Monday Report: 'Star Wars' Has Record-Breaking Monday Following Strong Hold

     Usually, I only publish forecasts, Thursday/Friday reports, and weekend reports, but the historic grosses that came in yesterday are not to go unnoticed. As you may have guessed, this article will mostly center around 'Star Wars', which had a record-breaking $248 million weekend and followed it up with a very strong performance on Monday.
     'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' took in a record $40.1 million yesterday, beating 'Spider-Man 2' for the biggest Monday gross ever. It is also much higher than the $25.3 million take of 'Jurassic World' on its first Monday. Its performance was down a very solid 33.8%, which is way stronger than 'Marvel's The Avengers' (-66.9%/$18.9m) and 'Jurassic World' (-55.7%/$25.3m). However, those films opened in the summer while 'Star Wars' has the advantage of a mid-December release. Still, its $288.1 million total is nothing to be ashamed about, breaking the record for the fastest film to gross $250 million (4 days compared to 'Jurassic World''s 5 days). Look for it to pass $300 million and $350 million in record time throughout the week, and should be on pace for a very strong second outing.
     In a distant second place, 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' claimed second place with $2.95 million, down 33.4%. The $90-million family comedy from Fox has so far taken in a solid total of $17.2 million, which lags its predecessor by 33.8%. It should continue to hold up well throughout the week and going into its second weekend.
     'Sisters' placed in third on Monday, grossing $2.5 million and declining 38.5%. Solid reviews and word-of-mouth as well as the holiday season should help 'Sisters' maintain steady grosses going forward, as the $30-million comedy has so far made $16.5 million, which is 11.3% behind the pace of 'Baby Mama'.
     Fourth place belonged to 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2', which earned $1.2 million. That is down only 34.9% from Sunday's performance, representing one of the film's more respectable holds. The $160-million action film has made a solid-but-underwhelming $255.7 million in 32 days.
     On its 27th day, Pixar's $200-million kid pic 'The Good Dinosaur' fell 21.4% for a $1.1 million gross. Although the holiday season is stabilizing its holding power, 'Good Dinosaur' still hasn't cracked the $100 million mark with just $97.8 million. It will accomplish that goal either tomorrow or the following day.

Weekend Actuals: 'Star Wars' Obliterates Opening Weekend Record with $248m Debut

     History was made this weekend when 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' claimed the biggest opening weekend gross from December 18-20, 2015, grabbing a record-breaking $248 million. Meanwhile, the other two new wide releases provided strong counter-programming as the holdovers experienced sharp declines (unsurprisingly).

     Obviously taking the #1 spot, 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' collected a record-shattering $248 million in its debut for an astounding $59,982 per-theater average. That is nearly $10 million higher than initial estimates pegged it to be due to its stronger-than-expected hold on Sunday. It easily beat 'Jurassic World' for the biggest opening domestically and for the biggest per-theater average. It was pretty clear that 'Star Wars' was going to break those records months before it even came out, but no one expected an opening this high. With the unparalleled hype surrounding the film, absolutely glowing critical reviews, solid marketing, and great word-of-mouth, taking the opening weekend record was like a piece of cake.

     'Star Wars' easily knocked out 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' for the biggest December opening in just one day. In fact, it's already earned about 82% of that movie's final gross ($303m). It began breaking records once the trailers came out, and even more so when tickets became available. 'Force Awakens' also compares favorably to previous record-holders (and fellow $200m+ openers) 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($207.4m) and 'Jurassic World' ($208.8m). What's even more impressive is that those movies came out in the summer, while 'Star Wars' came out in December, where no movie before it crossed $100 million in their first three days. The fact that this movie was a sequel to the original trilogy opposed to a prequel (those movies aren't remembered too fondly) helped a lot, assuring audiences that the beloved original cast will return alongside the new one. Some records the film broke include the biggest opening for a PG-13 rated film ($248m), biggest holiday opening ($248m), biggest overall weekend for the Top 12 ($305.6m), biggest December weekend for the Top 12 ($305.6m), widest December opening (4,134 theaters), and the biggest IMAX opening domestically ($30.1m).

     Another notable record it broke was the biggest Friday, opening, and single day ever ($119.1m), which included a record $57 million from Thursday previews. However, due to its sizable day-to-day drops over the weekend, it failed to claim the biggest Saturday gross,  held by 'Jurassic World' ($69.6m). Speaking of which, after grossing a record $119.1 million Friday, it declined 42.7% on Saturday to earn $68.3 million and another 11.3% on Sunday to make $60.6 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a very front-loaded 2.08-to-1, which ranks 12th all time. Still, due to its nature as a holiday release, it should hold up much better than the notoriously front-loaded 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2' (which had a ratio below 2-to-1). Add in stellar reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore), this should play very well throughout the holiday season, and there is a possible chance it can dethrone 'Avatar' ($760.5m) for the title of highest-grossing film domestically. It should wind up anywhere in the $745m-$835m, which would make it either the second highest-grossing or the highest-grossing release of all time (domestically). Worldwide, it has claimed first for the biggest global opening of all time with a strong $529 million. Expect a $1.8b+ gross in the near-future.
     In a far, far away second place, 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' brought in a solid $14.3 million. Although it continued the franchise's ongoing declines film to film, it is still a strong gross, especially considering the competition from 'Star Wars'. The $90-million family comedy began with $4.1 million on Friday, increased 38.8% on Saturday to earn $5.7 million, and fell 22.6% on Sunday to make $4.4 million. That would put the ratio at 3.48-to-1, which is a bit better than the last installment's (3.46-to-1). If it follows that movie's patterns, 'Road Chip' should end its run with around $80m despite weak reviews (14% on RT, although word-of-mouth is more positive with 65%).

     In a close third place, 'Sisters', the $30-million R-rated comedy from Universal, reunites Tina Fey and Amy Poehler on the big screen with $13.9 million. That is a bit below 'Baby Mama''s $17.4 million, but is a solid debut nonetheless. With $5 million on Friday, 'Sisters' declined a light 2.4% on Saturday to gross $4.8 million and 15% on Sunday to earn $4.1 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a very solid 2.78-to-1. Should it perform similar to 'Baby Mama', 'Sisters' will close with $45 million. However, because it is a holiday release, it should be a bit more back-loaded with a possible $75 million total.
     As expected, most of the holdovers experienced sharp declines from last weekend. Leading them was 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2'. The $160-million Lionsgate production fell 48.4% and made $5.9 million. 'Mockingjay' has so far earned $254.5 million, which lags its predecessor by 12.1%. $270 million should be a lock by now.
     In fifth place, 'Creed' held on better than expected, dipping 50.5% to $5.0 million. The $35-million boxing drama starring Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone has so far made a solid $87.8 million, and will hope to get past $100 million by the end of its run.
     'The Good Dinosaur' sunk like a stone again, this time plummeting 57.8% and making $4.4 million. The $200-million animated feature will have trouble making back its budget domestically, and it doesn't look like foreign countries are helping much either. With an underwhelming $96.7 million in 26 days, it should look to close at around $125 million.

     'Krampus' fell a respectable 51.1% and scared up an estimated $4.1 million. The $15-million holiday horror has so far brought in a strong $35.1 million and should close with around $45 million. Right behind it is 'In the Heart of the Sea'. If you thought that it could hold up well through the holidays and not be a total disaster, I'm sorry to tell you that you're wrong. The $100-million adventure netted $3.5 million, down a troubling 68.5%. With just $18.6 million thus far, 'Sea' looks to finish with around $25 million domestic. Although Warner Bros. has been having a mostly bad time this year, it should rebound in a big way in 2016 with major releases like 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice', 'Suicide Squad', 'Storks', and 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'.
     Overall, the Top 12 grossed a record-breaking $305.6 million, up a whopping 339.5% from last weekend and an astounding 140.7% from last year when 'The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies' debuted on the lower end of the franchise. This marks the first time in history that the Top 12 alone grossed over $300 million altogether.

     Next weekend is going to be very, very crowded. While 'Star Wars' will of course take the top spot once again, a bunch of films with major stars in them will compete for spots in the Top 5. The bunch includes 'Concussion', a Will Smith led football drama, 'Daddy's Home', a Mark Wahlberg / Will Ferrell led comedy, 'Joy', a Jennifer Lawrence led biopic, and the 'Point Break' remake. There will also be a handful of major limited releases too, such as 'The Hateful Eight', the new western from Quentin Tarantino, and 'The Revenant', another western from the director of last year's hit 'Birdman'. If all of those new releases can avoid disappointing numbers, and if 'Star Wars' and the other films hold up well, then next weekend will be one of the biggest of 2015 and maybe one of the biggest ever.

Friday Report: 'Star Wars' Destroys Opening Day Record with First $100m+ Debut in History

     'Star Wars' just won't stop breaking records. The seventh installment in the series, 'The Force Awakens', easily claimed the biggest single-day launch in history. The $200m sci-fi epic from J. J. Abrams took in an estimated $120.5 million on Friday, beating the previous record-holder 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2' ($91.1m). That included a massive $57 million from Thursday previews, and adjusting for Friday 'proper' (Friday grosses without the Thursday grosses) the film still made a huge $63.5 million. Even more impressive is that 'Star Wars' obliterated 'The Hobbit''s opening weekend ($84.6m) in a single day for the highest-grossing December opening of all time. It is now a forgone conclusion that 'The Force Awakens' will take the opening weekend record from 'Jurassic World' ($208.8m), which opened to $82 million during its release. However, it was a very front-loaded Friday as well, with the Thursday grosses accounting for a whopping 47.3% of Friday's gross, similar to the 47.7% share of 'Harry Potter'. If 'Star Wars' holds up through the weekend like that film, it will have around a 50% drop on Saturday and a 15% drop on Sunday, giving it a $231.96 million opening weekend. Although it should hold up a bit better than that, having a Friday multiplier like that of 'Avengers 2' (2.27x for $273.5m weekend) or 'Jurassic World' (2.55x for $307.3m weekend) may be overestimating its potential. I think that a likely outcome would be a 42% drop on Saturday ($69.9m) and another 8% decrease on Sunday ($64.3m). That would put it a $254.7 million opening weekend, marking the most historic opening in both the franchise's history and cinema's. Even though that would be a very front-loaded weekend (2.11x), it should hold up well throughout the holidays thanks to overwhelmingly positive reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore), and eventually dethrone 'Avatar' ($760.5m domestic/$2.79b worldwide) for the highest-grossing release domestically of all time and probably the highest-grossing release worldwide as well.
     In a very distant (yet solid) second place, Universal's R-rated comedy 'Sisters' brought in an estimated $4.9 million on Friday. That is a bit lower than 'Baby Mama''s $6.4 million Friday, but is at least more than 'This is 40''s $3.7 million opening. 'Sisters' provided good counter-programming against 'Star Wars' for women who aren't as interested into it as the men are or are just waiting out for the crowds to die out (which probably won't happen anytime soon). Since it reunites Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, 'Sisters' should hold up similar to 'Baby Mama', albeit a bit better due to it being a holiday release. Expect a strong $14 million debut, which would beat my $11.5 million prediction.
     In a close third was family comedy 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip'. Being the fourth in its series and the fact that the third film dropped off a sizable amount from its predecessors, many expected another steep decline. While it was off by 38.8%, 'Road Chip' still had a pretty solid $4.1 million opening. It will likely follow the pattern of the third film, which would put it at $14.1 million over the weekend, also beating my prediction (which was $11.9m).
     As expected, the holdovers all fell more than 50% from last Friday due to the added competition of 'Star Wars'. Leading them was, of course, 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' with $1.6 million, off 53.1%. With a $250.3 million total so far, a $5.4 million fifth weekend is likely.
     Rounding out the Top 5 was 'Creed', bringing in $1.4 million and declining 53.3% from last Friday. The $35m boxing drama has took in $84.2 million, and $4.5 million is a likely weekend gross.

Weekend Forecast (Updated)

1. 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' - $254.7 million

2. 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' - $14.1 million

3. 'Sisters' - $14 million

4. 'The Hunger Games Mockingjay -Part 2' - $5.4 million (-52.6%)

5. 'The Good Dinosaur' - $4.9 million (-52.4%)

Thursday Report: 'Star Wars' Shoots Down Record for Thursday Night Showings

     Even though it just came out last night, 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' easily took down 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2' for the biggest Thursday night launch ever. The latter grossed $43.5 million back in 2011 while the former made a huge $57 million. However, 'Deathly Hallows' debuted at midnight, while the earliest showings for 'Star Wars' were at 7 p.m., making it hard to compare these two films. Still, 'Star Wars' is on track to have the biggest opening day launch in cinematic history, and should be the first film to have a $100m+ opening in just one day. That would also break the record for the fastest time a movie breaks $100 million, surpassing 'Jurassic World''s record (2 days). 'Jurassic World' opened to $18.5 million while 'Marvel's The Avengers' had $18.7 million (both former record holders). Those movies had $82 million (JW) and $80.8 million (MTA) opening days, respectively. If 'Star Wars' can follow the patterns of those films, it will wind up with a staggering $245m-$250m opening day. That is a VERY outlandish prediction, and with much bigger grosses 'Star Wars' should be a little more front-loaded than those two. A (slightly) more reasonable projection is an 'Avengers: Age of Ultron'-type of multiplier, which would get it at a still overwhelming $175 million. Unfortunately, 'Star Wars' will have to settle for a 'Harry Potter'-like multiplier, nabbing a mere $120 million opening. That is still a very good opening, and should stabilize over the weekend. I'll get to weekend predictions after Friday estimates show up, but for now, just expect a $235m+ opening weekend.

Weekend Forecast: 'Star Wars' Set to Blast Off with Record Opening

     Remember back when you were a kid, standing in that long line at the movie theater waiting to get to the Star Wars showing? Well, be prepared to relive the experience this weekend, as 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' is set to debut with the largest domestic opening on record, beating the opening of 'Jurassic World' earlier this year. Meanwhile, two comedies targeted at very different audiences will serve as counter-programming towards the blockbuster event.
     Opening in an estimated 3,900 locations, the most anticipated movie of all time, 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' debuts on December 18. Many are saying it will easily take the opening weekend record from 'Jurassic World' ($208.8m), which was only the second film to open over $200 million, after 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($207.4m). Projections are going as high as $230 million, while other predictions are in the $185m-$215m range. Either way, it will have one the biggest openings of all time, and the biggest December debut on record (easily shattering 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey''s $84.6m debut). Costing $200 million to produce, the long-awaited sequel to the beloved original trilogy ($1.01b combined) has very few factors working against it, and a whole lot of factors working for it. Let's take a look at them now, shall we?
     First off, the hype is pretty much unparalleled. Twitter activity is through the roof, with 647,908 tweets just from today alone. It also boasts an impressive 15.7 million likes on Facebook, which is slightly more than what 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' had at the end of July (14.3m) and double the amount 'Jurassic World' has (7.5m). 'Star Wars' has also experienced a phenomenal number of viewers for their trailers, with an astonishing 75.4 million views for the first one, 72.4 million for the second, and 72.6 million for the third. The previews have also received very positive feedback from the viewers, which increases the hype by a lot. Not to mention a stellar +99% want-to-see rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is on par with what 'Avengers' and 'Jurassic World' had at the same point in the days leading up to their release. Speaking of Rotten Tomatoes, 'Star Wars' currently boasts a stellar 94% rating on that website, which is generally in the same level as former record-breaker 'The Dark Knight' (94%) and 'Marvel's The Avengers' (92%) as well as the first two 'Star Wars' films (both 94%). It is miles ahead of 'Jurassic World' (71%) and 'Age of Ultron' (75%). All those films had huge openings in their respective time periods, and this installment is determined to surpass those numbers.
     Another factor is that pretty much every single brand is sponsoring the film. From Covergirl and Lego to coffee mugs and bobbleheads, the 'Star Wars' name is everywhere, letting people of all ages know that the biggest movie event in history is about to come out. It has opened up to many different people, and has overall met great satisfaction from them (all of the originals have 95%+ audience scores on RT, and all have 8.4+ ratings on IMDb). Plus, most of the original cast members are returning (Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, etc.), and all have become more famous then when the first movie came out. The films 'Anchorman 2' ($127.4m) and '42' ($95m) have kept Ford in the business while the critically acclaimed superhero TV series 'The Flash' has special guest appearances from Hamill as the fan-favorite Trickster. With an amazing cast, near-perfect RT score, and out-of-this-world hype, why wouldn't anyone want to see this?
     Maybe the fact that the prequels exist could turn off some viewers. Although they made it big time back when they were released ($431.1m for 'Phantom Menace', $302.2m for 'Attack of the Clones', and $380.3m for 'Revenge of the Sith'), they aren't really remembered in a good way. The highest audience score in the prequel trilogy is the 65% rating of 'Revenge of the Sith'. 'Attack of the Clones' even ventured into "rotten" territory, with a 59% audience satisfaction rating. Long story short, the prequels were received pretty negatively, and at the most very mixed. However, since 'The Force Awakens' promises to be a sequel to the originals, this should only be a small factor. Ultimately, it shouldn't be too unreasonable to expect $225m+ for its three-day take.
     Next up (sorry I went on and on about 'Star Wars', so I'm just going to make this quick), Universal's raunchy R-rated comedy 'Sisters' reunites Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. The last time they starred in a film together was the 2008 hit 'Baby Mama', which opened to $17.4 million and ended with $60.5 million. It could benefit from the fact that 'Star Wars' will possibly attract more male moviegoers then female, leaving the latter to consider watching this film the weekend before Christmas. Reviews are on par with past comedies such as 'The Hangover' (79% on RT) and are better than the first 'Ted' (67% on RT) with a 78% critics score.The only major drawback is that the marketing isn't really pushing it, with only a few ads seen. Still, this was the case with 'The Night Before', and although that opened below expectations it still eked out a solid debut. I expect 'Sisters' to do a bit better than that film's $9.9 million debut, with $10m-$12m in the range of possibilities.

     Arguably the least-anticipated film of the weekend, 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' opens in over 3,600 locations. The fourth film in the franchise is garnering mostly negative reviews (20% on RT) and low anticipation (+83% want-to-see), which is not too good for the family comedy. Still, family audiences didn't really make 'The Peanuts Movie' and 'The Good Dinosaur' break out, so there is at least some room for 'Chipmunks'. Family audiences also might opt for cute, cuddly, talking creatures that sing for the youngsters instead of the sinister look of Kylo Ren and his legion of storm troopers. Reviews didn't really have an impact on previous outings (just look at the last one; it made $133.1m total against a 12% rating). However, it is possible moviegoers are getting tired of the squeaky titular characters, as it is already getting an overwhelmingly negative response from moviegoers. Check out the forum on Rotten Tomatoes; nobody is that excited for the new adventure that has another chipmunk pun in the title. Like I said, negative reception doesn't really do much to these things, so a $9.5m-$12m weekend is very likely.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens' - $227.3 million

2. 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' - $11.9 million

3. 'Sisters' - $11.5 million

4. 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' - $5.8 million (-49.6%)

5. 'The Good Dinosaur' - $5.8 million (-48.7%)

Weekend Actuals: 'In the Heart of the Sea' Drowns While 'Mockingjay' is Still Winning

     On the worst weekend after the post-Thanksgiving weekend since 1998, 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' took the top spot for the fourth week in a row. Meanwhile, 'In the Heart of the Sea' once again continued Warner Bros.' string of big-budget disappointments.

     Being the second 'Hunger Games' film to do so and the first one since 'Furious 7' back in April, 'Mockingjay - Part 2' lead the weekend for the fourth time, dropping just 39.5% from last weekend and making $11.4 million. In comparison, 'Mockingjay - Part 1' fell 42.4% to make $12.7 million. The $160-million final installment has now earned a solid, yet softer-than-expected, $244.6 million in 24 days, and $290 million is still reachable.
     In second place, the $100-million Chris Hemsworth led adventure 'In the Heart of the Sea' hunted down a meager $11.1 million, representing a $3,562 per-theater average. Prospects never looked good for 'Sea', but ultimately mixed reviews, unimpressive word-of-mouth, and the hype that has built around next week's 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' caused this film to come crashing down. Among Ron Howard openers, it performed much in line with 2013's 'Rush', another Chris Hemsworth starrer that fell below expectations. That film opened with $10 million coming off of a fairly strong limited release debut. 'Rush' topped off with $26.9 million, although that film opened in October instead of more towards the holiday season. This $11.1 million opening is 53.9% off the $24.1 million debut of last year's 'Exodus: Gods and Kings', another big-budget December misfire from a well-known director and a well-known lead. Speaking of which, Chris Hemsworth isn't exactly one would call a box-office draw. He stumbled with the previously mentioned 'Rush' and last January's 'Blackhat' ($3.9m opening/$8m finish), further ensuring that he isn't a guaranteed draw outside of the Marvel films.
     Opening with $3.8 million on Friday, 'Sea' was up 12.5% to gross $4.3 million, and declined 33.3% for $2.9 million on Sunday. With a 2.92-to-1 weekend-to-Friday ratio, there is some promise for the adventure, but with 'Star Wars' opening next weekend and a very competitive marketplace even after that, it should fall off pretty quickly. Plus, reviews (42% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('B+' CinemaScore) aren't that great. If it plays like 'Rush', it will end up with $30 million, and if it could hold up better $40 million shouldn't be out of the question.
     Pixar's $200-million 'The Good Dinosaur' mustered $10.3 million this weekend, dropping 32.7%. That is a typical hold for an animated offering after the post-Thanksgiving weekend. Still, 'Good Dinosaur' is underwhelming very much with only $89.5 million, and with 'Star Wars' AND 'Alvin and the Chipmunks' opening next weekend, it should be expected that the film will take another steep drop. $160 million is still in the realm of possibilities, or at least for now.
     'Creed' continues to gain momentum, as it eased a light 32.5% for a $10.1 million weekend take. The $35-million boxing drama/franchise revival has so far made a very strong $79.3 million, and $105 million should be no problem by now.
     Again exceeding expectations, holiday horror comedy 'Krampus' experienced a very strong hold for a horror film, falling 48.3% for $8.4 million. With $28.6 million already, the $15-million horror should continue to hold up well throughout the holiday season and top off with around $45 million.
     'The Night Before' took in $4.1 million (-17.8%) this weekend as 'Spectre' continues holding up well with $4.1 million (-26.8%). Respective grosses stand at $38.4 million for 'Night Before' (projected $45m finish). and $190.8 million for 'Spectre' (projected $200m finish)
     'The Peanuts Movie' stabilized nicely in its sixth weekend, dropping just 24.8% and making $2.7 million. The $99-million animated comedy from Fox so far has a $125 million cume, and $135 million is a lock.
     Oscar darlings 'Spotlight' and 'Brooklyn' continue to maintain steady grosses, as the former made $2.5 million (-10.4%) and the latter earned $2 million (-18.2%). 'Spotlight''s cume now stands at $20.3 million, and 'Brooklyn' is currently at $14.4 million.
     Overall, the Top 12 ($69.5 million combined) was down a disappointing 22.7% from last weekend and off 8.7% from last year when 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' flopped in first.
     Next weekend shows the very, very, very anticipated arrival of 'Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens', the first live-action 'Star Wars' film in 10 years. BoxOffice magazine currently projects a $223 million weekend while Disney itself is looking at a $180 million weekend. Deadline.com is predicting $185m-$210m. Many are thinking that 'Star Wars' will steal the opening weekend record from 'Jurassic World' ($208.8m), while others think it will come in third or fourth place on the charts. The two other wide releases are 'Sisters', the Tina Fey/Amy Poehler led comedy, and 'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip', the modestly-anticipated family sequel whose projected grosses are climbing every week.

Weekend Estimates: 'Mockingjay' Holds on to First While 'Krampus' Scares Up a Merry Debut

     On one of the best post-Thanksgiving weekends in history, 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' held on to first despite suffering the second-worst third weekend drop of the franchise as the low-budget Christmas horror comedy 'Krampus' thrilled with a better-than-expected opening.

     Claiming first place for the third week in a row, the $160-million Jennifer Lawrence led 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2' fell a whopping 64.2% from its second weekend ($52m) to gross $18.6 million. After experiencing the first sub-50% drop of the franchise, 'Part 2' returned to the typical week-to-week drops of the series. Still, with a healthy $227.1 million as of December 6, 2015, this is hardly a failure. A disappointment, yes, but not a failure. Expect a finish of around $270 million for the franchise finale.
     Second place was also owned by a strong competitor, this time in the form of 'Krampus', the $15-million Christmas horror comedy from Universal. It grossed an estimated $16 million from 2,902 locations for a $5,520 per-theater average, which is the best PTA for any nationwide release this weekend. A number of factors could have contributed to 'Krampus''s unexpected opening, due largely to the fact that Universal was offering a unique event at the movies this weekend that is usually rarely seen. Christmas horrors aren't that common, and Christmas films in general tend to do well when they're released in November (look at 'Night Before' and 'Love the Coopers'). However, treating audiences with this type of film is an unexpectedly smart move, giving them a fresh take on the genre while avoiding the "been-there, done-that" feel typically produced in horror films. Reviews are also above-average for 'Krampus', with a decent 64% score. Word-of-mouth is also a bit better than recent scary films, as a 'B-' CinemaScore and a 67% Flixter score are pretty much unheard of for this genre. Michael Dougherty could have also been a reason, albeit a small one, that this film performed so well. 'Krampus' is coming off of the widely-liked Halloween horror 'Trick 'r Treat', which was very well received from critics and audiences alike. That movie went straight-to-video, and became an instant cult hit. Its recognition could have helped boost weekend grosses, as the fanbase for the director is pretty loyal.

     'Krampus' started out on Friday with $6 million, which actually put it in first place that day. It increased 9.7% on Saturday to earn $6.6 million and should fall 48.1% on Sunday to make $3.4 million. This puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.67-to-1, again exceeding the standard level for horror movies. With decent reviews and word-of-mouth, as well as its nature as a holiday film, 'Krampus' should hold up relatively well in the coming weeks. $40 million and up would be a likely finish for the low-budget hit.

     Coming off of its solid $29.6 million debut and its $42.1 million five-day opening, 'Creed' barely beat 'The Good Dinosaur' for third place this weekend. The $35-million boxing drama declined 47.6% from last weekend, which is among the better holds of the nationwide releases, and grossed $15.54 million. Since opening last Wednesday, 'Creed' has grossed a very strong $65.1 million and should continue to hold up well throughout the holiday season. $100 million is still a reasonable possibility, making it the fourth 'Rocky' film to do so and putting it ahead of the likes of 'Rocky II' ($85.2m), 'Rocky V' ($40.9m), and 'Rocky Balboa' ($70.3m).

     Dropping a ghastly 60.4% from its $39.2 million weekend, Pixar's 'The Good Dinsosaur' continued to run way below Pixar movie standards. That drop ranks as the worst second-weekend drop for a Pixar film, slightly worse than the 60.3% decline of 'Cars 2' in 2011. It made $15.51 million this weekend, below the $21.6 million weekend of 'Tangled', which wasn't even a Pixar film. With an underwhelming $76 million cume so far, making back its $200 million budget domestically is going to be a really tough challenge. Topping out at $130 million would be, for lack of a better word, pathetic, but it should get at least $145 million in before it disappears from theaters. Still, that would make it the lowest-grossing Pixar film ever released, and that isn't something to be happy about.
     In a distant fifth place, 'Spectre' added $5.4 million, down 57.9%, for a $184.5 million cume. The $245-million spy action film starring Daniel Craig should be able to reach $190 million for its domestic final.
     'The Night Before', the $25-million R-rated Xmas comedy starring Seth Rogen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Anthony Mackie, made $4.9 million this weekend, representing a 41.3% decline from last weekend's grosses. 'Night Before' has so far made a strong $32 million, and should get to $40 million by the end of its run.
     'Good Dinosaur' wasn't the only animated film to take a massive hit this weekend. 'The Peanuts Movie' plummeted 63.8% for $3.5 million. As front-loaded as it is, 'Peanuts' has now grossed a solid $121.4 million domestic, and should close with around $135 million.
     'Spotlight' was down 33.6% and earned $2.9 million. The strongly-cast drama is approaching its production budget at a respectable speed, with $16.6 million so far. If it plays like 'Birdman', it will gross $30 million when its done playing.
     'Brooklyn' declined 38.4% for $2.4 million. The period romance drama has so far made a very strong $11.2 million due in part to glowing reviews and audience reception.
     The Top 12 this year made an estimated $90 million altogether, down 48.1% from last weekend (a typical hold for post-Thanksgiving) and up 28.1% from last year when 'Mockingjay - Part 1' also three-peated.
     Next weekend sees the release of the Chris Hemsworth led adventure thriller 'In the Heart of the Sea', based on the story that inspired Moby Dick, and the nationwide expansion of the crime film 'Legend' after its respectable run in limited release as well as the limited release of 'The Big Short'.