzz on social media, and a major movie that centers around one will definitely become a conversation topic in the weeks to come. However, although they may have a large fanbase, Key & Peele are literally unproven box office draws. They may have made cameos here and there, but it would be unreasonable to think audiences spent money on a movie ticket just to see a couple seconds of their favorite comedians in the theater. The amount of competition is also a bit worrying, as it opens two weeks after 'Barbershop: The Next Cut' and just one week before 80% of audiences will be occupied with 'Captain America: Civil War'. While that could hurt its holding power, it shouldn't translate into a horrible opening weekend, which in turn could lead to a profitable run.
Predicted Opening: $21 million
Predicted Total: $51.5 million

Mother's Day

Ever heard of Garry Marshall? He's the guy who brought you holiday-themed romantic comedies 'Valentine's Day' and 'New Year's Eve', both received very negatively by audiences and critics alike. The former holds an 18% RT critics rating and a 47% Flixter score while the latter has just 7% on RT and 45% on Flixter. Not to mention that, although 'Valentine's Day' performed very strongly, 'New Year's Eve' fell of significantly from its "predecessor's" gross. 'Valentine's Day' made more in one weekend what 'New Year's' did in its entire run! Just like those films, it boasts a very impressive lineup of stars, including Jennifer Aniston, Kate Hudson, Julia Roberts, and Jason Sudeikis. Unfortunately, that doesn't necessarily mean the film's going to be an outright blockbuster. Aniston's recent track record is pretty inconsistent, Kate Hudson isn't a proven draw at the box office, Roberts hasn't starred in a movie that's grossed over $80 million since 2010, and Sudeikis is also pretty hit and miss. Overall, don't be surprised if it ends up opening lower than $15 million, but it admittedly does have potential to be quite leggy in the long run.
Predicted Opening: $11 million
Predicted Total: $36 million

Ratchet & Clank

Based on a long-running video game franchise that hasn't had a new entry in nearly three years, showing off an impressive voice cast, marketed with lots of cheesy taglines and jokes, riddled with low anticipation and mixed expectations, and overall positive reception from the trailers, this looks like it will do modestly. Not good, not bad. Just modestly. While there may still be fans of the series, the aforementioned latest installment came out in November 2013, and only now a movie's coming out? The voice cast shouldn't be looked over though, with stand-outs such as Rosario Dawson, Paul Giamatti, John Goodman, Sylvester Stallone, and Bella Thorne. The marketing is pretty cheesy, which will definitely entice kids to see it but will ultimately make the adults make the final decision. If you look on the forum on Rotten Tomatoes, expectations aren't great, but aren't terrible either. Plus, a +92% want-to-see rating is a bit low, although this is arguably one of the more low-profile films coming out this month. The reception to the trailers was overwhelmingly positive however, so it has that going for it. Just expect this film to do decent at the box office. No opening over $10 million or under $5 million would be reasonable, and a total of no more than $30 million and no less than  $10 million would also be plausible.
Predicted Opening: $8.5 million
Predicted Total: $23.5 million

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