Friday, December 18, 2015

Thursday Report: 'Star Wars' Shoots Down Record for Thursday Night Showings

     Even though it just came out last night, 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' easily took down 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2' for the biggest Thursday night launch ever. The latter grossed $43.5 million back in 2011 while the former made a huge $57 million. However, 'Deathly Hallows' debuted at midnight, while the earliest showings for 'Star Wars' were at 7 p.m., making it hard to compare these two films. Still, 'Star Wars' is on track to have the biggest opening day launch in cinematic history, and should be the first film to have a $100m+ opening in just one day. That would also break the record for the fastest time a movie breaks $100 million, surpassing 'Jurassic World''s record (2 days). 'Jurassic World' opened to $18.5 million while 'Marvel's The Avengers' had $18.7 million (both former record holders). Those movies had $82 million (JW) and $80.8 million (MTA) opening days, respectively. If 'Star Wars' can follow the patterns of those films, it will wind up with a staggering $245m-$250m opening day. That is a VERY outlandish prediction, and with much bigger grosses 'Star Wars' should be a little more front-loaded than those two. A (slightly) more reasonable projection is an 'Avengers: Age of Ultron'-type of multiplier, which would get it at a still overwhelming $175 million. Unfortunately, 'Star Wars' will have to settle for a 'Harry Potter'-like multiplier, nabbing a mere $120 million opening. That is still a very good opening, and should stabilize over the weekend. I'll get to weekend predictions after Friday estimates show up, but for now, just expect a $235m+ opening weekend.

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