Sunday, November 15, 2015

Weekend Estimates: 'Spectre' and 'Peanuts' Hold On as 'Coopers' Find Box Office 'Love', 'The 33' Collapses and 'My All American' Not On Game

     While last weekend's top openers held up strongly this weekend, only one of the new wide releases managed a solid debut while the others were outright disappointments. Meanwhile, Universal's latest limited release underwhelmed and a Bollywood production found an audience.
     Dropping a mostly unexpected 49.7%, the $245-million Daniel Craig led spy movie 'Spectre' earned a solid $35.4 million for a $130.7 million cume. That hold is better than that of 'Skyfall' (-53.5%) and 'Quantum of Solace' (-60.4%), and is the best one since 'Casino Royale' (-24.6%). Coming off its unspectacular debut last weekend as well as mixed reviews (63% on Rotten Tomatoes), everybody expected a 50%+ decline, but word-of-mouth ('A-' CinemaScore and 68% Flixter) has been more than encouraging towards the film. If it continues its strong holds, $190 million should be in reach.
     In second place, 'The Peanuts Movie' dropped 45.3% from its debut last weekend and grossed $24.2 million. While that represents a solid hold, it is a fairly larger one than recent November animated openers ('Big Hero 6' dropped 38.3% and 'Megamind' with 36.7%), suggesting that the fanbase likely rushed out on opening weekend, causing more front-loading than usual. However, 'Peanuts' still has a solid $82.5 million total so far, and reviews (85% on RT) and word-of-mouth (85% Flixter) are very positive. $170 million should still be in reach.
     Leading the weekend's newcomers, CBS Films' $17-million Christmas comedy 'Love the Coopers' debuted to an excellent $8.4 million. With a $3,227 per-theater average, 'Coopers' has the seventh-highest debut for a CBS film. Starting out with $2.82 million on Friday, 'Coopers' increased a strong 22.7% on Saturday to gross $3.46 million and is expected to fall 38.7% on Sunday to earn $2.12 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a back-loaded 2.98-to-1. While this is usually a good sign going forward, the comedy has garnered a paltry 17% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 46% Flixter score. A 'B-' CinemaScore won't help matters either, but due to its nature as a holiday release, it's almost guaranteed for a lengthy run a the box office. Expect a total of over $30 million.
      In fourth place, 'The Martian' slipped just 25.9% and made $6.7 million. The $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi has so far grossed an estimated $207.4 million (ranking sixth among 2015 releases), and $220 million could still be a possibility.
     Rounding out the Top 5, Warner Bros.' $26-million mining drama 'The 33' opened with a disappointing $5.8 million for a $2,384 per-theater take. '33' opened below its already modest pre-release expectations ($7m-$13m), and debuted 48.7% below 'Selma' ($11.3m) and 56.1% below the nationwide expansion of 'Everest' ($13.2m), another disaster-based disappointment. Although Antonio Banderas is a recognizable star, he probably didn't have enough drawing power to rake in a large number of audiences. Mixed reviews didn't help matters either, with a meager 40% on Rotten Tomatoes). '33' began with $1.8 million on Friday, increased 28.6% on Saturday to earn $2.4 million, and is estimated to drop 30.1% on Sunday and gross $1.7 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 3.22-to-1, which could suggest strong legs going forward. Word-of-mouth is mostly positive too, with a 67% Flixter rating. Still, even if that's the case, it still won't make that much due to a lackluster debut, and $20 million or lower is a likely scenario.
     'Goosebumps' placed in sixth place this weekend, grossing $4.7 million and easing 31.7%. The $58-million horror comedy from Sony has so far grossed a strong $73.5 million, and $80 million definitely isn't out of the question.
     'Bridge of Spies' followed in a close seventh, with $4.3 million. The $40-million Steven Spielberg directed Tom Hanks led Cold War thriller slid a slim 26.5% from last weekend, adding to its new $61.7 million total. At this point, getting past $65 million shouldn't be a problem.
     The new Bollywood film, this time a musical, called 'Prem Ratan Dhan Payo' debuted to an excellent $2.4 million this weekend for a $8,392 average from just 286 locations. It began on Thursday to make $387.4k, increased a whopping 79.1% on Friday, earning $694k, increased another 41.8% on Saturday to gross $984k, and should decline a small 26.6% on Sunday to make $722k. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 3.46-to-1. That is a very encouraging sign for the long run, and $8 million and up is likely.
     'Hotel Transylvania 2' grossed $2.35 million this weekend, down 34.8%. The $80-million animated comedy has so far earned $165.2 million, and it remains to be seen if it can push past $168 million or not.
     'The Last Witch Hunter' arguably had a solid hold this weekend, dropping 42.3% and grossing $1.5 million. Still, that doesn't make up for the lackluster $26.1 million total against its $90 million budget. Unfortunately, getting to $30 million will be a challenge for the big-budget action fantasy.
     'Spotlight' rose a HUGE 374% after expanding to 61 locations this weekend. The $20-million ensemble led drama earned a respectable $1.4 million and a $22,925 average over the weekend. With studio plans to further expand the film, it should continue to bring up impressive numbers throughout its release.
     Barely rounding out the Top 12, the $20-million football drama 'My All American' bombed with just $1.4 million for a sad, shameful $889 per-theater average. Although opening so close to fellow faith-based football movie 'Woodlawn' probably didn't have much of an impact on opening weekend gross, reviews probably did as it has a terrible 33% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences greatly enjoyed it however, with 89% of them giving it a thumbs up. Still, don't expect great holds or any significant numbers going forward. $4 million should be possible.
     'By the Sea', the $10-million Angelina Jolie directed Brad Pitt / Jolie led drama, made just $95.4k from 10 locations for an uneventful $9,544 per-theater average. It will be expanding into more locations next weekend, and will have to hope for a more impressive number as reviews (32% on RT) and word-of-mouth (63% Flixter) aren't that reliable at this point.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend made $98.5 million, which is down 34.9% from last weekend. It is also down 23.9% from last year when 'Dumb and Dumber To' led the pack with $36.1 million.
     Next weekend will likely be one of the busiest of the year, as the very highly-anticipated 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' will try to rebound on the disappointment last year and the Seth Rogen / Anthony Mackie / Joseph Gordon-Levitt led R-rated comedy 'The Night Before' steps into theaters. Also, the low-budget revenge thriller 'Secret in Their Eyes' will try to pull off a 'Taken' style debut.

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