Sunday, November 1, 2015

Weekend Actuals: 'Martian', 'Goosebumps', and 'Spies' Rule Once Again as 'Burnt' Gets Roasted, 'Crisis' Gets Vetoed, and 'Scouts Guide' Is Eaten Alive

     On what is the worst weekend of the year, and the worst weekend on Halloween since 1998, the Top 3 from last weekend, Ridley Scott's 'The Martian', the Jack Black led 'Goosebumps', and the Spielberg/Tom Hanks collaboration 'Bridge of Spies', took the top 3 spots again this weekend as the newcomers, the Bradley Cooper led 'Burnt', the Sandra Bullock led 'Our Brand is Crisis', and the horror comedy 'Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse', all flopped.
     Ridley Scott's $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi 'The Martian' took the top spot once again with $11.7 million, down just 25.5% from last weekend. 'Martian' has been displaying excellent holding power due in part to strong reviews and word-of-mouth with $183.1 million in five weeks. $210 million is still a possibility at this point.
     In second place (again), the $58-million Jack Black led horror comedy 'Goosebumps' declined only 36.4%, grossing $9.9 million. 'Goosebumps', with solid reviews (74% on Rotten Tomatoes) and encouraging word-of-mouth (74% Flixter score), has so far made a strong $56.8 million, and will likely pass $80 million by the end of its run.
     'Bridge of Spies' repeated in third again this weekend, earning $8.4 million and decreasing 26.2%. The $40-million Tom Hanks led Cold War thriller has made an excellent $45.5 million, and $65 million is a lock.
     'Hotel Transylvania 2' settled in fourth place, up one spot from last weekend and down a soft 34%, grossing $5.9 million. The $80-million animated comedy passed its predecessor's final gross on Monday, and with $156 million in the bank, reaching $165 million shouldn't be a problem.
     Last weekend's $70-million action fantasy flop 'The Last Witch Hunter' continues to run below expectations with just $5.2 million, down 52.3% from its opening weekend. With an uneventful $19 million so far, 'Witch Hunter' should end its run with around $25 million.
     In sixth place, the $20-million cooking drama starring Bradley Cooper led the newcomers, but made just $5 million ($1,666 per-theater average). That is only a little more than half of what Bradley Cooper's other 2015 release 'Aloha' earned in its opening ($9.7m). Originally projected to earn a solid $7-$9 million in its opening weekend, 'Burnt' began with $1.8 million on Friday, decreased 5.2% on Saturday to make $1.7 million, and grossed $1.4 million for a 17% decline on Sunday. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.78-to-1. That suggests some back-loading, but it probably won't be enough to save 'Burnt' from failing to make back its budget domestically, as reviews (29% on RT) and word-of-mouth ('B-' CinemaScore) have been unkind to the film. A disappointing domestic total of just $15 million is likely.
      'Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension' is also struggling to find an audience, plummeting 57.4% and making only $3.4 million. The $10-million supernatural horror has so far grossed a disappointing $13.6 million, and $15 million should still be in reach.
     Almost edging out 'Ghost Dimension' but still a bomb in its own right, the $28-million Sandra Bullock led 'Our Brand is Crisis' flopped with just $3.2 million for a $1,471 average. 'Crisis' likely suffered from poor reviews (33% on RT) and weak word-of-mouth ('C+' on CinemaScore). It started out with $1.1 million on Friday, increased 12.5% on Saturday to gross $1.3 million, and fell a troublesome 32% on Sunday to earn $857.1k, placing the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a back-loaded 2.91-to-1. Although that is initially a good sign, it still isn't a good enough sign to guarantee very strong holds in the long run. A domestic finish of around $10 million should be expected of the political comedy.
     'Crimson Peak' dropped 45.8% to make $3.1 million this weekend. The $55-million horror from Universal has so far made a soft $27.7 million through three weeks of release, and $33 million is very likely at this point.
     You would think that a well-reviewed, audience-approved Oscar contender like 'Steve Jobs' would experience strong holds throughout its run, even if its opening is less than satisfactory, right? Well, in this case, it just got even worse, falling 62.1% in its second weekend of wide release and grossing just $2.7 million. The $30-million biographical drama continues to run behind expectations GREATLY, and with only $14.7 million in the bank, $20 million will be hard to reach by now.
     'The Intern' held up well as always this weekend, dropping just 36.4% and making $2.4 million. The $35-million comedy has yielded a strong $68.6 million, and $70 million is a forgone conclusion now.
     Barely making it into the Top 12, the $15-million horror comedy 'Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse' bombed hard with just $1.8 million from 1,509 locations, making a $1,220 per-theater average. That is almost 14 times less than what 2009's 'Zombieland' opened to, and marks yet another failure for the sooner-than-usual VOD release pattern that was put into play last weekend with 'Paranormal Activity'. It began with a terrible $687.1k on Friday, fell 5.9% on Saturday to earn $646.6k, and decreased 21.5% on Sunday to earn $507.4k. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a mixed 2.62-to-1. With only 14 days left before its VOD release, and a 32% RT score as well as a 'B-' CinemaScore, 'Scouts' will probably make a meager $4 million by then.
     As previously stated, this is the worst weekend of the year for the Top 12, which grossed just $62.7 million total, beating the previous low of $65.9 million on the weekend of September 4-6, 2015. It was down 34% from last weekend and decreased 21.6% from the $80 million total of last year's Top 12 when 'Ouija', in its second weekend, barely beat 'Nightcrawler'.
     Next weekend is essentially guaranteed to be one of the biggest weekends of the year, with the latest James Bond movie 'Spectre' opening (it is rumored to cost $300m, tying with 'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End' as the most expensive movie of all time) as well as the highly anticipated animated pic 'The Peanuts Movie'.

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