Friday Report: 'TMNT 2' Modest While 'Me Before You' Performs Strongly

     Easily taking first place at the box office yesterday was Paramount's $135-million action sequel 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows', which reeled in $12.5 million. That is slightly above expectations as going into the weekend they began to drop below $30 million. While it is ahead of projections, 'Shadows' fell 51.2% from the $25.6 million take of its predecessor. This is the fourteenth time this year that a sequel has opened below its predecessor, and it's likely to continue throughout the rest of the summer (albeit a few exceptions like 'Finding Dory' and 'Jason Bourne'). If it plays like its predecessor it will end the weekend with less than $32 million. With slightly stronger reviews and word-of-mouth, I'm going to predict it will hold up a bit better through the weekend but its performance in the long run is still debatable. A $34 million opening is likely for the big-budget kid pic.

      In a very respectable second place was the $20-million romantic drama 'Me Before You', which is based upon the popular novel of the same novel and garnering $7.75 million. That is above the last three Nicholas Sparks films, last July's 'Paper Towns', and 2014's 'If I Stay'. This is a very solid result as the popularity of the book has obviously translated into solid figures. Strong word-of-mouth should propel the film to a weekend over $18 million and it could even top $20 million if it's lucky enough.
     In third place, 'X-Men: Apocalypse' continued to fall below expectations significantly with $6.55 million, down 75.1% from opening day. That drop is a bit worse than 'X-Men: Days of Future Past''s 73.5% decline and way off from 'X-Men: First Class''s 64.8% drop. It is also weaker than 'Captain America: Civil War' (-74%) but not quite as bad as 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' (-81.6%). So far, the $178-million franchise outing has grossed a disappointing $100.7 million. If it plays like 'Days', the second weekend total would be at $22.5 million. Given that word-of-mouth and reviews are a lot weeker this time around, a weekend around $21 million would be more likely.
     'Alice Through the Looking Glass' placed fourth with $3.155 million, down a troubling 67.5% from opening day and raising its cume to an uneventful $43.2 million. That drop is worse than its predecessor's (-57.6%), 'Oz the Great and Powerful' (-52.8%), 'Maleficent' (-58.1%), 'Cinderella' (-58.8%), and 'The Jungle Book' (-48.6%). Terrible reviews and mixed word-of-mouth are taking a toll on 'Alice''s performance as well as an overstuffed marketplace and Johnny Depp's fading starpower. In fact, it's more on par with 'Thor: The Dark World' (-67%) and 'Clash of the Titans' (-68%), which are much less family-friendly and a lot more violent. A weekend around $10.5 million or $11 million is likely.
     Rounding out the Top 5, 'The Angry Birds Movie' dropped 48.5% to gross $2.6 million. The $73-million animated video game adaptation has now made $79.5 million and will probably pass $85 million this weekend. $10 million should be a lock.
     In a disappointing seventh, the $21-million musical mockumentary/satire 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' made a paltry $1.77 million. That is only a bit better than the $1.57 million 'MacGruber' pulled in. If it goes a similar pattern, 'Popstar' will gross $4.5 million in its weekend, a likely result.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' - $34.6 million

2. 'X-Men: Apocalypse' - $21.3 million (-67.6%)

3. 'Me Before You' - $19.5 million

4. 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' - $10.7 million (-60.2%)

5. 'The Angry Birds Movie' - $10.1 million (-46.3%)

-- 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' - $4.6 million