Weekend Forecast: 'Straight Outta Compton' to Make Big Money, 'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' to Fail to Detonate

     'Straight Outta Compton' and 'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' drop into theaters this weekend, with the former to easily take the top spot from strong holdover 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' while the latter will open fairly low for a spy film.
     The N.W.A. biopic 'Straight Outta Compton' is being delivered across 2,755 locations this weekend, which is the widest release ever for a rap drama. If it can exceed expectations or open below them, we will not know until Friday. Still, there are some factors that can determine the opening of the highly-anticipated film. 'Straight Outta Compton' revolves around the story of N.W.A., founded by popular hip hop artists Arabian Prince, DJ Yella, Dr. Dre, Eazy E, and Ice Cube. The organization has countless fans, and the film also has an impressive fanbase with a stellar 1.79 million likes. And don't forget that Ice Cube's most recent film, 'Ride Along' which also starred Kevin Hart, was a massive hit back in 2014 when it earned $134.9 million. The trailers have been performing rather remarkably, as the Red Band (restricted) version has generated 6.4 million views. Plus, very similar rap biopic/drama 8 Mile, starring Eminem, opened with a terrific $51.2 million in 2002 and closed with a hefty $116.8 million, proving that rap movies can still be box office successes. And last but not least, 'Compton' has earned an 85% score on Rotten Tomatoes, and users on that site give the anticipation score a promising +96% want-to-see rating.
     However, some things are against 'Straight Outta Compton'. First, a series of recent events where African-Americans are shot by police are worrying some that these incidents can influence a shooting at a showtime for this film. It is gang-based (Compton is a very dark place to live in), and those moviegoers who are worried about this happening will likely skip out on this, as they believe that this film will cause a rise in gang activity. Rap movies are also notoriously front-loaded, as even 8 Mile had a second weekend drop of 62.2%. 'Notorious' is another rap movie that was, ironically, notoriously front-loaded with a second weekend drop of 71.8%. However, both had decently back-loaded weekends, so if 'Straight Outta Compton' underperforms on Friday it can still save some face going through the weekend.

     The weekend's other newcomer is spy flick 'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.', debuting in over 3,638 platforms. The Guy Ritchie directed action film from Warner Bros. has low box office potential, although the possibility of breaking out isn't completely out of the question. It costs $75 million, which is relatively modest compared to what higher-profile blockbusters are made for ($150-250m). However, that number is still a risky bet, as if this film fails domestically 'U.N.C.L.E.' will have to rely on overseas audiences, and they aren't always a film's savior ('Pixels' and 'Fantastic Four' have had disappointing runs in foreign countries). One pro is that 'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' is at least directed by Guy Ritchie, who has found success in the 'Sherlock Holmes' films ($395.8m total). One of the stars, Henry Cavill, is also fairly popular thanks mostly in part to his performance as Superman in 2013's 'Man of Steel' ($291m) and his role in the much highly-anticipated 'Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice'.
     Unfortunately, there seems to be more cons than pros for this one. To begin with, reviews aren't terrible, but they're nothing to do cartwheels over, with a so-so 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. It has higher anticipation than the other weekend's new wide release, although less users voted for 'U.N.C.L.E.'. The most recent 'Mission: Impossible' might have stole some of its potential, as it is also a spy film centered around high-profile actors doing crazy stunts with a handful of co-stars working with them as well. Audiences who have seen 'Mission: Impossible' and didn't like it will probably look over this, thinking it is a rip-off of the 'M:I' franchise (it was even a 60's TV show like 'U.N.C.L.E.'!). Co-star Armie Hammer also isn't a box office draw, as his latest films 'The Lone Ranger' ($89.3m cume/$215m budget) and 'Mirror Mirror' ($64.9m cume/$85m budget) flopped domestically. Also, it has been a tough summer for films to break out ('Pixels', 'Fantastic Four', and R-rated comedies, we're all looking at you), so a film like this probably won't make a huge dent.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Straight Outta Compton' - $53.1 million

2. 'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' - $20 million (-29.8%)

3. 'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' - $15.8 million

4. 'Fantastic Four' - $9.2 million (-64.2%)

5. 'The Gift' - $6.1 million (-48.4%)