Weekend Estimates: September Box Office Revived by 'The Visit' and 'The Perfect Guy'

     Audiences went for the thrills this weekend, allowing the new releases 'The Perfect Guy' and 'The Visit' to significantly exceed expectations with $25m+ openings. Meanwhile, faith-based drama film '90 Minutes in Heaven' debuted modestly in 878 locations.
     'The Perfect Guy' solidly opened in first place this weekend, taking in an estimated $26.7 million. The $12-million PG-13 romance thriller demolished pre-release projections, which ranged from $13 million to $21 million. 'Perfect Guy' began with $9.95 million on Friday, increased 5% on Saturday to earn $10.45 million, and is expected to decline a sizeable 39.7% on Sunday and making $6.3 million. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.68-to-1, which is a pretty good sign going forward. However, last September's similar PG-13 rated thriller 'No Good Deed' had a 2.76-to-1 ratio and that opening accounted for a very front-loaded 46.2% of its total gross. Still, with a budget of just $12 million, Sony should consider this a success after a long year of flops and misfires, although it did rebound a bit with 'War Room' a couple weeks ago. 'Perfect Guy' may have also benefited from strong word-of-mouth ('A-' on CinemaScore), although reviews aren't as enthusiastic (31% on Rotten Tomatoes). If 'Perfect Guy' can hold up like another similar movie, 2009's 'Obsessed', it will wind up with around an excellent $63 million.
     In a close second place, M. Night Shyamalan's latest film 'The Visit' also destroyed expectations, which tended to range from $12 million to $17 million. The $5-million PG-13 horror comedy grossed $25.69 million, just $1.01 million away from the top spot. 'Visit' started out with $9.2 million on Friday, up a very encouraging 15.2% on Saturday and grossing $10.6 million, and is estimated to decline a pretty big 44.9% on Sunday to earn $5.9 million, putting the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a very promising 2.79-to-1. That makes it all the more impressive as the horror genre tends to be very front-loaded (this year's 'Insidious Chapter 3', for example, had a weekend ratio of just 2.16-to-1). If 'Visit' manages to hold up well in the coming weeks, which may prove difficult, a total north of $60 million should be likely. A more realistic projection would be a finish of around $55 million, which would still be a solid take. Universal has been having a great, great year so far, with hits like 'Furious 7', 'Pitch Perfect 2', 'Jurassic World', 'Straight Outta Compton', and now 'The Visit'.

     Last weekend's champion 'War Room' was pushed down to third place this weekend, but still took in an exceptional $7.4 million, down just 21.9% from last weekend. What's even more impressive is that it held up well after Labor Day, which inflated films' grosses a bit. Riding on a wave of good word-of-mouth (90% Flixter score), the $3-million Christian-based drama from Sony has amassed $39.2 million, and at this rate, getting to $50 million should be no problem at all.
     'A Walk in the Woods', an R-rated comedy adapted from the book and starring Robert Redford and Nick Nolte, was down a respectable 44% from its opening, drawing in $4.6 million. 'Woods' continues to be ahead of expectations, with $19.9 million in the bank so far and a lock for $26 million.
     'Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation' continued to experience great holds as it was down just 42.6% from its sixth weekend, earning $4.2 million. The $150-million spy action film from Paramount has made a solid $188.2 million so far, due in part to great reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth (90% Flixter score). 'Rogue Nation' should get past $193 million, and if it has enough gas left in the tank, $200 million could be a possibility as well.
     Late summer hit 'Straight Outta Compton' took sixth this weekend with $4.1 million, down 52.7%. The front-loaded $28-million F. Gary Gray directed rap drama from Universal has been making very good money with $155.7 million, and getting to $165 million should be pretty easy.
     'No Escape' continued to hold up well, making $2.9 million and down 47.4%. The $5-million Owen Wilson led international thriller has grossed an excellent $24.2 million, and if it can keep holding up well, $30 million is in its sights.
     $22-million franchise reboot 'The Transporter Refueled' kept running out of gas, bringing in just $2.7 million, which was down a very disappointing 63.3% from its debut. The flop should continue to sputter with $13.3 million so far until it has come to a full stop at around $17.5 million.
     '90 Minutes in Heaven' probably would have had a better opening if it hadn't opened so close to 'War Room', but nevertheless it still had a modest debut of about $2.2 million. 'Heaven' cost $5 million, and with a great weekend-to-Friday ratio (2.89-to-1), $7 million is a possibility.
     Spanish language animated film 'Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos' was down 44.5% from last weekend, making $1.9 million. The film has so far made $6.7 million, and $8 million is still a lock.
     'The Man from U.N.C.L.E.' had a decent hold this weekend, dropping 46.1% to earn $1.875 million. However, the $75-million Guy Ritchie directed spy comedy from Warner Bros. and starring Henry Cavill and Armie Hammer has disappointed, bringing in a total of just $43.1 million. With that said, $50 million shouldn't be a problem, but should still be considered a failure.

     Marvel's latest superhero hit 'Ant-Man' grossed $1.6 million, down 43.7%. The $130-million heist comedy starring Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas has so far made an impressive $176.1 million, and should pass the $176.7 million total of 'Captain America: The First Avenger' in the next week or so. After that, $182 million can be seen as a finishing total, which would put it ahead of 'Thor' ($181.03m).
     Because of the stellar debuts of two new PG-13 rated thrillers this weekend, the Top 12 earned a solid $85.8 million, which is up 30.2% from last weekend and up 10.2% from the same point last year. Next week brings us the highly-anticipated dystopian novel-based 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials', Whitey Bulger based crime film 'Black Mass', and the story of the Atlanta hostage hero 'Captive'. In limited release is the thrilling new drama 'Everest', based on the events that occurred in 1996, and 'Sicario', an R-rated crime thriller about an FBI agent tracking down a drug lord at the borders of the US and Mexico.