Opening in an estimated 3,900 locations, the most anticipated movie of all time, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' debuts on December 18. Many are saying it will easily take the opening weekend record from 'Jurassic World' ($208.8m), which was only the second film to open over $200 million, after 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($207.4m). Projections are going as high as $230 million, while other predictions are in the $185m-$215m range. Either way, it will have one the biggest openings of all time, and the biggest December debut on record (easily shattering 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey''s $84.6m debut). Costing $200 million to produce, the long-awaited sequel to the beloved original trilogy ($1.01b combined) has very few factors working against it, and a whole lot of factors working for it. Let's take a look at them now, shall we?
First off, the hype is pretty much unparalleled. Twitter activity is through the roof, with 647,908 tweets just from today alone. It also boasts an impressive 15.7 million likes on Facebook, which is slightly more than what 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' had at the end of July (14.3m) and double the amount 'Jurassic World' has (7.5m). 'Star Wars' has also experienced a phenomenal number of viewers for their trailers, with an astonishing 75.4 million views for the first one, 72.4 million for the second, and 72.6 million for the third. The previews have also received very positive feedback from the viewers, which increases the hype by a lot. Not to mention a stellar +99% want-to-see rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is on par with what 'Avengers' and 'Jurassic World' had at the same point in the days leading up to their release. Speaking of Rotten Tomatoes, 'Star Wars' currently boasts a stellar 94% rating on that website, which is generally in the same level as former record-breaker 'The Dark Knight' (94%) and 'Marvel's The Avengers' (92%) as well as the first two 'Star Wars' films (both 94%). It is miles ahead of 'Jurassic World' (71%) and 'Age of Ultron' (75%). All those films had huge openings in their respective time periods, and this installment is determined to surpass those numbers.
Another factor is that pretty much every single brand is sponsoring the film. From Covergirl and Lego to coffee mugs and bobbleheads, the 'Star Wars' name is everywhere, letting people of all ages know that the biggest movie event in history is about to come out. It has opened up to many different people, and has overall met great satisfaction from them (all of the originals have 95%+ audience scores on RT, and all have 8.4+ ratings on IMDb). Plus, most of the original cast members are returning (Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, etc.), and all have become more famous then when the first movie came out. The films 'Anchorman 2' ($127.4m) and '42' ($95m) have kept Ford in the business while the critically acclaimed superhero TV series 'The Flash' has special guest appearances from Hamill as the fan-favorite Trickster. With an amazing cast, near-perfect RT score, and out-of-this-world hype, why wouldn't anyone want to see this?
Maybe the fact that the prequels exist could turn off some viewers. Although they made it big time back when they were released ($431.1m for 'Phantom Menace', $302.2m for 'Attack of the Clones', and $380.3m for 'Revenge of the Sith'), they aren't really remembered in a good way. The highest audience score in the prequel trilogy is the 65% rating of 'Revenge of the Sith'. 'Attack of the Clones' even ventured into "rotten" territory, with a 59% audience satisfaction rating. Long story short, the prequels were received pretty negatively, and at the most very mixed. However, since 'The Force Awakens' promises to be a sequel to the originals, this should only be a small factor. Ultimately, it shouldn't be too unreasonable to expect $225m+ for its three-day take.
Next up (sorry I went on and on about 'Star Wars', so I'm just going to make this quick), Universal's raunchy R-rated comedy 'Sisters' reunites Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. The last time they starred in a film together was the 2008 hit 'Baby Mama', which opened to $17.4 million and ended with $60.5 million. It could benefit from the fact that 'Star Wars' will possibly attract more male moviegoers then female, leaving the latter to consider watching this film the weekend before Christmas. Reviews are on par with past comedies such as 'The Hangover' (79% on RT) and are better than the first 'Ted' (67% on RT) with a 78% critics score.The only major drawback is that the marketing isn't really pushing it, with only a few ads seen. Still, this was the case with 'The Night Before', and although that opened below expectations it still eked out a solid debut. I expect 'Sisters' to do a bit better than that film's $9.9 million debut, with $10m-$12m in the range of possibilities.
Weekend Forecast
1. 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' - $227.3 million
2. 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' - $11.9 million
3. 'Sisters' - $11.5 million
4. 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' - $5.8 million (-49.6%)
5. 'The Good Dinosaur' - $5.8 million (-48.7%)
Great reviews!
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