Weekend Estimates: 'Mockingjay' Holds on to First While 'Krampus' Scares Up a Merry Debut

     On one of the best post-Thanksgiving weekends in history, 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' held on to first despite suffering the second-worst third weekend drop of the franchise as the low-budget Christmas horror comedy 'Krampus' thrilled with a better-than-expected opening.

     Claiming first place for the third week in a row, the $160-million Jennifer Lawrence led 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' fell a whopping 64.2% from its second weekend ($52m) to gross $18.6 million. After experiencing the first sub-50% drop of the franchise, 'Part 2' returned to the typical week-to-week drops of the series. Still, with a healthy $227.1 million as of December 6, 2015, this is hardly a failure. A disappointment, yes, but not a failure. Expect a finish of around $270 million for the franchise finale.
     Second place was also owned by a strong competitor, this time in the form of 'Krampus', the $15-million Christmas horror comedy from Universal. It grossed an estimated $16 million from 2,902 locations for a $5,520 per-theater average, which is the best PTA for any nationwide release this weekend. A number of factors could have contributed to 'Krampus''s unexpected opening, due largely to the fact that Universal was offering a unique event at the movies this weekend that is usually rarely seen. Christmas horrors aren't that common, and Christmas films in general tend to do well when they're released in November (look at 'Night Before' and 'Love the Coopers'). However, treating audiences with this type of film is an unexpectedly smart move, giving them a fresh take on the genre while avoiding the "been-there, done-that" feel typically produced in horror films. Reviews are also above-average for 'Krampus', with a decent 64% score. Word-of-mouth is also a bit better than recent scary films, as a 'B-' CinemaScore and a 67% Flixter score are pretty much unheard of for this genre. Michael Dougherty could have also been a reason, albeit a small one, that this film performed so well. 'Krampus' is coming off of the widely-liked Halloween horror 'Trick 'r Treat', which was very well received from critics and audiences alike. That movie went straight-to-video, and became an instant cult hit. Its recognition could have helped boost weekend grosses, as the fanbase for the director is pretty loyal.

     'Krampus' started out on Friday with $6 million, which actually put it in first place that day. It increased 9.7% on Saturday to earn $6.6 million and should fall 48.1% on Sunday to make $3.4 million. This puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.67-to-1, again exceeding the standard level for horror movies. With decent reviews and word-of-mouth, as well as its nature as a holiday film, 'Krampus' should hold up relatively well in the coming weeks. $40 million and up would be a likely finish for the low-budget hit.

     Coming off of its solid $29.6 million debut and its $42.1 million five-day opening, 'Creed' barely beat 'The Good Dinosaur' for third place this weekend. The $35-million boxing drama declined 47.6% from last weekend, which is among the better holds of the nationwide releases, and grossed $15.54 million. Since opening last Wednesday, 'Creed' has grossed a very strong $65.1 million and should continue to hold up well throughout the holiday season. $100 million is still a reasonable possibility, making it the fourth 'Rocky' film to do so and putting it ahead of the likes of 'Rocky II' ($85.2m), 'Rocky V' ($40.9m), and 'Rocky Balboa' ($70.3m).

     Dropping a ghastly 60.4% from its $39.2 million weekend, Pixar's 'The Good Dinsosaur' continued to run way below Pixar movie standards. That drop ranks as the worst second-weekend drop for a Pixar film, slightly worse than the 60.3% decline of 'Cars 2' in 2011. It made $15.51 million this weekend, below the $21.6 million weekend of 'Tangled', which wasn't even a Pixar film. With an underwhelming $76 million cume so far, making back its $200 million budget domestically is going to be a really tough challenge. Topping out at $130 million would be, for lack of a better word, pathetic, but it should get at least $145 million in before it disappears from theaters. Still, that would make it the lowest-grossing Pixar film ever released, and that isn't something to be happy about.
     In a distant fifth place, 'Spectre' added $5.4 million, down 57.9%, for a $184.5 million cume. The $245-million spy action film starring Daniel Craig should be able to reach $190 million for its domestic final.
     'The Night Before', the $25-million R-rated Xmas comedy starring Seth Rogen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Anthony Mackie, made $4.9 million this weekend, representing a 41.3% decline from last weekend's grosses. 'Night Before' has so far made a strong $32 million, and should get to $40 million by the end of its run.
     'Good Dinosaur' wasn't the only animated film to take a massive hit this weekend. 'The Peanuts Movie' plummeted 63.8% for $3.5 million. As front-loaded as it is, 'Peanuts' has now grossed a solid $121.4 million domestic, and should close with around $135 million.
     'Spotlight' was down 33.6% and earned $2.9 million. The strongly-cast drama is approaching its production budget at a respectable speed, with $16.6 million so far. If it plays like 'Birdman', it will gross $30 million when its done playing.
     'Brooklyn' declined 38.4% for $2.4 million. The period romance drama has so far made a very strong $11.2 million due in part to glowing reviews and audience reception.
     The Top 12 this year made an estimated $90 million altogether, down 48.1% from last weekend (a typical hold for post-Thanksgiving) and up 28.1% from last year when 'Mockingjay - Part 1' also three-peated.
     Next weekend sees the release of the Chris Hemsworth led adventure thriller 'In the Heart of the Sea', based on the story that inspired Moby Dick, and the nationwide expansion of the crime film 'Legend' after its respectable run in limited release as well as the limited release of 'The Big Short'.