Saturday, October 10, 2015

Friday Report: 'The Martian' Back on Top While 'Pan' Loses its Magic, 'The Walk' Trips on the Wire and 'Steve Jobs' Innovates

     Fox's 'The Martian' looks to take the #1 spot again this weekend as Warner Bros.' 'Pan' and TriStar's 'The Walk' both fail to make a big impact. Meanwhile, Universal's 'Steve Jobs' soars in limited release.
     In the number one spot this weekend, Ridley Scott's $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi pic 'The Martian' grossed $10.8 million on Friday, down just 40.8% from opening day and up 182.8% from Thursday. That's a weaker drop than 'Gravity' (-27.9%) but stronger than 'Interstellar' (-50.8%). Those films made $43.2 million ('Gravity') and $28.3 million ('Interstellar') in their second weekends, and with strong reviews (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('A' on CinemaScore) as well as a performance of $82.5 million so far, anywhere between those numbers is a lock.
     In second place, $80-million animated comedy 'Hotel Transylvania 2' made an excellent $5.3 million yesterday. 'Transylvania 2' was up 307% from Thursday and down just 29.3% from last Friday. Relying on solid word-of-mouth (74% Flixter score), the sequel should finish the weekend with around $23-$25 million.
     Warner Bros.' $150-million Hugh Jackman led fantasy 'Pan' flopped with just $5.2 million on Friday. That is below the $7.7 million debut of 'Jack the Giant Slayer' and way below the $190-million sci-fi adventure 'Tomorrowland''s $9.7 million Friday gross. 'Pan' was panned by critics (23% on RT), and audiences sort of felt the same way ('B+' CinemaScore). $650k of that came from Thursday night previews, which is ironically more than 'Jack''s $400k. It was also more front-loaded than 'Tomorrowland' ($750k). If it plays like 'Tomorrowland', it will end up with $18 million. A more realistic projection is $15 million.
     'The Intern' placed in fourth with $2.7 million, up 157.2% from Thursday and down a slim 25.6% from last Friday. The $35-million Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro led comedy has grossed a strong $43.6 million in 15 days, and a third weekend of $8.5-$9 million is likely.
     'Sicario' rounded out the Top 5 with a strong $2.3 million. The $30-million Emily Blunt led R-rated crime thriller from Lionsgate dropped 47.4% from last week and up 146.5% from Thursday. 'Sicario' has so far grossed a solid $21.6 million, and $7m+ should be a lock.
     The $35-million biographical drama 'The Walk' was up 556.1% from Thursday and up 194.6% from last Friday, but only wound up in seventh place and grossing $1.2 million. 'Walk', starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and directed by Robert Zemeckis, experienced very disappointing numbers during its one-week release of IMAX only locations, and obviously failed to build significantly upon that in its nationwide release despite receiving strong reviews (86% on RT) and word-of-mouth (86% Flixter score). 'Walk' should finish the weekend with around $3.5 million, which would be a disappointment.
     Universal's $30-million Michael Fassbender led drama 'Steve Jobs' did outstanding in limited release on Friday, premiering in 4 locations in LA and NY and grossing $175k for an impressive $43,750 per-theater average. That is greater than last year's 'Birdman''s Friday performance ($135.6k for a $33,901 average). 'Birdman' also opened in four exclusive locations in LA/NY. That film went on to earn $424.4k over the weekend for a $106,099 average, and anything above that number is very likely. Expect a stellar weekend of well over $500k, which would definitely be a success.

Weekend Forecast
1. 'The Martian' - $35.4 million (-34.8%)
2. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $22.4 million (-32.5%)
3. 'Pan' - $16.4 million
4. 'The Intern' - $8.5 million (-27.7%)
5. 'Sicario' - $7.2 million (-40.9%)
-   'Steve Jobs' - $560k

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