Weekend Actuals: 'Star Wars' Falls but Still Leads, 'Revenant' Breaks Out, 'Forest' Thrills

     'Star Wars' took the lead once again, but it wasn't the only film to do solid business this weekend. 'The Revenant' expanded from its limited run in four locations and met great success while the PG-13 horror 'The Forest' held on better through the weekend than expected.
     Obviously 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' took first with an estimated $42.4 million, down a rather sharp 53.1% from its $90.2 million third weekend. That's steeper than December releases 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' (-49.6%) and 'I Am Legend' (-42.7%) and even worse than summer blockbusters 'Jurassic World' (-46.4%) and 'Marvel's The Avengers' (-34.1%). Still, 'Star Wars' has brought in a very impressive, record-breaking $812.7 million total, making it the first time that a film crossed the $800 million milestone domestically (not adjusting for inflation, of course). On the adjusted-for-inflation chart, it ranks a very strong 15th (past the adjusted gross of  'Return of the Jedi'). If the $200-million sci-fi mega-blockbuster can find a way to stabilize nicely in the coming weeks, then $900 million should be in reach. However, just to be safe, I'm going to go with a $860 million cume.
     In a stronger-than-expected second place, the $135-million Western thriller 'The Revenant' grossed a spectacular $39.8 million in its nationwide expansion (for a $11.8k average from 3,375 locations). While that is below DiCaprio's other successes like 'Shutter Island' ($41.1m) and 'The Great Gatsby' ($50.1m), both of which straight into wide release, it is at least above 'Django Unchained' ($30.1m) and 'Lone Survivor' ($37.8m). One major drawing factor is Leonardo DiCaprio's star power, as (excluding 'J. Edgar') all his films after 'Shutter Island' earned well over $100 million domestically. Another is the presence of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who directed the 2014 sleeper hit 'Birdman' ($42.3m). While he isn't a household name yet, Inarritu is certainly a recognizable person due to the previously mentioned film's success. Strong reviews shouldn't be looked over either, as it currently sits at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. Flixter audiences seem to enjoy it, giving it a solid 87% score. However, CinemaScore users are a bit less generous, awarding it a so-so 'B+' compared to the 'A+' scores of 'Lone Survivor' and 'American Sniper'.
     'Revenant' started out on Friday with $14.4 million, increased 6.4% on Saturday to earn $15.3 million, and fell 33.2% on Sunday to gross $10.2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio of 2.76-to-1 is a lot better than the 2.63-to-1 ratio of 'Lone Survivor', which suggests it will probably have better holding power throughout its run. With the likelihood of 'Revenant' holding up much better than 'Shutter Island' but a bit more front-loaded than 'Django', a total of around $160 million is a lock.
     Down one spot from last weekend, 'Daddy's Home' faced its worst drop yet with a 48.6% decrease and a $15 million weekend take. The $50-million comedy has been holding up fairly well against its negative reviews (31% RT score) and decent word-of-mouth (60% Flixter rating) with a much-better-than-expected $116.3 million in 3 weeks of play. Look for a finish of $155 million.
     In fourth was the $10-million PG-13 Natalie Dormer led 'The Forest', which brought in a solid $12.7 million from 2,451 locations. It held on better through the weekend than I predicted, which in turn brought in a debut closer to last year's 'The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death' ($15m). Although it continued the declining opening grosses of past early December horrors, this is a strong opening nevertheless considering it wasn't a sequel ('Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones' and 'Woman in Black') or remake ('Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D').

     Starting out with $5 million on Friday, 'Forest' increased 4.5% on Saturday for $5.2 million and dipped 50.5% on Sunday to gross $2.6 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio (2.54-to-1) is actually a lot stronger than previous horror films. This is especially surprising, given that it has so far garnered awful reviews (11% on RT) and horrible word-of-mouth (33% on Flixter, although that is typical for a horror flick). This should turn into a minor profit in the long run, possibly looking at anywhere from $24 million to $33 million.
     'Sisters' had one of the more smaller drops of the holdovers, falling 43.7% to $7.2 million. The $30-million R-rated comedy has so far amassed a very solid $74.9 million, and $85 million is still in reach.
     'The Hateful Eight' and 'The Big Short' claimed sixth and seventh place for the weekend. 'Hateful Eight' grossed a bit more, but fell a lot harder. Plummeting 59.2% and making $6.4 million, the Quentin Tarantino directed $44-million Western continues to run well below pre-release expectations with a modest $41.5 million in 17 days. A $55 million finish seems likely, but as for 'Big Short', it looks to fare a lot better. The $28-million comedy-drama based on the 2007-2008 financial crisis fell 31.9% (it probably would've done a lot better if it weren't for 'Revenant') and made $6.2 million. Showing little sign of slowing down, 'Big Short' has now taken in $42.7 million since opening on December 11. It should close in the range of $65m-$70m.

     'Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip' and 'Joy' had troublesome drops from last weekend. 'Alvin' fell 52.8% ($5.7m) and 'Joy' dropped 56.2% ($4.5m). 'Alvin' has so far took in $75.8 million and 'Joy''s cume stands at $46.5 million. 'Alvin' should finish with around $90 million total while 'Joy' will have to settle for a $65 million cume, barely crawling past its $60-million production budget.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend totaled an impressive $147.2 million, down 28.7% from the weekend of the New Year but up 33.6% from last year when 'Taken 3' opened.
     Next weekend will be a lot more busy, with not one, not two, but three new wide releases opening against the holdovers as well as each other. They include the comedy sequel 'Ride Along 2', the Michael Bay directed war film '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi', and the animated family offering 'Norm of the North'.