Thursday, November 5, 2015

Weekend Forecast: 'Spectre' and 'Peanuts' to Bring Box Office Back to Life

     After some the worst weekends of the year, this weekend looks to be a victorious comeback as the highly-anticipated 'Spectre' and the long-awaited 'Peanuts Movie' are essentially guaranteed to earn huge numbers.
     'Spectre' is the first film that comes to mind when looking at the opening films this weekend, and for good reason. The very-hyped-about sequel to the 2012 spy hit 'Skyfall' ($88.4m opening to $304.4m final) has gathered huge momentum on social media, as its Facebook currently stands at an impressive 4.1 million likes. 'Spectre' also boasts an impressive +99% anticipation rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Plus, Christoph Waltz as a villain has surely got some people buzzing about that. Sam Mendes is also returning to direct, which means fans don't have to worry that the film will go in a different (and usually unwanted) direction. Plus, it's been a (mostly) good year for spy films as recent hits like 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($128.3m) and 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' ($195m) have amassed impressive grosses. Still, although reviews are still pretty decent (62% on RT), they are way off from 'Skyfall''s 93% score. Plus, it won't have the advantage of opening on the franchise's 50th anniversary and the superior popularity of Adele (Sam Smith is still a huge star, but just not as much). The trailers have failed to meet Skyfall's standards as well, and while strong, social media is also lagging behind. While this won't be a disappointment, 'Spectre' will still probably open below 'Skyfall', and to get past its $245m+ budget it will need to open above $90 million, something it will probably fail to do. $80-$87 million is likely.
     Next up is 'The Peanuts Movie', opening in 3,897 theaters. The animated comic adaptation from Blue Sky should benefit mostly from nostalgia, and it has been a while since the last animated movie came out ('Hotel Transylvania 2', and that's pretty harmless at this point). The most recent airing of 'It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown' had brought in an encouraging 6 million viewers, which proves that brand awareness is still strong. Reviews are also very strong so far, with a respectable 85% rating on RT. Anticipation shouldn't be looked over as well, with the current score showing off a fairly great +97% want-to-see rating on RT. Opening an animated film on the first weekend of November is a smart plan, as huge (and mostly unexpected) hits like 'Megamind' ($46m) and 'Big Hero 6' ($56.2m) have performed very nicely in recent years. Pretty much the only factor going against it is Pixar's latest film 'The Good Dinosaur', which opens on Thanksgiving. Still, that's three weeks away, and that's plenty enough time for 'The Peanuts Movie' to make big grosses. Anywhere in the $48-$54 million range should be expected.

Weekend Forecast
1. Spectre - $84.3 million
2. The Peanuts Movie - $51.7 million
3. The Martian - $8 million (-31.7%)
4. Goosebumps - $6.7 million (-32.5%)
5. Bridge of Spies - $5.7 million (-28.2%)

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