Weekend Actuals: 'TMNT 2' Underwhelms, 'Me Before You' Captures Audiences' Hearts and 'Popstar' Bombs

     It was a slow weekend at the box office, with 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' quietly taking first from the disappointing 'X-Men: Apocalypse'. One of the other new wide releases, 'Me Before You', performed exceptionally well amidst all the competition while 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' stalled out.

     In the number one position, $135-million action sequel kid pic 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' grossed $35.32 million for an $8.7k per-theater average. That is 46.1% lower than its 2014 predecessor's $65.6 million debut in August (when movies usually have more muted grosses than in June) and 49.1% down from its per-theater average. Although it was essentially guaranteed that the sequel would never match its predecessor's opening, nobody expected this kind of opening until right before release (ranging from $25m-$40m). While reviews are a slight improvement over the first's, they still weren't convincing enough to get many audiences out to see the film. Add in some unimpressive marketing and promising more of the same but on a bigger scale (pretty much what all action sequels do), and this just wasn't appealing enough to help the franchise break out once more.

     Opening on Friday with $12.48 million ($2m from Thursday), 'Shadows' rose 4.3% on Saturday to gross $13.02 million and fell 24.7% on Sunday to make $9.81 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.83-to-1, which is at least an improvement over the 2.56-to-1 ratio of its predecessor. Still, word-of-mouth isn't anything special with a 61% Flixter score (around where the first was at after opening weekend), though CinemaScore audiences were more forgiving ('A-' compared to the first's 'B'). It's unlikely it will hit $100 million, and $90 million would probably even be a stretch. A total near that number such as over/under $85 million is more likely. Overseas, 'Shadows' brought in $33 million, which is a slight improvement over the first's $29 million back in August 2014. It then snagged a 10.4x multiplier for a strong $302.1 million overseas cume. While it's unlikely to match that number given that sequels are usually more frontloaded than their predecessors, 'Shadows' will probably make up its domestic shortcomings with its foreign numbers. Top markets included the UK ($5.3m), Russia ($4.8m), Indonesia ($2.3m), and Malaysia ($2.2m). Expect a foreign total well over $200 million and a possible $400 million and up global take.
     Coming off of a disappointing opening weekend, 'X-Men: Apocalypse' continued to perform below expectations with a sharp 65.3% drop and $22.83 million weekend take. That is worse than the 64.2% drop of 'X-Men: Days of Future Past' as well as its $32.55 million gross. So far, the $178-million ensemble-led superhero blockbuster has totaled an uneventful $117 million in two weeks of play. It now looks to finish with around $160 million, which looks even more shameful given that that's only a little better than what the very first 'X-Men' did back in 2000 ($157.3m), and that's unadjusted for inflation. That would also mean it would only be better than the adjusted gross of 'X-Men: First Class' ($156.03m), which was a much riskier bet back in its time of release. At least it's doing exceptional overseas, grossing $84.4 million (+52.2%) for a $284.45 million overseas gross and $401.45 million worldwide. China attributed to the majority of that figure, with 'Apocalypse' raking in $59 million from that territory. Other notable countries are the UK ($23m), Korea ($18m), Mexico ($17m), Brazil ($15.9m), France ($12.9m), and Russia ($10.3m). A final worldwide gross of at least $500 million is likely at this point.
     The $20-million romantic drama based upon the popular novel of the same name 'Me Before You' got off to a very strong third place start, grossing $18.72 million for a $6.9k average. While it would be unfair to say that 100% of the film's success came from star Emilia Clarke, she most likely did have a positive impact on the film's performance since she has made a name for herself on HBO's 'Game of Thrones', one of the most successful television shows in recent memory. Add that with the fanbase of the novel and the long period of time since a female-targeting wide release, you have a recipe for success.

     'Me Before You' debuted with $7.78 million on Friday (including $1.365m from Thursday night previews), fell 20.3% on Saturday to earn $6.2 million, and fell another 23.5% on Sunday for $4.74 million. The ratio is  2.41-to-1, which is better than 'If I Stay' (2.3-to-1) and 'Paper Towns' (2-to-1) though it is behind the 2.66-to-1 ratio of last year's 'The Age of Adaline', though that film opened in April opposed to the summer releases of this film, 'Stay', and 'Towns'. Reviews are middling (55% on Rotten Tomatoes), which is normal for the romance genre, but word-of-mouth is dazzling (84% Flixter rating and 'A' CinemaScore) and stronger than the three previously mentioned comparisons (which were in the range of 48%-67%). A multiplier of at least 3.5x is likely, which would result in a domestic cume of at least $65 million, and while $90 million might be a stretch $80 million could be in reach. Overseas, it debuted to a solid $8.2 million.
     Disney's $170-million fantasy misfire 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' didn't hold up nearly as well as the studio's previous fantasy tales, plummeting 57.9% and grossing $11.31 million, adding up to a very underwhelming $51.4 million total in two weeks. The second weekend gross and drop is below that of its predecessor ($62.71m/-46%), 'Oz the Great and Powerful' ($41.25m/-47.9%), 'Maleficent' ($34.33m/-50.6%), 'Cinderella' ($34.97m/-48.5%), and 'The Jungle Book' ($61.54m/-40.4%), all of which opened with much bigger numbers. Unfortunately, it now looks as if it will struggle to hit the $85 million mark that 'Alice in Wonderland' surpassed in just two days. It now looks as if it can even fail to hit $80 million. Overseas, the fantasy fell 52.4% for $30.9 million as it continues to perform much stronger overseas than domestic. However, foreign territories are also lagging behind the performance of the first 'Alice'. With $125 million overseas and $176.4 million worldwide, 'Looking Glass' will ultimately try to push past the $400 million global mark, which is a major comedown from the $1.025 billion worldwide cume of the first. It also has no chance to meet that film's $691.28 million foreign gross. Instead, $215 million is more likely.

     Rounding out the Top 5, Sony's $73-million animated video game adaptation 'The Angry Birds Movie' fell 45.6% in its third weekend for $10.21 million. So far, the mixed-reviewed film has now amassed $87.12 million and should pass $100 million by next week or at least get close to it. It will pass the $90.76 million total of 'Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time' sometime this week to become the second highest-grossing video game adaptation of all time (domestically) behind 'Lara Croft: Tomb Raider' ($131.17m), which it now has a slim chance at besting. Still, a solid total of around $120 million is a lock. Overseas, 'Angry Birds' scored another $31.8 million for a new overseas cume of $196.79 million and worldwide gross of $283.91 million. Top countries include China ($49m), Russia ($10.7m), Germany ($8.5m), the UK ($8.4m), Brazil ($6.4m), and Mexico ($6.1m). Worldwide, it's the third highest-grossing video game movie after 'Prince of Persia' ($336.37m) and 'Resident Evil: Afterlife' ($296.22m), but at this rate it will probably end up with over $360 million making it the biggest video game adaptation of all time worldwide.
     'Captain America: Civil War' continued to reaffirm its position as the highest-grossing 2016 release both domestically and worldwide, dropping 49.1% for $7.83 million. Its $389.18 million domestic cume is the 23rd biggest, behind 'Frozen' ($400.74m), 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' ($402.11m), 'Jurassic Park' ($402.45m), 'Spider-Man' ($403.71m), 'The Hunger Games' ($408.01m), 'Iron Man 3' ($409.01m), and 'Toy Story 3' ($415m), all of which it should surpass in the coming weeks. $420 million should still be in reach. Its overseas gross is now $742.9 million, raising its global cume to $1.132 billion, making it the twelfth biggest movie worldwide behind 'Minions' ($1.159b) and 'Iron Man 3' ($1.215b) and should wind up in between the two.

     'Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising' followed suit in seventh place, dropping 48% to gross $4.86 million and for a new $48.72 million, which is a bit behind what the first 'Neighbors' opened with. 'Sorority Rising' is now looking for a disappointing $60 million finish, which 'Neighbors' passed in six days of release. Overseas, the R-rated comedy sequel has grossed $40.76 million and $89.49 million worldwide, setting its sights on a worldwide total of over $110 million (and that's just being hopeful), which is a big step down from the $270.67 million worldwide gross of the original.
     Debuting in a very disappointing seventh, Universal's $21-million musical mockumentary/comedy 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' failed to translate great reviews into an encouraging opening, making just $4.7 million for a measly $2k average. That is only $66k better than 2010's SNL comedy 'MacGruber', which eked out only $4.04 million. Reviews and word-of-mouth are pretty decent (both scores are over 75%), but that probably won't help the film hold up well in the long run. Don't be surprised if it fails to hit $10 million total.

     The Top 12 overall grossed a so-so $127.7 million, down 19.6% from last weekend but up 2.2% from when 'Spy' led the box office before 'Jurassic World' blew everything up. Next weekend sees the release of not one, but two sequels as well as another video game adaptation. I'm not expecting a breakout performance from any of them as it's very likely the summer tentpoles will cannibalize on each other by fighting over older male audiences all at the same time. The film's are the modestly-budgeted and well-reviewed horror sequel 'The Conjuring 2' (which arguably has the most potential of the three), the divisively-reviewed magician/caper sequel to the 2013 surprise hit 'Now You See Me' called the same thing but with a "2" slapped at the end (which will probably end up in the high-teens to mid-twenties for the weekend), and the big-budget poorly-reviewed adaptation of the popular video game series 'Warcraft' (which will struggle to break the $20m mark for the weekend). There is still hope for June though, as 'Finding Dory', 'Central Intelligence', and 'Independence Day: Resurgence' still have time to hit theaters, but that's for a later post.