Sunday, July 23, 2017

'Dunkirk' and 'Girls Trip' Break Out, 'Valerian' Implodes, and 'Wonder Woman' Becomes Summer Box Office Champion

     With Dunkirk opening very strongly and Wonder Woman once again posting excellent holds, distributor Warner Bros. has officially crossed the $1 billion mark at the domestic box office for this year, following Disney and Universal. Speaking of Universal, their R-rated comedy Girls Trip opened well above expectations and broke the streak of R-rated comedy failures that started this summer. Meanwhile, STX's sci-fi extravaganza Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets is shaping up to be one of the biggest bombs of the year, at least in North America.
     In first place, Christopher Nolan's WWII action thriller Dunkirk, which cost around $100 million to make, opened to $50.5 million, well above the $35 million to $40 million it was projected to make. This is a very strong start considering it opened in a very crowded marketplace, and that adult-targeting dramas in the summer typically don't do very well. It opened above Nolan's last film, 2014's Interstellar ($47.5m), although the latter narrowly beats it adjusted for inflation. It started 19.6% below Inception's $62.8 million start back in 2010, but that film had more star power and sci-fi thrills than Dunkirk. It made approximately $11.7 million in IMAX alone from 402 sites, making for a sturdy average of $29k. Among World War II themed films, it has the third highest opening behind only Captain America: The First Avenger ($65.1m) and Pearl Harbor ($59.1m). It more than tripled the recent opening of Hacksaw Ridge ($15.2m) and more than doubled the openings of Fury ($23.7m), The Monuments Men ($22m), and Valkyrie ($21m). With strong reviews (92% on Rotten Tomatoes) and solid word-of-mouth (84% on Flixter), it should be able to hold its own against a slew of competition in the coming weeks, which will feature the likes of Atomic Blonde, The Dark Tower, and Annabelle: Creation, to name a few. If it plays like Interstellar, it gets to $200 million domestic. If it plays like any of Nolan's Batman films, it finishes anywhere from $140 million to $215 million. A multiple like Fury or The Monuments Men translates to around $180 million total. Any of those numbers would be rock solid, but it's most likely to finish with at least $175 million when all is said and done.Image result for dunkirk
     Second place belongs to the $19-million R-rated comedy Girls Trip, which brought in a surprising $30.4 million from 2,591 locations. Not only is it director Malcolm D. Lee's biggest opener, but it broke the recent losing streak of R-rated comedies this year. It began in the middle of May when Snatched opened with a decent $19.5 million but collapsed in the following weeks, topping out at just $45.8 million. The next underperformer was the Memorial Day release Baywatch, whose awful reviews overcame a powerful cast and ultimately made it open to $18.5 million and finish with only $58 million total. June releases Rough Night and The House both failed to open over $10 million, and the latter will likely barely pass $25 million total. However, Girls Trip triumphed over all of them simply because of two things: a relatable premise and good reviews. First off, one factor important to a comedy's success is its ability to be relatable to the audience. Moviegoers likely haven't been kidnapped in South America or accidentally killed a male stripper or build an illegal casino under their house, but they probably have went on or at least seen others take part in a crazy week of antics and bad behavior, which is exactly what happens in Girls Trip. It also helped that this film has an outstanding score of 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, while none of the others could top 50%.
     Its opening weekend is obviously a success, but the real question now is if it can hold up any better than the previous comedies. If it scores similar multiples as those, it will finish anywhere from $70 million to $95 million. If it plays like some of the director's previous films, it has a range of $68 million to $81 million. Either way, this is a win for all involved and gives hope to R-rated comedies that are of actual quality.
     Third and fourth belonged to two former weekend champions. Spider-Man: Homecoming slightly softened last weekend's hard blow with a $22 million third weekend, down 50.2% from last weekend's harsh 60%+ drop. Its total now stands at $251.7 million, and should pass The Amazing Spider-Man ($262m) some time next week. Expect a final total of around $275 million, although if holds up well in subsequent weeks it could make a run for $300 million, however unlikely.
     Following was last weekend's winner, War for the Planet of the Apes. Unfortunately, it suffered the same fate as Spider-Man, dropping a whopping 63.7% for a mild $20.4 million second weekend. Despite ecstatic reviews and solid word-of-mouth, it seems that the trilogy capper just isn't connecting with audiences, and so far has grossed an underwhelming $97.8 million for a possible final cume of under $150 million. Apparently not even the best of the franchises can survive fatigue this summer.
     Rounding out the Top 5, is the weekend's last new nationwide opener, the $209-million Luc Besson directed sci-fi epic Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which bombed hard with only $17.02 million. It's way behind the $43.9 million start of Lucy, and is just a hair behind the director's The Fifth Element ($17.03m). However, the latter opened all the way back in 1997, so attendance for this film was significantly behind that one. It started in between big-budget 2017 duds King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($15.4m) and The Great Wall ($18.5m), and was well behind 2012's John Carter ($30.2m) and Battleship ($25.5m). Blame the middling reviews (54% on RT), overstuffed marketplace, and general uninterest and unfamiliarity among audiences. Its source material is French, and although it should do massive business there, it just didn't click here. Expect a total of less than $45 million, which would be very disappointing.
     From spots 6 to 9, none of the films dropped below 35%. In sixth was Despicable Me 3, which dropped 34.3% and added $12.7 million for a $213.3 million total. $250 million should be in reach, which would make it the lowest-grossing film in the franchise but still a success due to its low production cost. In seventh place was the summer's breakout hit, Baby Driver, which continued to hold its own as it slipped 31.1% to gross $6 million. Its total now is $84.2 million, and could very well be on its way for a $100m+ finish. Eighth place was occupied by another breakout, The Big Sick, which took advantage of glowing reviews and word-of-mouth and dropped 33.9% from its nationwide expansion for a $5 million weekend and a $24.5 million total. Expect $35 million or more for the rom-com.
     Finally, in ninth place is the summer's new box office champion, Wonder Woman. The $149-million period action film starring Gal Gadot dropped just 31.9% in its eighth weekend for $4.6 million. It has now grossed $389 million total, putting it ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($387.2m) as the biggest film of the summer. After opening with a stunning $103.3 million, it surprised even more by experiencing especially strong holds, which is rare for a superhero film. Never dropping more than 50%, the female-directed superhero film rode a wave of hot buzz and strong reviews to change the game for the DC Extended Universe, and is now on pace to become the biggest origin story film ever in the superhero genre, possibly passing up Spider-Man ($403.7m in 2002). $400 million is essentially a guarantee at this point, which is outstanding and groundbreaking for the genre.
     The Top 12 grossed $174.2 million total this weekend, up 10.2% from last week and a solid 12.1% from the same weekend last year when The Secret Life of Pets continued its reign against the unpopular reboot of Ghostbusters.

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