'Maze Runner' Leads but Doesn't Outrun Predecessor, 'Black Mass' Solid, 'Everest' Hikes Up into the Top 5

     'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' blazed into 3,791 theaters this weekend and took first place on Friday, but failed to make an improvement upon the first 'Maze Runner'. Meanwhile, Johnny Depp's 'Black Mass' debuted nicely, and 'Everest', opening in 546 IMAX theaters only, had a pretty good take as well.
     The second installment in the 'Maze Runner' trilogy, known as 'The Scorch Trials', opened with a solid $11 million on Friday, including the $1.7 million Thursday preview gross. While that shouldn't be considered a failure, it is disappointing in a way as many expected 'Scorch Trials' to significantly outpace its predecessor, with most projections ranging from $40-$50 million. It debuted below the $11.3 million opening of the first 'Maze Runner' and way below the $21.1 million take of 'Insurgent'. While YA sequels tend to be more front-loaded than their predecessors, 'Scorch Trials' should have better legs than those as the first one's opening day accounted for just 34.8% of its opening week
end. Some factors that can contribute to the film underperforming include sour reviews (49% on Rotten Tomatoes) and weaker word-of-mouth ('B+' Cinemascore compared to the first one's 'A-'). A weekend of around $28 million should be likely.

     'Black Mass' brought Johnny Depp back on track with $8.8 million, including $1.4 million from Thursday. The $53-million crime thriller represents Depp's highest opening in a lead role since the $215-million flop 'The Lone Ranger', which brought in just $10.6 million on Friday. It debuted ahead of most expectations, which ranged from $20-25 million. It debuted ahead of 'The Departed''s $8.7 million take as well as 'The Town''s $8.3 million opening. Those films had openings north of $23 million, and it wouldn't be surprising if 'Black Mass' could replicate that holding power. An opening weekend of $26 million should be a lock.
     M. Night Shyamalan's 'The Visit' plummeted 61.2% from opening day and grossed $3.6 million. That drop is almost in line with 'Devil''s 55.8% decline. However, the horror comedy has been a massive success thus far, and with an outstanding $34.6 million in the bank, a second weekend of around $11 million is likely.
     'The Perfect Guy' suffered the worst drop, falling 69.5% to earn $3.03 million, which is similar to 'No Good Deed''s decline (-66.5%). The romance thriller has so far taken in a stellar $34.7 million against a $12-million budget, and a second weekend of $10 million is a lock.

     'Everest' climbed into the Top 5 on Friday, taking in a solid $2.3 million. The $55-million thriller based on the 1996 disaster debuted in 546 IMAX-only locations, making its debut all the more impressive. The only good comparison here is 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocal', which opened to $4.1 million in 425 locations (300 of which were IMAX) and went on to earn $12.8 million. If 'Everest' follows that pattern, it will end up with a strong $7 million debut.
     Opening in eighth place, the third faith-based film 'Captive' debuted to a modest $647k in 806 locations. The $2-million crime drama-thriller based on the true events of an Atlanta hostage situation debuted below last weekend's '90 Minutes in Heaven', which took in $759k on its opening day. $1.5 million and up is likely.
     Playing in 6 locations, 'Sicario' opened with a very strong $134k, averaging $22,333 per theater. It will likely earn over $350k for the weekend. 'Sicario' expands nationwide on September 25, 2015.

Weekend Prediction

1. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $28.6 million

2. 'Black Mass' - $26.4 million

3. 'The Visit' - $10.8 million (-57.5%)

4. 'The Perfect Guy' - $10 million (-61.4%)

5. 'Everest' - $7.1 million

-   'Captive' - $1.7 million