Monday, July 25, 2016

Weekend Report: 'Star Trek Beyond' Warps into Top Spot, 'Lights Out' Chills Out and 'Ice Age' Freezes Up

     The reign of animated blockbusters is over, thanks to the big-budget franchise tentpole 'Star Trek Beyond', which easily took the top spot from 'The Secret Life of Pets', though it did come in quite a bit below its predecessors. Also opening were the micro-budget thriller 'Lights Out', which exceeded expectations, and the big-budget animated flick 'Ice Age: Collision Course', which delivered a more-than-underwhelming performance.
      In first place, the $185-million sci-fi action/adventure 'Star Trek Beyond' beamed up $59.3 million for a $15.1k per-theater average, which is right in line with pre-release expectations ($45m-$65m). It is the third best debut of the franchise, behind the 2009 reboot ($75.2m) and its sequel ($70.2m), continuing the downward trend of the franchise. Among 2016 releases, it is the second best opening for a non-animated or non-comic-adapted film behind April's 'The Jungle Book'. For the summer, it is the third best live-action opening behind only 'Captain America: Civil War' ($179.1m) and 'X-Men: Apocalypse' ($65.8m), which were both comic book movies sequels. Overall, this is a pretty solid debut, as the lukewarm reception to the first trailer, the absence of the beloved J. J. Abrams in the director's chair and presence of Justin Lin, and declining grosses between installments were working against the film's favor.
     Starting out with $22.3 million on Friday (including $5.5m from Thursday), 'Beyond' dipped a light 7.2% for $20.7 million on Saturday and declined a further 20.9% on Sunday for $16.3 million for a weekend-to-Friday ratio of 2.66-to-1, which falls below the 2.8-to-1 ratio of 'Star Trek' and 3.25-to-1 ratio of 'Star Trek Into Darkness' (though the latter opened on Thursday instead of the traditional Friday). This suggests that the film will fail to hold up as well as those films. However, with strong reviews (84% on RT) and word-of-mouth (86% Flixter rating and 'A-' CinemaScore), it's hard to think that the three-quel will fail to hold up as well as 'Into Darkness' (3.26x). That result gets it to a strong $193.3 million total. The previous 'Star Trek' films were able to hold their own amidst brutal competition throughout the summer, and with the only major films challenging its holding power in the coming weeks being 'Jason Bourne' next weekend and 'Suicide Squad' the following weekend, a $190 million gross or higher seems plausible.
      Last weekend's champion 'The Secret Life of Pets' continued its impressive run in theaters, dropping a solid 41.8% to gross $29.6 million for a grand total of $261 million through three weeks of play. That is a better third weekend hold than 'Despicable Me 2' (-43.3%) and 'Minions' (-53.5%). With no major family competition until 'Pete's Dragon' on August 12, 'Pets' should continue to hold up well throughout the month of July. A $320 million total is still possible for the $75-million toon.
     In a very strong third place, Warner Bros.' $4.9-million horror flick 'Lights Out' scared up a much-better-expected $21.7 million for a robust $7.7k PTA. It represents the fourth straight success of a horror film this summer, following 'The Conjuring 2' ($40.4m), 'The Shallows' ($16.8m), and 'The Purge: Election Year' ($31.5m). Strong reviews and solid word-of-mouth easily helped 'Lights Out' overcome expectations, and with a solid premise that is superior to most horror offerings audiences were clearly convinced to check out this PG-13 thriller.
     The horror film opened to $9.2 million on Friday (including $1.8m from Thursday), fell 22.1% on Saturday for $7.1 million, and dropped 24.1% on Sunday to gross $5.4 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.36-to-1, typical for a horror film regardless of reviews. Word-of-mouth is currently at 74% on Flixter coinciding with the 77% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes, indicating that 'Lights Out' could possibly hold up better than your average horror film. In that case, a cume above $55 million is very likely.
     In a very disappointing fourth, Fox's $105-million animated sequel 'Ice Age: Collision Course' opened to just $21.4 million. That's way less than half of the previous outing in the long-running franchise, 'Continental Drift' ($46.6m) and is less than a third of 'The Meltdown''s debut ($68m). With the strongly-reviewed (not to mention highly-anticipated) 'Finding Dory' and 'Secret Life of Pets' already tearing up the marketplace, it was unlikely many were going to care for another 'Ice Age' film, which received very poor reviews that likely fended off casual moviegoers. Apparently the franchise just grew one film too long.
      The toon opened to a measly $7.9 million on Friday (including $850k from Thursday), fell 3.2% on Saturday to gross $7.7 million, and fell another 24.5% on Sunday to gross $5.8 million. The ratio here is a so-so 2.71-to-1, which is quite front-loaded for an animated offering (except for a highly-anticipated monster opener). With a 13% RT rating and 46% Flixter score, it doesn't look likely to beat the multiplier of 'Ice Age: The Meltdown' (2.87x). In that case, a $60 million total is most likely out of reach, which would signify a loss of over $100 million compared to the previous installment. However, it is doing exceptionally well overseas, where it just passed the $200 million global mark.
     'Ghostbusters' dropped quite a bit this weekend, falling 54.3% for $21 million in its sophomore frame. The $144-million franchise starter has now grossed $86.3 million, and though a possible $140 million final cume isn't anything to be sorry about Sony will have to hope for strong international returns if they want to keep making 'Ghostbusters' films.
     In seventh and eighth, Warner Bros.' $180-million adventure 'The Legend of Tarzan' and Fox's $33-million R-rated comedy 'Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates' both had identical drops. The former dipped 42.5% for $6.6 million and a $116 million cume. The film has surprisingly not fell more than 50% in any of its weekends yet, and will likely end its run with around $130 million. The latter eased 42.7% for $4.4 million and a $40.3 million gross in three weeks of play. A $50 million may be doable.
     'Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party' claimed ninth place and grossed $3.96 million, up 5,199.3% due to its 1,213 extra theaters. The political documentary is generating positive word-of-mouth among Republicans and with $4.1 million in the bank, a $15 million grand total is likely.
     'The Infiltrator' held up well in its second weekend, grossing $3.3 million (-37.2%). Though it is impressive considering its muted grosses last weekend and mixed reviews and word-of-mouth, its $12.3 million cume is still a big loss for Broad Green Pictures. Unfortunately, the Bryan Cranston drug thriller looks to fail to top $20 million.
     'Central Intelligence' and 'The Purge: Election Year' rounded out the Top 12. The former made $2.8 million (-37.2%) for a $123.1 million total. $130 million still seems possible. The latter plummeted 61.5% for $2.4 million and has now grossed $76.6 million. Though $90 million is out of reach at this point, $85 million could be a lock.
     The Top 12 grossed $183.6 million, up 18.2% from last weekend and up 29.5% from last year when 'Ant-Man' repeated atop of 'Pixels'.
     Next weekend sees the release of another long-awaited sequel in the form of 'Jason Bourne', which is expected to return the film series to its original box office glory. Meanwhile, 'Bad Moms' will try to be the first R-rated comedy breakout of the summer following a couple of duds and the thriller 'Nerve' will open this Wednesday, though it isn't expected to make much.

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