Four new wide releases debut this weekend, with the likes of Fox's 'Fantastic Four', STX Entertainment's 'The Gift', TriStar's 'Ricki and the Flash', and Lionsgate's 'Shaun the Sheep Movie'. The first former should easily take first place from last weekend's victor 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' while the other openers should all wind up with less than $10 million.
'Fantastic Four' is the third installment in the franchise from 20th Century Fox, following 2005's 'Fantastic Four' and its 2007 sequel. It is, in fact, a reboot of the mostly negatively-received superhero series after the first two earned an underwhelming $286.6 million total. The film starts from scratch with stars Miles Teller ('Divergent'), Kate Mara ('127 Hours'), Michael B. Jordan ('Chronicle'), and Jamie Bell ('King Kong'), all of which did fairly well at the box office, especially 'Divergent'. The appealing cast team up with Josh Trank, who had a sleeper hit in his hands in 2012 with the previously mentioned 'Chronicle' ($64.6m). Although that film was received warmly (85% on Rotten Tomatoes), 'Fantastic Four' has been greeted with IMMENSE criticism (an atrocious 9% on RT) and anticipation is performing rather disappointingly for a superhero film. The previous installments weren't really enjoyed by people either. Even with some noticeable box office draws, 'Fantastic Four' should wind up below the first film's debut (unadjusted for inflation), which would be pretty disappointing considering how popular the superhero genre is right now. An opening around $45 million is likely for the $120 million film.
'The Gift' is one of the other films opening in wide release this weekend, being a psychological thriller starring Jason Bateman ('Hancock') and Rebecca Hall ('Iron Man 3'). The $5 million production is directed by Joel Edgerton, who recently starred in 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' ($65m) and 'The Great Gatsby' ($144.8m). It has been a while since the last thriller was released (Self/Less with $12.2m), so fans of the genre will probably go out to see this. The film is also being buoyed by strong reviews (93% on RT) and high anticipation (+96% on RT). It has also been a tough year for thrillers to break out, and with the box office slowing down as summer comes to an end, it is unlikely that 'The Gift' will significantly break out this weekend. Still, look for a debut north of $7.5 million, which would be a good start for the low-budget thriller.
'Ricki and the Flash', starring Meryl Streep, is another movie debuting this weekend, costing $18 million. The comedy-drama is on track to earn a bit less than $10 million, which would be surprisingly low for a Meryl Streep flick. Fans of the actress will rush out to see this, although the marketing hasn't given much effort so general audiences will probably skip this. 'Ricki' has also suffered from mixed critical reviews (55% on RT) and relatively low anticipation (+87% on RT). It would be surprising if the film got past $12 million.
The latest stop-motion animated flick is 'Shaun the Sheep Movie' from Lionsgate. It will present itself as a more family-friendly films than the weekend's other offerings, although it shouldn't make that much of a dent. The comedy opened to a so-so $852.1k on Wednesday, which is lower than that of 'The Pirates! Band of Misfits' ($2.7m) and 'The Boxtrolls' ($4.9m), although those films opened on Friday. 'Shaun the Sheep Movie' will likely wind up with a Friday gross lower than those two, and a total three-day gross of over $4.5 million and a five-day start of $8 million is a lock.
Weekend Forecast
1. 'Fantastic Four' - $42.8 million
2. 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' - $33.7 million (-39.3%)
3. 'Vacation' - $9.6 million (-35.4%)
4. 'Ricki and the Flash' - $9.4 million
5. 'The Gift' - $8.7 million
-- 'Shaun the Sheep Movie' - $5.2 million (3-day), $7.9 million (5-day)
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