Monthly Forecast: January 2016

     In a new tradition, I'm going to take a look at all the nationwide releases in the following month and analyze their prospects of success. As 2015 comes to a close, I thought it would be appropriate to shift the spotlight on January 2016's releases.

The Hateful Eight

First up is the new Western from Quentin Tarantino. It isn't a 2016 release, but it goes wide on the first weekend of January so it should be worth mentioning. It's been doing very well in limited release, with a current total of $5.7 million from just 100 locations. The nationwide version is going to be cut down by about 20 minutes, allowing more showtimes to be available. Tarantino's last film, 'Django Unchained', opened to $30.1 million over Christmas in 2012 and finished with around $162.8 million. While 'Hateful Eight' is essentially guaranteed to earn a bit less than that, it should be able to become the fourth Tarantino film to earn over $100 million in domestic sales.
Predicted Opening: $28 million
Predicted Total: $106 million

The Forest

It has now become a routine to release low-budget horror films on the first weekend of January. This time, it's 'The Forest' that will attempt to possess audiences after the New Year. It has the potential to pull off a 'Devil Inside'-like stunt and earn around $30 million in its opening weekend alone, but no other horror movie that opened on the same weekend reached that mark again ('Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D' ($21.7m), 'Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones' ($18.3m), 'The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death' ($15m)). Although the marketing has been fairly solid so far (taking advantage of the fact that the setting is the real-life Suicide Forest), 'Forest' should continue the string of declining opening grosses. Plus, all those films mentioned above failed to double their openings, so the same fate for 'Forest' is likely.
Predicted Opening: $11 million
Predicted Total: $20.5 million

The Revenant

After a phenomenal opening in limited release (20th biggest opening per-theater average), The Revenant will hope to build upon strong reviews and all the Oscar buzz surrounding it. The marketing has been mainly focusing on this, and it seems to be working as it has currently raked in $696.8k from just four locations. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu isn't as recognized as Tarantino, but after the breakout success of 'Birdman', his presence is certainly known. The Western thriller is reported to have a budget of around $135 million, so not only does 'Revenant' have to open strong, it will have to hold up pretty well too. Predicting this one will be a little tricky since limited-to-wide films have a spotty track record. Hopefully the 3,000+ theater count will help it more accessible to a wider audience.
Predicted Opening: $30 million
Predicted Total: $125 million

The Masked Saint

Not much is known about this movie, other than the fact that it's based on a book and that it received strong praise at the 2015 International Christian Film festival. However, audience awareness for this film is very small, and anticipation isn't that high (+94% from only 33 users on Rotten Tomatoes). Add in a nearly unrecognizable cast and a rather odd premise (wrestler-turned-pastor-turned-vigilante), this should barely make a blip on the radar.
Predicted Opening: $1.5 million
Predicted Total: $4 million

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

War movies opening in mid-January generally have a strong track record ('Zero Dark Thirty', 'Lone Survivor', 'American Sniper'), and especially ones based on books ('Survivor' & 'Sniper'). All of those started in limited release however, whereas '13 Hours' is automatically going nationwide. It is a war movie based on a popular book, but with Michael Bay in the director's chair, not many are expecting reviews to be as glamorous as previous films. The marketing is doing a decent job of getting people to know that this movie is out there, and the ones who do appreciate Bay's work will likely turn out to see this. Just don't expect any 'American Sniper'-like opening, as it would take a true miracle for that to happen.
Predicted Opening: $23 million (Four-Day)
Predicted Total: $68 million

Norm of the North

Similar to 2014's 'The Nut Job', 'Norm of the North' will debut in mid-January against a 'Ride Along' movie. While kids may be impressed with the film's kiddy teasers, it doesn't seem that adults are that enthusiastic about it. However, that was the case with 'Nut Job' and that opened to nearly $20 million. While it would be tough to expect something like that from 'Norm', somewhere in the mid-teens would be doable. From here, it just looks like all it would need is decent word-of-mouth and solid marketing.
Predicted Opening: $16 million (Four-Day)
Predicted Total: $50 million

Ride Along 2

Following the success of the first 'Ride Along', the sequel brings in more humor, action, and car chases to the franchise than ever before. 'Ride Along' debuted to a stunning $41.5 million in its first three days, easily taking the January opening record (before being absolutely demolished by 'American Sniper' the following year). It held on pretty well for a movie of its genre, and ended with $134.9 million. While a sequel to the surprise hit is almost guaranteed to do as well, comedy sequels generally tend to be off from their predecessors (examples include 'Ted 2', 'The Hangover Part II', 'Magic Mike XXL'). Even the PG-rated 'Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2' couldn't retain half of the first's audience. Also, the first wasn't remembered to fondly (59% Flixter score) by audiences and critics (18% on RT) alike. Like many other comedy sequels, it should fall off from its predecessor, but the question is by how much.
Predicted Opening: $49 million (Four-Day)
Predicted Total: $115 million

The Fifth Wave

Unless it's from 'Hunger Games', 'Divergent', or 'Maze Runner', big-budget YA-adapted sci-fi generally doesn't do too well in theaters. Just look at 'Ender's Game' ($61.7m to $110m budget) and 'The Host' ($26.6m to $40m budget). Although Chloe Grace Moretz is becoming increasingly famous due to her recent works ('If I Stay' and 'The Equalizer'), she probably won't be enough to save this one from being the latest YA flop ('Ender's Game' had Harrison Ford, Ben Kingsley, and Asa Butterfield).
Predicted Opening: $10.5 million
Predicted Total: $25 million

The Boy

STX Entertainment kicked things off pretty well with 'The Gift' ($43.8m) last year, but stumbled a bit with their second release 'Secret in Their Eyes' ($20.1m). 'The Boy' should have a production budget closer to 'Gift' ($5m) than 'Secret' ($19.5m), so even if it does underwhelm it won't lose that much. Like 'Gift' and 'Secret', marketing isn't that strong now, but 'Boy' should gain momentum once it nears its release. A horror movie about a possessed doll is nothing new, but the latest in the genre was no disappointment ('Annabelle' grossed a solid $84.3m). However, 'Annabelle' had a connection to the 2013 hit 'The Conjuring' ($137.4m), which was probably the main draw for audiences. Expect 'Boy' to finish with around what 'Annabelle' opened to.
Predicted Opening: $14 million
Predicted Total: $36 million

Dirty Grandpa

Robert De Niro and Zac Efron star in this raunchy R-rated comedy about two relatives who go on a road trip. While both of those stars have their own fanbases that could unite when it's in theaters, both have had their fair share of disappointments. Robert De Niro recently starred in last year's hits 'The Intern' ($75.3m) and 'Joy' ($22.5m and counting), but he had the help of other famous co-stars. When there's not so many draws though, he isn't as reliable as expected ('The Big Wedding' and 'Grudge Match' didn't really connect with audiences). Zac Efron's 'We Are Your Friends' flopped with just $3.6 million. There aren't that many ads selling the movie to audiences either, so expect some underwhelming numbers to go along with its debut.
Predicted Opening: $8 million
Predicted Total: $23 million

Fifty Shades of Black

Following the massive success of 'Fifty Shades of Grey', Open Road Films decided to make a spoof of that movie with Marlon Wayans in the lead. Unfortunately, comedy spoofs aren't exactly booming in business these days ('Scary Movie 5' and 'A Haunted House 2' both bombed with just $32m and $17.3m). Still, seeing a parody of one of the most controversial movies ever is something of a must-see for audiences, and don't be surprised if it ends up close to Wayans' previous spoof 'A Haunted House' ($18.1m opening/$40m finish).
Predicted Opening: $17 million
Predicted Total: $38 million

The Finest Hours

'Star Trek' star Chris Pine arrives in an $85-million Coast Guard adventure that will serve as counter-programming towards an animated sequel, a comedy spoof, and a Western action flick. Now it sounds like the odds are against it. Coming so soon after the big-budget flop 'In the Heart of the Sea', another disaster drama set somewhere in the open ocean, will mute its grosses a bit, and strong casts don't always guarantee strong numbers. Also, its target audience will be split between strong holdovers such as '13 Hours', 'The Revenant', 'The Hateful Eight', and 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'. So basically, Disney is going to have to rely on its animated films, sequels, Marvel and Star Wars movies to gain its money.
Predicted Opening: $7 million
Predicted Total: $24 million

Jane Got a Gun

Now, if you look at the title you might think this is going to be like a Western comedy. Well folks, it's the complete opposite. Apparently, 'Jane' will be a gritty action drama featuring a bunch of well-known and respected actors and actresses. But like I said for 'The Finest Hours', a strong cast doesn't mean it will be successful. It just gives a reason to be successful. Aside from Tarantino's films and 'True Grit', Westerns haven't been doing too well recently ('Cowboys & Aliens' and 'The Lone Ranger' flopped). So to think that this will outmaneuver those films would be completely out of the question.
Predicted Opening: $4.5 million
Predicted Total: $11 million

Kung Fu Panda 3

Following the underwhelming performance of the first sequel, 'Kung Fu Panda 3' waits a whopping 5 years to get audiences interested in it again. I mean, sure it has no animated competition until 'Zootopia' in March, and animated films that open in late January or early February generally tend to open strong, but this is an abnormally long time to distance an animated sequel to its predecessor ('Toy Story 3' was a Pixar movie, so...). The drop-off from the first to the sequel is obviously a sign that domestic audiences are quickly losing interest in the franchise. Although it should be a much smaller drop this time, 'Panda' will likely decline in domestic grosses once again.
Predicted Opening: $40.5 million
Predicted Total: $152 million