Weekend Report: 'Pets' and 'Ghostbusters' Slime the Box Office

     It was a fairly busy weekend at the box office this weekend, with last weekend's record-breaker 'The Secret Life of Pets' repeating on top while Sony's much talked-about 'Ghostbusters' reboot also brought up some solid figures.
     Leading the weekend for the second time in a row, Universal / Illumination's $75-million animated blockbuster 'The Secret Life of Pets' dipped 51.3% to gross $50.8 million. While that drop is a bit worse than 'Finding Dory''s (-46%), 'Despicable Me' (-41.8%), and 'Despicable Me 2' (-47.4%), it is an improvement over the studio's last outing, 'Minions' (-57.4%), which already had a built-in brand working in its favor. So far, 'Pets' has grossed a stellar $203.4 million in just two weeks of plays and can possibly exceed March's 'Zootopia' ($341.1m) to become the highest-grossing original film of the year and second biggest animated film behind only 'Finding Dory' (which also had a lot more going for it).
     Though it had to settle for second place, Sony's $144-million female ensemble led 'Ghostbusters' reboot was no slouch. Opening to $46.0 million for a respectable $11.6k per-theater average, the film debuted right alongside expectations, which tended to range anywhere from $40 million to $55 million. Obviously, it posted the biggest opening weekend launch for director Paul Fieg and stars Melissa McCarthy and Kristen Wiig. It did a lot better than past big-budget sci-fi reboots from Sony such as 'Total Recall' ($25.6m) and 'RoboCop' ($21.7m) and nearly doubled the opening of last year's 'Pixels' ($24m). It also beat both the original and adjusted opening weekend of the first 'Ghostbusters', which was released over 30 years ago.

     Among Fieg / McCarthy collaborations, it debuted well above 'Bridesmaids' ($26.2m), 'The Heat' ($39.1m), and 'Spy' ($29.1m), though all of them played in fewer theaters. Compared to some other of McCarthy's films, it bested this year's 'The Boss' ($23.6m), 'Tammy' ($21.6m), and 'Identity Thief' ($34.6m). It is the second best opening for a live-action film starring Kristen Wiig, behind 'The Martian' ($54.3m). Just for the sake of comparisons, it outgrossed 'Red Dawn''s entire theatrical run ($44.8m), bested 'The A-Team' ($25.7m), 'The Dukes of Hazzard' ($30.7m), and 'Mad Max: Fury Road' ($45.4m) and came in below 'Pitch Perfect 2' ($69.2m), '22 Jump Street' ($57.1m), 'The Karate Kid' ($55.7m), and 'Clash of the Titans' ($61.2m).

     The CGI-fueled comedy started out with $17.1 million on Friday (including Thursday's $3.4m), dipped a miniscule 4.3% on Saturday for $16.4 million, and fell a further 23.8% on Sunday to gross $12.5 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is a so-so 2.69-to-1. Now it's time for figuring out how well it will hold up. If it plays like 'Bridesmaids' (6.45x), 'The Heat' (4.08x), or 'Spy' (3.81x), 'Ghostbusters' will reach nearly $300m, nearly $190 million, and over $175 million. Though its reviews are nothing to laugh at (73% "Certified Fresh" score on RT), word-of-mouth is much more mixed with a 57% Flixter score and a modest 'B+' CinemaScore, so those outcomes aren't that likely. Compared to other big-budget films with similar word-of-mouth such as 'Clash of the Titans', 'RoboCop', 'The A-Team', and 'Pixels' a total in the realm of $120 million to $150 million. Expect 'Ghostbusters' to wind up right in between those two numbers, but it there is an outside chance it will finish on the higher end.
     Occupying third place, Warner Bros.' surprise action-packed hit of the summer 'The Legend of Tarzan', which cost a whopping $180 million to produce, continued to benefit from positive word-of-mouth, dipping just 45.5% in its third weekend. In the process, it surpassed the $100-million milestone and has now swung its way to $103.4 million. While it still depends heavily on international returns to justify such a lofty cost, it should still wind up with a better-than-expected $120 million finish by the end of its run.

     Closely following in fourth was Disney's smash hit 'Finding Dory', dropping 45.8% for $11.3 million. The $200-million sequel to the 2003 classic has now amassed a colossal $445.7 million, just now dethroning 'Shrek 2' ($441.2m) to become the highest-grossing animated film of all time. With overwhelmingly positive reviews (94% RT rating) and word-of-mouth (88% Flixter score), 'Finding Dory' now has its sights set on a $475 million total, and can still make it to $500 million if it has enough gas before then.
     'Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates' fell 53.9% for $7.7 million, which is a bit worse than 'The Wedding Ringer''s hold last year. The $33-million R-rated comedy has now grossed $31.5 million and will likely end its run with around $40 million.
     In sixth and seventh were holdovers 'The Purge: Election Year' and 'Central Intelligence. The former dropped 50.1% for $6.2 million. Having banked $71.1 million so far on a $10-million budget, the horror three-quel is on the verge of becoming the highest-grossing film in the series and might pass $90 million if its lucky enough. The latter film starring Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart along with a $50-million price tag experienced the best hold in the Top 12 this weekend, dipping a light 33.1% and earning $5.4 million for a $117.6 million cume. Assuming it continues its spectacular holds, $130 million might be in reach for the action comedy.
     All the way down in seventh place was the Bryan Cranston led drug thriller 'The Infiltrator', which cost around $50 million to make but grossed just $5.3 million for its troubles. Since its Wednesday debut, 'Infiltrator' has earned a paltry $6.8 million. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem like the film that will do great business overseas, and with mixed critical and audience reception it's likely this won't hold on to theaters for too long.
     Disney's $140-million fantasy adaptation 'The BFG' continued its miserable run in theaters, falling 51.5% to add $3.8 million to its $47.4 million total. With unenthusiastic incomes from foreign countries, this will likely be one of Disney's and Spielberg's biggest flops, which is very disappointing as both have seen outstanding tallies for their films recently. A grand total of around $55 million is likely.
     On a much happier note, Sony's $17-million shark attack thriller 'The Shallows' continued holding up solidly, easing 37.4% and making $3 million. Its holds have been spectacular considering its genre, and with $51.4 million already $60 million may be in reach.
     Rounding out the Top 12, the Indian drama 'Sultan' plummeted 58.9% from its solid opening and made $974.8k. Though its $5.2 million domestic cume may seem small, it's doing extremely well in its home country where it has garnered $37.7 million.
     Woody Allen's 'Cafe Society' grossed $359.3k from just 5 theaters for a $71.9k per-theater average, easily becoming 2016's PTA winner. It's not on par with recent Allen films like 'Midnight in Paris' ($599k O.W. / $99.8k PTA) and 'Blue Jasmine' ($612.1k O.W. / $102k PTA), but it's still a solid debut in its own right. Expect this to expend strongly in the coming weeks.
     In 3 theaters, 'Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party' grossed $74.8k for a strong $24.9k PTA. Though this is a great opening, it was a very front-loaded weekend for the documentary (1.82x). It is expected to expand into 1,200 theaters next weekend.
     The Top 12 this weekend amassed $155.4 million, off 25.7% from last weekend and down 15.3% from last year when 'Ant-Man' ruled the competition.
     Next weekend will be a lot more active, as we are not only looking at the second weekend of 'Ghostbusters' but also the much-anticipated debut of 'Star Trek Beyond' (which is getting strong reviews so far), 'Ice Age: Collision Course (not-very-good reviews), and 'Lights Out' (which is getting stellar reviews for a horror film with 100% from 12 reviews in on RT so far).

Friday Report: 'Finding Dory' Keeps On Swimming While Audiences Pay Interest in 'Central Intelligence'

     Following a box office rebound last weekend, 'Finding Dory' will continue the impressive numbers as it looks to be the biggest animated opener of all time, demolishing previous record-holder 'Shrek the Third'. Meanwhile, fellow opener 'Central Intelligence' also debuted to solid figures, successfully counter-programming against all of the sequels and adaptations.

     Easily taking first place on Friday, 'Finding Dory' posted the largest opening day for an animated film in history, handily defeating the $38.4 million opening day of the aforementioned 'Shrek the Third'. It also did notably better than 'Minions' ($46m) and previous Pixar record-holder 'Toy Story 3' ($41.1m). As previously mentioned, 'Dory' is expected to beat the $121.6 million debut of 'Shrek' for the biggest animated opening weekend ever. The immense goodwill of its predecessor 'Finding Nemo', which is arguably one of the most beloved films of all time regardless of being animated or not, strong critical reviews and unprecedented buzz going into the weekend, and the endless promotion of the film on 'The Ellen DeGeneres Show' helped 'Dory' secure its spot at the box office. Disney is officially predicting a weekend of around $130 million to $145 million, which is a bit front-loaded for an animated offering though it is understandable given the massive numbers and that no animated film before has ever gotten this high. However, all of the above reasons as well as solid word-of-mouth should get the film to hold up strongly over Father's Day weekend, making a $150m+ debut a reasonable prediction.

     In a distant but solid second place was the $50-million Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart led action comedy 'Central Intelligence', which grossed $13 million. That is ahead of recent Kevin Hart comedies 'About Last Night' ($12.9m), 'Think Like A Man Too' ($12.2m), 'Get Hard' ($12.9m), and 'Ride Along 2' ($11.9m). As for Johnson's filmography, it almost outdoes 'Snitch''s $13.2 million opening and does beat the $8.5 million debut of 2010's 'Faster'. Among buddy cop films, it performed right in line with 'The Other Guys' ($13.1m), 'The Heat' ($13.7m), and '21 Jump Street' ($13.2m) while outperforming 'The Green Hornet' ($11.1m) and '2 Guns' ($9.9m) among comparisons. Overall, all of the previously mentioned films (excluding 'Snitch' and 'Faster') finished the weekend in the range of $25.6 million to $39.1 million. 'Central Intelligence' is very likely to finish on the high end of those numbers, with a possible weekend of around $35 million to $38 million.

     Though the $40-million horror sequel 'The Conjuring 2' received strong critical reviews and audience reception, it still wasn't able to match the holding power of its predecessor. Dropping a sharp 66.9% from its opening day, 'Conjuring' grossed $5.4 million, which is lower than the $7.3 million second Friday of the first 'Conjuring' and barely better than the $5.2 million of its spin-off 'Annabelle'. In fact, its Friday-to-Friday drop was more on par with 'Annabelle' than the original 'Conjuring'. So far, the horror sequel has now made a solid $61.6 million. If it follows 'Annabelle''s pattern, it will end the weekend with around $16.5 million.
     Fellow sequel 'Now You See Me 2' also failed to replicate the impressive holding power of its 2013 predecessor, tumbling 66.5% for $2.8 million. That is a much steeper fall than the 39.7% drop of the original, which grossed $6.1 million. So far, the $90-million magician thriller sequel has now made a so-so $34.5 million in eight days of release. A weekend of around $9 million to $10 million is likely.
     The final June 10th wide release, Universal's $160-million video game adaptation fantasy 'Warcraft', continued its miserable domestic run, grossing just $1.9 million and plummeting a ghastly 82%. Word-of-mouth is great for the film, but apparently its overall lack of interest as well as unenthusiastic critical reviews have prevented many from checking it out in theaters. With a meager $33.1 million in the bank, 'Warcraft' should finish with over $5.5 million for the weekend. However, it is doing much, much, much better overseas than over here, especially in China were it has demolished records.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Finding Dory' - $154.6 million

2. 'Central Intelligence' - $36.1 million

3. 'The Conjuring 2' - $16.6 million (-58.9%)

4. 'Now You See Me 2' - $9.4 million (-58%)

5. 'Warcraft' - $5.7 million (-76.4%)

Weekend Actuals: 'TMNT 2' Underwhelms, 'Me Before You' Captures Audiences' Hearts and 'Popstar' Bombs

     It was a slow weekend at the box office, with 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' quietly taking first from the disappointing 'X-Men: Apocalypse'. One of the other new wide releases, 'Me Before You', performed exceptionally well amidst all the competition while 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' stalled out.

     In the number one position, $135-million action sequel kid pic 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' grossed $35.32 million for an $8.7k per-theater average. That is 46.1% lower than its 2014 predecessor's $65.6 million debut in August (when movies usually have more muted grosses than in June) and 49.1% down from its per-theater average. Although it was essentially guaranteed that the sequel would never match its predecessor's opening, nobody expected this kind of opening until right before release (ranging from $25m-$40m). While reviews are a slight improvement over the first's, they still weren't convincing enough to get many audiences out to see the film. Add in some unimpressive marketing and promising more of the same but on a bigger scale (pretty much what all action sequels do), and this just wasn't appealing enough to help the franchise break out once more.

     Opening on Friday with $12.48 million ($2m from Thursday), 'Shadows' rose 4.3% on Saturday to gross $13.02 million and fell 24.7% on Sunday to make $9.81 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is 2.83-to-1, which is at least an improvement over the 2.56-to-1 ratio of its predecessor. Still, word-of-mouth isn't anything special with a 61% Flixter score (around where the first was at after opening weekend), though CinemaScore audiences were more forgiving ('A-' compared to the first's 'B'). It's unlikely it will hit $100 million, and $90 million would probably even be a stretch. A total near that number such as over/under $85 million is more likely. Overseas, 'Shadows' brought in $33 million, which is a slight improvement over the first's $29 million back in August 2014. It then snagged a 10.4x multiplier for a strong $302.1 million overseas cume. While it's unlikely to match that number given that sequels are usually more frontloaded than their predecessors, 'Shadows' will probably make up its domestic shortcomings with its foreign numbers. Top markets included the UK ($5.3m), Russia ($4.8m), Indonesia ($2.3m), and Malaysia ($2.2m). Expect a foreign total well over $200 million and a possible $400 million and up global take.
     Coming off of a disappointing opening weekend, 'X-Men: Apocalypse' continued to perform below expectations with a sharp 65.3% drop and $22.83 million weekend take. That is worse than the 64.2% drop of 'X-Men: Days of Future Past' as well as its $32.55 million gross. So far, the $178-million ensemble-led superhero blockbuster has totaled an uneventful $117 million in two weeks of play. It now looks to finish with around $160 million, which looks even more shameful given that that's only a little better than what the very first 'X-Men' did back in 2000 ($157.3m), and that's unadjusted for inflation. That would also mean it would only be better than the adjusted gross of 'X-Men: First Class' ($156.03m), which was a much riskier bet back in its time of release. At least it's doing exceptional overseas, grossing $84.4 million (+52.2%) for a $284.45 million overseas gross and $401.45 million worldwide. China attributed to the majority of that figure, with 'Apocalypse' raking in $59 million from that territory. Other notable countries are the UK ($23m), Korea ($18m), Mexico ($17m), Brazil ($15.9m), France ($12.9m), and Russia ($10.3m). A final worldwide gross of at least $500 million is likely at this point.
     The $20-million romantic drama based upon the popular novel of the same name 'Me Before You' got off to a very strong third place start, grossing $18.72 million for a $6.9k average. While it would be unfair to say that 100% of the film's success came from star Emilia Clarke, she most likely did have a positive impact on the film's performance since she has made a name for herself on HBO's 'Game of Thrones', one of the most successful television shows in recent memory. Add that with the fanbase of the novel and the long period of time since a female-targeting wide release, you have a recipe for success.

     'Me Before You' debuted with $7.78 million on Friday (including $1.365m from Thursday night previews), fell 20.3% on Saturday to earn $6.2 million, and fell another 23.5% on Sunday for $4.74 million. The ratio is  2.41-to-1, which is better than 'If I Stay' (2.3-to-1) and 'Paper Towns' (2-to-1) though it is behind the 2.66-to-1 ratio of last year's 'The Age of Adaline', though that film opened in April opposed to the summer releases of this film, 'Stay', and 'Towns'. Reviews are middling (55% on Rotten Tomatoes), which is normal for the romance genre, but word-of-mouth is dazzling (84% Flixter rating and 'A' CinemaScore) and stronger than the three previously mentioned comparisons (which were in the range of 48%-67%). A multiplier of at least 3.5x is likely, which would result in a domestic cume of at least $65 million, and while $90 million might be a stretch $80 million could be in reach. Overseas, it debuted to a solid $8.2 million.
     Disney's $170-million fantasy misfire 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' didn't hold up nearly as well as the studio's previous fantasy tales, plummeting 57.9% and grossing $11.31 million, adding up to a very underwhelming $51.4 million total in two weeks. The second weekend gross and drop is below that of its predecessor ($62.71m/-46%), 'Oz the Great and Powerful' ($41.25m/-47.9%), 'Maleficent' ($34.33m/-50.6%), 'Cinderella' ($34.97m/-48.5%), and 'The Jungle Book' ($61.54m/-40.4%), all of which opened with much bigger numbers. Unfortunately, it now looks as if it will struggle to hit the $85 million mark that 'Alice in Wonderland' surpassed in just two days. It now looks as if it can even fail to hit $80 million. Overseas, the fantasy fell 52.4% for $30.9 million as it continues to perform much stronger overseas than domestic. However, foreign territories are also lagging behind the performance of the first 'Alice'. With $125 million overseas and $176.4 million worldwide, 'Looking Glass' will ultimately try to push past the $400 million global mark, which is a major comedown from the $1.025 billion worldwide cume of the first. It also has no chance to meet that film's $691.28 million foreign gross. Instead, $215 million is more likely.

     Rounding out the Top 5, Sony's $73-million animated video game adaptation 'The Angry Birds Movie' fell 45.6% in its third weekend for $10.21 million. So far, the mixed-reviewed film has now amassed $87.12 million and should pass $100 million by next week or at least get close to it. It will pass the $90.76 million total of 'Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time' sometime this week to become the second highest-grossing video game adaptation of all time (domestically) behind 'Lara Croft: Tomb Raider' ($131.17m), which it now has a slim chance at besting. Still, a solid total of around $120 million is a lock. Overseas, 'Angry Birds' scored another $31.8 million for a new overseas cume of $196.79 million and worldwide gross of $283.91 million. Top countries include China ($49m), Russia ($10.7m), Germany ($8.5m), the UK ($8.4m), Brazil ($6.4m), and Mexico ($6.1m). Worldwide, it's the third highest-grossing video game movie after 'Prince of Persia' ($336.37m) and 'Resident Evil: Afterlife' ($296.22m), but at this rate it will probably end up with over $360 million making it the biggest video game adaptation of all time worldwide.
     'Captain America: Civil War' continued to reaffirm its position as the highest-grossing 2016 release both domestically and worldwide, dropping 49.1% for $7.83 million. Its $389.18 million domestic cume is the 23rd biggest, behind 'Frozen' ($400.74m), 'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen' ($402.11m), 'Jurassic Park' ($402.45m), 'Spider-Man' ($403.71m), 'The Hunger Games' ($408.01m), 'Iron Man 3' ($409.01m), and 'Toy Story 3' ($415m), all of which it should surpass in the coming weeks. $420 million should still be in reach. Its overseas gross is now $742.9 million, raising its global cume to $1.132 billion, making it the twelfth biggest movie worldwide behind 'Minions' ($1.159b) and 'Iron Man 3' ($1.215b) and should wind up in between the two.

     'Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising' followed suit in seventh place, dropping 48% to gross $4.86 million and for a new $48.72 million, which is a bit behind what the first 'Neighbors' opened with. 'Sorority Rising' is now looking for a disappointing $60 million finish, which 'Neighbors' passed in six days of release. Overseas, the R-rated comedy sequel has grossed $40.76 million and $89.49 million worldwide, setting its sights on a worldwide total of over $110 million (and that's just being hopeful), which is a big step down from the $270.67 million worldwide gross of the original.
     Debuting in a very disappointing seventh, Universal's $21-million musical mockumentary/comedy 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' failed to translate great reviews into an encouraging opening, making just $4.7 million for a measly $2k average. That is only $66k better than 2010's SNL comedy 'MacGruber', which eked out only $4.04 million. Reviews and word-of-mouth are pretty decent (both scores are over 75%), but that probably won't help the film hold up well in the long run. Don't be surprised if it fails to hit $10 million total.

     The Top 12 overall grossed a so-so $127.7 million, down 19.6% from last weekend but up 2.2% from when 'Spy' led the box office before 'Jurassic World' blew everything up. Next weekend sees the release of not one, but two sequels as well as another video game adaptation. I'm not expecting a breakout performance from any of them as it's very likely the summer tentpoles will cannibalize on each other by fighting over older male audiences all at the same time. The film's are the modestly-budgeted and well-reviewed horror sequel 'The Conjuring 2' (which arguably has the most potential of the three), the divisively-reviewed magician/caper sequel to the 2013 surprise hit 'Now You See Me' called the same thing but with a "2" slapped at the end (which will probably end up in the high-teens to mid-twenties for the weekend), and the big-budget poorly-reviewed adaptation of the popular video game series 'Warcraft' (which will struggle to break the $20m mark for the weekend). There is still hope for June though, as 'Finding Dory', 'Central Intelligence', and 'Independence Day: Resurgence' still have time to hit theaters, but that's for a later post.

Friday Report: 'TMNT 2' Modest While 'Me Before You' Performs Strongly

     Easily taking first place at the box office yesterday was Paramount's $135-million action sequel 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows', which reeled in $12.5 million. That is slightly above expectations as going into the weekend they began to drop below $30 million. While it is ahead of projections, 'Shadows' fell 51.2% from the $25.6 million take of its predecessor. This is the fourteenth time this year that a sequel has opened below its predecessor, and it's likely to continue throughout the rest of the summer (albeit a few exceptions like 'Finding Dory' and 'Jason Bourne'). If it plays like its predecessor it will end the weekend with less than $32 million. With slightly stronger reviews and word-of-mouth, I'm going to predict it will hold up a bit better through the weekend but its performance in the long run is still debatable. A $34 million opening is likely for the big-budget kid pic.

      In a very respectable second place was the $20-million romantic drama 'Me Before You', which is based upon the popular novel of the same novel and garnering $7.75 million. That is above the last three Nicholas Sparks films, last July's 'Paper Towns', and 2014's 'If I Stay'. This is a very solid result as the popularity of the book has obviously translated into solid figures. Strong word-of-mouth should propel the film to a weekend over $18 million and it could even top $20 million if it's lucky enough.
     In third place, 'X-Men: Apocalypse' continued to fall below expectations significantly with $6.55 million, down 75.1% from opening day. That drop is a bit worse than 'X-Men: Days of Future Past''s 73.5% decline and way off from 'X-Men: First Class''s 64.8% drop. It is also weaker than 'Captain America: Civil War' (-74%) but not quite as bad as 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' (-81.6%). So far, the $178-million franchise outing has grossed a disappointing $100.7 million. If it plays like 'Days', the second weekend total would be at $22.5 million. Given that word-of-mouth and reviews are a lot weeker this time around, a weekend around $21 million would be more likely.
     'Alice Through the Looking Glass' placed fourth with $3.155 million, down a troubling 67.5% from opening day and raising its cume to an uneventful $43.2 million. That drop is worse than its predecessor's (-57.6%), 'Oz the Great and Powerful' (-52.8%), 'Maleficent' (-58.1%), 'Cinderella' (-58.8%), and 'The Jungle Book' (-48.6%). Terrible reviews and mixed word-of-mouth are taking a toll on 'Alice''s performance as well as an overstuffed marketplace and Johnny Depp's fading starpower. In fact, it's more on par with 'Thor: The Dark World' (-67%) and 'Clash of the Titans' (-68%), which are much less family-friendly and a lot more violent. A weekend around $10.5 million or $11 million is likely.
     Rounding out the Top 5, 'The Angry Birds Movie' dropped 48.5% to gross $2.6 million. The $73-million animated video game adaptation has now made $79.5 million and will probably pass $85 million this weekend. $10 million should be a lock.
     In a disappointing seventh, the $21-million musical mockumentary/satire 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' made a paltry $1.77 million. That is only a bit better than the $1.57 million 'MacGruber' pulled in. If it goes a similar pattern, 'Popstar' will gross $4.5 million in its weekend, a likely result.

Weekend Forecast

1. 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' - $34.6 million

2. 'X-Men: Apocalypse' - $21.3 million (-67.6%)

3. 'Me Before You' - $19.5 million

4. 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' - $10.7 million (-60.2%)

5. 'The Angry Birds Movie' - $10.1 million (-46.3%)

-- 'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' - $4.6 million

Thursday Night Report: 'TMNT 2' Fails to Impress, 'Me Before You' Strong, 'Popstar' Doesn't Break Out

     It looks to be a slow weekend at the box office once again, as 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows' fell below its already scaled-back expectations to gross $2 million in Thursday night previews. That's 56.5% lower than the $4.6 million start of 2014's 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles'. Obviously, unimpressive reviews (33% on RT) and mixed word-of-mouth (65% on Flixter) will make the film fail to hold up as well as its predecessor. An opening less than $30 million is likely for the $135 million family pic.
     In contrast, 'Me Before You', the $20-million romance based upon the novel of the same name, got off to a strong start with $1.365 million, besting the $1.1 million 'If I Stay' made in 2014 and the last three Nicholas Sparks films. The former went on to debut with $15.7 million, and it looks as if 'Me Before You' will surpass that and expectations albeit slightly.
     'Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping' flopped with $322k, which is a bit more than what 'Pride and Prejudice and Zombies' and 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' made in February and March (both $300k). Expectations ranged from $5 million to $10 million, but looks as if it will now finish the weekend with a little more than $3 million.
     Last week's champion 'X-Men: Apocalypse' is looking at a drop of over 60% due to weak reviews and word-of-mouth and will battle 'TMNT 2' for the top spot. 'Me Before You' will likely finish third behind those films unless 'Alice Through the Looking Glass holds up better than expected, which is unlikely, and 'Captain America: Civil War' and 'The Angry Birds Movie' will duke it out for fourth place. Right now, 2016 box office is tracking 3.3% ahead of 2015 but if the weak performances of sequels continue to affect the box office it will likely start falling behind.

Weekend Actuals: 'Civil War' Excellent with Fifth-Biggest Opening Ever

     The Marvel Cinematic Universe's thirteenth installment, 'Captain America: Civil War', was widely expected by many to be the fourth film to open with over $200 million at the domestic box office this weekend. While it didn't quite reach those heights, it certainly wasn't a disappointment as it delivered the fifth-hugest opening of all time.

     Obviously occupying first place was 'Captain America: Civil War', the $250-million action-packed thirteenth MCU film, with opened with a huge $179.1 million for a stellar $42.4k per-theater average (sixth-biggest for a wide release). As already mentioned, it sits on the number five spot on the domestic opening chart, between fellow Marvel behemoths 'Iron Man 3' ($174.1m) and 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' ($191.3m), both of which wound up with over $400 million total. But more on the final grosses later. 'Civil War' just posted the biggest opening of 2016 so far and the fourth $100m+ opener of the year following 'Deadpool' ($132.4m), 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' ($166m), and 'The Jungle Book' ($103.3m). The breathtaking Avenger vs. Avenger spectacle also opened ahead of superhero heavyweights 'The Dark Knight Rises' ($160.9m), 'The Dark Knight' ($158.4m), and 'Spider-Man 3' ($151.1m). In fact, it surpassed the lifetime gross of the first 'Captain America' film, 'The First Avenger' ($176.7m) in just one weekend and over two-thirds of 'Winter Soldier''s $259.8 million cume. This is a very healthy debut that just happens to be right in line with expectations, which ranged from $160 million to $215 million. It is currently one of the best-reviewed and best-received of the MCU, so it looks like it will have a very healthy run throughout the rest of May.
    

Opening on Friday with a mammoth $75.5 million (including an impressive $25m from Thursday previews), the superhero three-quel declined 18.9% on Saturday for $61.2 million, and fell 30.7% on Sunday to gross $42.4 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio here is a pretty front-loaded 2.37-to-1, which is the the second worst ratio of the MCU behind 'Age of Ultron''s 2.27-to-1 ratio (which had to compete with the immensely popular Manny vs. Pacquiao fight on Saturday). Still, that film has a 75% Tomatometer and an 84% Flixter rating while 'Civil War' boasts a stellar 90% Tomatometer and a 92% Flixter score. Its CinemaScore stands at an 'A', which is on par with 'Ultron' and 'Winter Soldier' as well as 'Deadpool' while handily defeating 'Batman v Superman''s 'B' CinemaScore. As a result of awesome reviews and encouraging word-of-mouth, 'Civil War' has a lot of potential to hold up better than those films. The worst one so far is the 1.97x multiplier of 'Batman' with second place belonging to 'Ultron' (2.4x). 'Winter Soldier' and 'Deadpool' have nearly identical 2.73x and 2.74x multipliers, which is a likely result for 'Civil War' (getting it to over $490m). If it plays similar to 'Ultron' or 'Iron Man 3', $430 million is a lock. The former total is way more likely, and if it holds up even better than $500 million will easily be in reach for the box office behemoth. And while this is rare for a Marvel film, tripling its opening would get it to around $540 million. Let's keep our fingers crossed now, shall we?
     The rest of the box office quieted down significantly, with the top holdover being Disney's 'The Jungle Book' of course. The $175-million CGI/live-action hybrid fantasy actually held up pretty well in the face of brutal comepition, dropping a very respectable 44% for $24.5 million. With a massive total of $287.6 million so far, expect this one to cross over $300 million in the next week or so. With that said, a domestic cume of over $325 million now seems like a guarantee at this point.
     Coming off of a middling debut last weekend, the Garry Marshall directed ensemble led rom-com 'Mother's Day' held up extremely well thanks mostly to the titular weekend, increasing a very strong 32.5% for $11.1 million. Considering that reviews and word-of-mouth (or at least on Flixter) aren't strong at all, this is a very impressive hold even with the actual holiday falling on this weekend. The $25-million film now has $22.8 million, but whether or not it will continue to hold up well remains to be seen. If it does, than a total north of $35 million should be likely.

      All but one film in the Top 10 were completely slaughtered by 'Civil War'. 'The Hunstman: Winter's War' placed in fourth with $3.95 million, down 58.9%. The $115-million prequel/spin-off/sequel continues to bomb horribly with just $40.7 million and it is very unlikely it will make much more than $50 million. 'Keanu' rounded out the Top 5, plummeting 65.2% for $3.3 million. The $15-million continues to underwhelm with $15.3 million and should inch past $20 million total before the end of its run. In sixth was 'Zootopia', which was that one film that didn't get slaughtered, falling just 39.7% and grossing $3.2 million. The $150-million animated dramedy has raked in a solid $328.2 million and should ultimately get to at least $335 million.
     'Barbershop: The Next Cut' couldn't be saved from the "Marvel affect", dropping 53.9% and making $2.8 million. As it winds down, the comedy three-quel has now amassed a respectable $48.9 million and might be able to pass $55 million. Fellow comedy 'The Boss' fared a bit worse, falling 55.4% for $1.9 million and a $59.3 million cume. It should close with below $65 million. 'Ratchet & Clank' crashed in its second outing, grossing a paltry $1.5 million, down a jaw-dropping 69.9%. The not-so-popular video game adaptation only has $7.1 million so far, and should gross less than $10 million overall.
     As expected, 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' absolutely burned up in its seventh weekend, plummeting 72.9% for $1.05 million. This is likely to be its last weekend with over $1 million. The $250-million DC tentpole has now grossed $327.3 million, and should barely make it to $330 million total, which would ultimately be less than double its opening weekend, which is a very disappointing result. Fellow March 25th opener 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' is also beginning to wrap up, making $645.7k (-41.8%). The $18-million rom-com sequel has now brought in $58.3 million and could have enough juice to get past $60 million. And last but not really least, the Helen Mirren military drama 'Eye in the Sky' rounded out the Top 12 with $561k (-38.3%). With $17.3 million, it should ultimately make less than $20 million total.
     The Top 12 this weekend amassed an overall $233.6 million, up a humongous 136% from last weekend and 91% from last year when 'Avengers 2' repeated against 'Hot Pursuit'.
     Next weekend sees the openings of 'Money Monster' and 'The Darkness', both of which should open with under $10 million despite their recognizable star power. 'Captain America: Civil War' should have no problem repeating in first and I expect that due to strong reviews/word-of-mouth, it will be the first MCU entry since 'Marvel's The Avengers' to suffer a second weekend drop of 55% or less (meaning a sophomore weekend of at least $80.5 million, which would be the fourth biggest).

Weekend Estimates: 'Jungle Book' Reigns One Last Time Before 'Captain America' Storms Theaters

     Disney's big budget CGI/live-action hybrid 'The Jungle Book' topped the weekend box office for one last time before Disney's other big-budget (but entirely live-action) tentpole 'Captain America: Civil War' invades the marketplace. In fact, that film has already racked up record-breaking numbers in a bunch of overseas territories, all the more pointing to a record-breaking opening.
     Easily retaining first place was the $175-million fantasy remake 'The Jungle Book', which dipped a light 29% for $43.7 million. That is the seventh biggest third weekend of all time, ahead of 'The Dark Knight Rises' ($42.7m) and slightly behind 'Spider-Man' ($45m). The strong hold can be contributed to stellar reviews and word-of-mouth and the boost it received from audiences who wanted to catch this before seeing 'Civil War' next weekend. So far, its domestic cume stands at a very impressive $253.4 million, and if it can hold up well throughout the rest of the summer against a bunch of other family-friendly titles than $340 million is a lock. Overseas, it's doing even better, with its foreign total now at a strong $434.8 million in the bank already. With $688.2 million worldwide, the chances of it crossing the $1 billion mark are getting more and more likely.
     Barely repeating in second place was Universal's $115-million fantasy prequel/sequel/spin-off 'The Huntsman: Winter's War', which continued to get crushed with just $9.6 million in its second weekend. That's down a comparatively respectable 50.5% given that the drop was expected to be much worse, but its still a domestic flop with just $34.2 million. It should end its run with a disappointing $50 million or up. Worldwide, it's not doing much better, with a foreign gross of $97.8 million and worldwide earnings at $132 million.
     Leading the middling slew of newcomers is the $15-million Key & Peele led comedy 'Keanu', which debuted to a modest $9.45 million for a $3.6k per-theater average. That's a bit below expectations, which tended to range from $10 million to $15 million and even as high as $20 million. Still, this is the leads' first theatrical outing, so breakout potential was limited. However, it still should have done better with solid reviews and its popular subject matter working for it.

     Opening on Friday with $3.44 million (including $560k from Thursday), 'Keanu' experienced an uptick of 7.5% on Saturday for $3.7 million, and fell 37.7% on Sunday to gross $2.3 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a so-so 2.75-to-1. The 75% RT rating and 72% Flixter score bode well in terms of staying power, but its middling 'B' CinemaScore tells a different story. Just to be safe, I'm going to say 'Keanu' might be able to creep past $25 million total.
     Fellow newcomer 'Mother's Day', the $25-million third entry of Garry Marshall's franchise of holiday-based rom-coms, also fell below expectations ($10m-$15m) with $8.4 million ($2.75k PTA). That is WAY WAY WAY less than the $56.3 million 'Valentine's Day' pulled in and is a bit worse than the already underwhelming $13 million of 'New Year's Eve'. This represents yet another underperformer for distributor Open Road, which has been struggling greatly recently. They will be hoping to redeem themselves with September's 'Snowden'.
     On Friday, the ensemble-led rom-com grossed $2.8 million, increased 20% on Saturday to gross $3.3 million, and fell 33% on Sunday for $2.2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is a strong 2.96-to-1, which is one of the few encouraging signs of the weekend. Its CinemaScore is a 'B+' and its Flixter score is 55%, which is at least better than its 9% RT score. With the titular holiday coming up next weekend, expect a couple strong holds to get it close to $30 million total.
     'Barbershop: The Next Cut' held up well in fifth, dropping 42.2% and making $6.1 million. The comedy three-quel has now grossed a splendid $44.7 million in three weeks of play and might be able to get past $60 million. 'Zootopia' also experienced a light hold, easing just 19% for $5.3 million. The $150-million animated film's cume now stands at $323.8 million and should inch forward to the $340 million mark. Overseas, it has collected a strong $609 million for a new $932.8 million worldwide cume, which might escalate past $1 billion if it has enough gas left in the tank.
     Making less than 'Zootopia''s ninth weekend is the video game adaptation 'Ratchet & Clank', placing in seventh with just $4.9 million ($1.7k PTA). That is the eleventh worst opening for a video game movie, sandwiched between 'Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li' ($4.7m) and 'Wing Commander' ($5.1m). Amidst all the heavy competition, 'Ratchet' didn't stand a chance at becoming a success, falling below industry projections ($5m-$8m).
     On Friday, the film earned $1.5 million, increased 33.6% on Saturday for $2 million, and declined 31.2% on Sunday for $$1.375 million. The ratio here is 3.27-to-1, which is solid given that reviews and word-of-mouth are in the cellar. Regardless, it is unlikely it will make much more than $15 million even if it does hold up well.

     'The Boss' and 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' continued playing side-by-side, grossing $4.3 million (-31.2%) and $3.9 million (-29.7%), respectively. The former has so far brought in $56.1 million and should close with around $65 million while the latter has now earned $325.2 million and will likely fall off much more quickly after 'Civil War' arrives in the marketplace next weekend. Expect a total close to $330 million, which would mean the film ultimately failed to double its opening weekend (a feat not to be very proud of).
     'Criminal' and 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' each made over $1 million for the weekend, bringing in $1.3 million (-56.8%) and $1.1 million (-47.1%). The former has grossed a lackluster $13.5 million and will likely barely make more than $15 million total while the latter keeps on enjoying its fairly leggy run with $57.3 million and a chance of reaching $60 million.
     Roadside Attraction's modestly-reviewed 'A Hologram for the King', starring Tom Hanks, held up very well this weekend, slipping a light 17.2% for $943.2k. The low-budget R-rated comedy/drama has now earned $2.6 million, and might be able to reach $5 million if it continues to expand.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend made $99 million, down 17.4% from last weekend and down 56.3% from last year when 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' opened with a huge $191.3 million.

     Next weekend, expect the box office to explode to enormous heights when 'Captain America: Civil War' opens with no new competition going against it. Many projections are going past $200 million, with some even thinking it could challenge 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($207.4m) as the biggest Marvel/superhero film opener of all time. My prediction in the monthly forecast was $202.5 million, but now even that seems a bit low. Paired with a strong overseas opening matching that of last year's 'Avengers: Age of Ultron', this is bound to be Marvel's biggest film yet both here and abroad.

     While 'The Jungle Book' ruled in America, 'Captain America: Civil War' absolutely dominated overseas with a humongous $200.4 million from 37 territories. The only MCU film to have a bigger opening than that is 'Avengers: Age of Ultron', which grossed $201.2 million last year and going on to a whopping $946.4 million total. It had the third biggest opening of all time in South Korea with $28.9 million, which is ahead of the $23.1 million 'Ultron' opened to. Another $10.9 million came from Australia, while Taiwan ($8.1m) and the Philippines ($7.5m, or their biggest opening yet) also saw healthy grosses. Japan witnessed a $7.1 million haul while Hong Kong ($6.8m), Thailand ($6m), and Malaysia ($5.1m) had notable performances. It took home the trophy for the biggest opening of all time in Mexico and Brazil, with stunning $20.9 million and $12.3 million debuts. In the UK, 'Civil War' made $20.5 million while France recorded $10.1 million, Germany accounted for $8.1 million, and Spain took in $4.4 million.
     If 'Civil War' plays like 'Ultron', it will end up with over $940 million overseas. If it plays similar to 'Iron Man 3', $810 million is a lock. Just for the sake of comparison, a 'Jurassic World' multiplier (3.22x) 'Civil War' will wind up with $645 million, a 'Furious 7' one (4.65x), and an 'Avengers' multiplier (4.84x) will get it to nearly $970 million overseas. While very unlikely, if 'Civil War' nabs a multiplier similar to its predecessor's (6.05x), then a massive $1.2 billion haul is in store from just foreign grosses alone. If it does manage to quintuple its opening and play like a 'Hobbit' movie, than $1.035 billion is likely. While all of these figures are quite possible, the ones that are most likely to occur are the ones in the $930m-$1b range. Either way, it's a massive success for Marvel Studios and Disney, and it will only get better from here once domestic grosses start rolling out.