Weekend Estimates: Huge Storm Hinders Box Office Grosses While 'Revenant' Comes Out on Top

     After Winter Storm Jonas caused many theaters to close on the East Coast, the weekend box office was down a sizable percentage from last weekend and last year. However, it did give 'Revenant' a chance to claim the weekend crown. Meanwhile, the three new wide releases this weekend were pretty modest, all of them opening in line with expectations.

     In first place, the $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio led Western thriller 'The Revenant' took in $16 million. That's a 49.6% decrease from last weekend, although the aforementioned storm probably held its grosses back (same for many of the other films this weekend). 'Revenant' has been riding on a wave of positive reviews (82% on RT) and word-of-mouth (86% on Flixter) as well as the buzz about its impressive 12 Oscar nominations (including Best Picture). With $119.2 million in the bank so far, 'Revenant' should top out at around $155 million. Overseas, it passed the $100 million mark and has now grossed over $220 million worldwide.

     'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' was up one spot, making $14.1 million and declining 46.6%. The $200-million J. J. Abrams directed sci-fi epic has amassed an astonishing and record-breaking $879.1 million in just six weeks of play. Don't be surprised if the franchise revival makes it to $915 million before the end of its run. Worldwide, the cume now stands at a terrific $1.94 billion, third on the all-time chart (it passed 'Jurassic World' to become the fourth biggest film overseas).

     'Ride Along 2' was expected to have a second weekend drop in line with its predecessor (-48.7%), but instead played like a typical Tim Story sequel and fell 64.7% to $12.5 million. That is in line with the Tim Story's franchise seconds like 'Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer' (-65.5%/$20m) and 'Think Like a Man Too' (-64.7%/$10.3m). 'Ride Along' was also only a bit better than 'Ted 2' (-66.7%/$11.2m) and worse than 'Pitch Perfect 2' (-55.5%$30.8m). Still, it should turn into a profit for Universal as it has currently earned $59.1 million domestically (compared to the $75.5m 10-day take of the first 'Ride Along'). 'Ride Along 2' should now finish with around $80 million.
     Leading the newcomers was the low-budget R-rated comedy 'Dirty Grandpa', which collected $11.1 million for a $3.8k per-theater average. Unfortunately, the starpower of Robert De Niro and Zac Efron, who aren't exactly guaranteed box office draws anymore, couldn't help 'Grandpa' break out among the crowded marketplace. It opened below De Niro's other most recent film 'The Intern' (which co-starred Anne Hathaway and earned $17.7m) and a little bit above Efron's 'That Awkward Moment' (co-starring Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan and debuted with $8.7m).
     'Dirty Grandpa' opened with $4.3 million on Friday (including $660k from Thursday night), experienced an uptick of 4% on Saturday and grossed $4.5 million, and fell 47.5% on Sunday to the tune of $2.3 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.58-to-1, which is better than 'Moment' (2.18-to-1) but below the 2.85-to-1 ratio of 'The Intern'. With terrible reviews (7% on RT) and mixed word-of-mouth ('B' CinemaScore), a $35 million finish is likely.
     The $10-million "living doll" horror from STX Entertainment 'The Boy' opened with a solid $10.8 million for a $4k average. Although it did open a bit below 'The Forest' ($12.7m), which opened two weeks ago, it is still a nice rebound for STX after 'The Secret in their Eyes' disappointed in November with just $6.7 million following an impressive first outing with 'The Gift' ($11.9m opening). Surprisingly, it was one of the more back-loaded new releases of the weekend, which is kind of odd considering the storm and general genre performance.

     Beginning with $3.8 million on Friday, 'The Boy' increased an encouraging 19.9% on Saturday to make $4.6 million and dropped 47.7% to earn $2.4 million. That places the ratio at 2.84-to-1, which is actually better than 'The Forest' (2.54-to-1) and 'Annabelle' (2.39-to-1). It's unlikely to have 'Gift'-type legs, or even 'Secret', but it should do better than the two previously mentioned horror flicks. It should follow a pattern similar to last June's 'Insidious Chapter 3', which would get it to a pretty nice $25 million grand total. However, due to worse reviews (29% on RT) and word-of-mouth (53% Flixter score), a $22 million finish seems more likely.

     In a disappointing sixth place, the $38-million YA-adapted sci-fi action film 'The Fifth Wave' debuted softly with an estimated $10.3 million. That is way less than half of what 'Ender's Game' earned in 2013 ($27m), and is even below 2008's 'The Spiderwick Chronicles' ($19m). It was at least on par with the likes of 'The Giver' ($12.3m) and 'The Host' ($10.6m), though that's not saying much. However, it is doing much better overseas, so it should gain traction there.
     'Fifth Wave' opened on Friday with $3.5 million, increased 24.8% on Saturday to gross $4.4 million, and declined 43% on Sunday for a $2.5 million take. That is a rather impressive 2.94-to-1 ratio, better than 'The Host' (2-to-1), 'The Maze Runner' (2.88-to-1), 'Ender's Game' (2.76-to-1), and 'The Giver' (2.56-to-1). This is an even stranger outcome than 'The Boy', as it is a January release and an admittedly badly-marketed YA adaptation with not-so-cheery reviews (18% RT rating) and abysmal audience reception (52% Flixter score). However, when it comes to long-term prospects, YA films that perform like this are fairly hard to predict. It's most likely to fail to get a 3x weekend multiplier, but it should hold up better than 'Host' and 'Ender's Game'. $28 million should be passed before the end of its run.
     '13 Hours' enjoyed one of the better holds of the weekend, pulling in $9 million that represents a 44.2% drop from its opening. Strong word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore' and 88% Flixter rating) continues to overcome modest reviews (60% on RT) and some controversy that pops up here and there. With $32.8 million so far, '13 Hours' should close with around $45 million.
    'Daddy's Home' ($4.9m/-48.3%) and 'Norm of the North' ($3.8m/-44.1%) occupied eighth and ninth place this weekend. The latter experienced a solid hold following a mediocre-at-best debut. 'Daddy's Home' has so far grossed $138.5 million and should be able to reach $150 million while 'Norm' has brought in $14 million and is looking at a $20 million domestic cume.
     With glowing reviews, outstanding word-of-mouth, and five Academy Award nominations, 'The Big Short' continued to hold up well despite the massive storm. Dipping just 40.1%, the $28-million comedy/drama raked in $3.2 million, adding up to a $56.4 million total. 'Big Short' will likely stick around in theaters for a while, and $65 million definitely isn't out of the question.
     The Top 12 this weekend was heavily affected by Winter Storm Jonas, barely missing the $100-million mark and making $99.2 million (-34.4% from last weekend). The Top 12 gross was also off 29.8% from last year when 'American Sniper' continued to dominate with monster grosses.
     Next week sees the releases of a big-budget animated three-quel, otherwise known as the Jack Black led 'Kung Fu Panda 3', a risky box office bet led by a stellar cast called 'The Finest Hours', and a comedy spoof on last February's massive hit 'Fifty Shades of Grey', this time called 'Fifty Shades of Black'. So in other words, next weekend is definitely going to be a lot more interesting (hopefully).