Saturday, December 26, 2015

Friday Report: 'Star Wars' Still Breaking Records While New Releases Overperform

     On what is going to be the biggest Christmas weekend of all time and maybe the biggest weekend overall, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' continues its record-breaking run with a massive second weekend as pretty much all the new releases exceeded expectations.
     In first place, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' fell 58.6% from opening day (although if you adjust it to Friday "proper", it's only off 20.6%) to gross $49.3 million, beating 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' for the biggest non-opening Friday ever. The $200-million J. J. Abrams directed sci-fi fell a lot harder than 'Avatar' (down only 13.7%), but is better than the holds of 'Marvel's The Avengers' (-63.8%) and 'Jurassic World' (-64.5%). The cume currently stands at a whopping $440.4 million, breaking the record for the fastest time a film passes $400 million domestic. 'Star Wars' should hold up similar to 'Avatar' going through the weekend (mainly because Christmas fell on a Friday in 2009), which would lead to a record-breaking $160 million second weekend performance and the record for the fastest time $500 million is made domestically.
     In a very strong second place, the $50-million comedy led by Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg 'Daddy's Home' made a surprising $15.7 million. That is a bit more than the $13.1 million take of 'The Other Guys', another Ferrell/Wahlberg cinematic team-up. It is also much stronger than 'Parental Guidance', actually making more than that film did in its opening weekend. 'Daddy's Home' should make around $45 million in its opening weekend, blowing away pre-release expectations ($14.5m-$22m).
     Following that was another strong opening in third, this time belonging to the Jennifer Lawrence led 'Joy', the new $60-million David O. Russel led comedy-drama. 'Joy' debuted to a stronger-than-expected $6.9 million. Its opening is a bit stronger than 'American Hustle' and way more than the opening of 'Silver Linings Playbook'. The solid performance of this film proves that even with middling reviews (58% on Rotten Tomatoes), a strong cast can still get a movie to do well. Expect a weekend of around $20 million.
     'Sisters' claimed fourth with a strong $4.7 million, down only 6.2%. With solid word-of-mouth and strong holding power thus far, a $15 million weekend isn't too out of reach.
     'Concussion', the $35-million Will Smith led football drama, performed slightly ahead of expectations with a solid $4.3 million. Even though reviews aren't that great (60% on RT), word-of-mouth is pretty solid ('A' CinemaScore and 73% Flixter score). This represents a pretty solid comeback for star Will Smith, who stumbled with films like 'Focus' ($53.9m) and 'After Earth' ($60.5m). 'Concussion' should reach $12.5 million in its first three days.
     The $105-million action remake 'Point Break' flopped with only $4.1 million, although that is above expectations. 'Point Break' is doing pretty well overseas ($43.2m in four weeks of release), but that success failed to translate into anything notable in the U.S. A $12 million weekend is a likely outcome, which would be slightly ahead of its $9.5m-$10m predictions.
     Right behind it was 'The Big Short', which followed up its strong limited release with a solid $3.8 million. The $28-million comedy drama so far boasts a total of $9.3 million, $4 million of which came from its Wednesday and Thursday grosses from when it began its nationwide expansion. $11.5 million should be a lock.
     'The Hateful Eight' managed to get so many Tarantino fans to turn out this weekend that it actually found a spot in the Top 10. The $44-million R-rated western made $1.9 million from 100 locations. $5.5 million should be in reach.
     This Christmas is on pace to be the biggest ever, and could actually find the might to be the biggest weekend ever, possibly beating the massive grosses from last weekend.

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