'Star Wars' just won't stop breaking records. The seventh installment in the series, 'The Force Awakens', easily claimed the biggest single-day launch in history. The $200m sci-fi epic from J. J. Abrams took in an estimated $120.5 million on Friday, beating the previous record-holder 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2' ($91.1m). That included a massive $57 million from Thursday previews, and adjusting for Friday 'proper' (Friday grosses without the Thursday grosses) the film still made a huge $63.5 million. Even more impressive is that 'Star Wars' obliterated 'The Hobbit''s opening weekend ($84.6m) in a single day for the highest-grossing December opening of all time. It is now a forgone conclusion that 'The Force Awakens' will take the opening weekend record from 'Jurassic World' ($208.8m), which opened to $82 million during its release. However, it was a very front-loaded Friday as well, with the Thursday grosses accounting for a whopping 47.3% of Friday's gross, similar to the 47.7% share of 'Harry Potter'. If 'Star Wars' holds up through the weekend like that film, it will have around a 50% drop on Saturday and a 15% drop on Sunday, giving it a $231.96 million opening weekend. Although it should hold up a bit better than that, having a Friday multiplier like that of 'Avengers 2' (2.27x for $273.5m weekend) or 'Jurassic World' (2.55x for $307.3m weekend) may be overestimating its potential. I think that a likely outcome would be a 42% drop on Saturday ($69.9m) and another 8% decrease on Sunday ($64.3m). That would put it a $254.7 million opening weekend, marking the most historic opening in both the franchise's history and cinema's. Even though that would be a very front-loaded weekend (2.11x), it should hold up well throughout the holidays thanks to overwhelmingly positive reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore), and eventually dethrone 'Avatar' ($760.5m domestic/$2.79b worldwide) for the highest-grossing release domestically of all time and probably the highest-grossing release worldwide as well.
In a very distant (yet solid) second place, Universal's R-rated comedy 'Sisters' brought in an estimated $4.9 million on Friday. That is a bit lower than 'Baby Mama''s $6.4 million Friday, but is at least more than 'This is 40''s $3.7 million opening. 'Sisters' provided good counter-programming against 'Star Wars' for women who aren't as interested into it as the men are or are just waiting out for the crowds to die out (which probably won't happen anytime soon). Since it reunites Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, 'Sisters' should hold up similar to 'Baby Mama', albeit a bit better due to it being a holiday release. Expect a strong $14 million debut, which would beat my $11.5 million prediction.
In a close third was family comedy 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip'. Being the fourth in its series and the fact that the third film dropped off a sizable amount from its predecessors, many expected another steep decline. While it was off by 38.8%, 'Road Chip' still had a pretty solid $4.1 million opening. It will likely follow the pattern of the third film, which would put it at $14.1 million over the weekend, also beating my prediction (which was $11.9m).As expected, the holdovers all fell more than 50% from last Friday due to the added competition of 'Star Wars'. Leading them was, of course, 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' with $1.6 million, off 53.1%. With a $250.3 million total so far, a $5.4 million fifth weekend is likely.
Rounding out the Top 5 was 'Creed', bringing in $1.4 million and declining 53.3% from last Friday. The $35m boxing drama has took in $84.2 million, and $4.5 million is a likely weekend gross.
Weekend Forecast (Updated)
1. 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' - $254.7 million
2. 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' - $14.1 million
3. 'Sisters' - $14 million
4. 'The Hunger Games Mockingjay -Part 2' - $5.4 million (-52.6%)
5. 'The Good Dinosaur' - $4.9 million (-52.4%)
No comments:
Post a Comment