Weekend Estimates: 'Jungle Book' Reigns One Last Time Before 'Captain America' Storms Theaters

     Disney's big budget CGI/live-action hybrid 'The Jungle Book' topped the weekend box office for one last time before Disney's other big-budget (but entirely live-action) tentpole 'Captain America: Civil War' invades the marketplace. In fact, that film has already racked up record-breaking numbers in a bunch of overseas territories, all the more pointing to a record-breaking opening.
     Easily retaining first place was the $175-million fantasy remake 'The Jungle Book', which dipped a light 29% for $43.7 million. That is the seventh biggest third weekend of all time, ahead of 'The Dark Knight Rises' ($42.7m) and slightly behind 'Spider-Man' ($45m). The strong hold can be contributed to stellar reviews and word-of-mouth and the boost it received from audiences who wanted to catch this before seeing 'Civil War' next weekend. So far, its domestic cume stands at a very impressive $253.4 million, and if it can hold up well throughout the rest of the summer against a bunch of other family-friendly titles than $340 million is a lock. Overseas, it's doing even better, with its foreign total now at a strong $434.8 million in the bank already. With $688.2 million worldwide, the chances of it crossing the $1 billion mark are getting more and more likely.
     Barely repeating in second place was Universal's $115-million fantasy prequel/sequel/spin-off 'The Huntsman: Winter's War', which continued to get crushed with just $9.6 million in its second weekend. That's down a comparatively respectable 50.5% given that the drop was expected to be much worse, but its still a domestic flop with just $34.2 million. It should end its run with a disappointing $50 million or up. Worldwide, it's not doing much better, with a foreign gross of $97.8 million and worldwide earnings at $132 million.
     Leading the middling slew of newcomers is the $15-million Key & Peele led comedy 'Keanu', which debuted to a modest $9.45 million for a $3.6k per-theater average. That's a bit below expectations, which tended to range from $10 million to $15 million and even as high as $20 million. Still, this is the leads' first theatrical outing, so breakout potential was limited. However, it still should have done better with solid reviews and its popular subject matter working for it.

     Opening on Friday with $3.44 million (including $560k from Thursday), 'Keanu' experienced an uptick of 7.5% on Saturday for $3.7 million, and fell 37.7% on Sunday to gross $2.3 million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a so-so 2.75-to-1. The 75% RT rating and 72% Flixter score bode well in terms of staying power, but its middling 'B' CinemaScore tells a different story. Just to be safe, I'm going to say 'Keanu' might be able to creep past $25 million total.
     Fellow newcomer 'Mother's Day', the $25-million third entry of Garry Marshall's franchise of holiday-based rom-coms, also fell below expectations ($10m-$15m) with $8.4 million ($2.75k PTA). That is WAY WAY WAY less than the $56.3 million 'Valentine's Day' pulled in and is a bit worse than the already underwhelming $13 million of 'New Year's Eve'. This represents yet another underperformer for distributor Open Road, which has been struggling greatly recently. They will be hoping to redeem themselves with September's 'Snowden'.
     On Friday, the ensemble-led rom-com grossed $2.8 million, increased 20% on Saturday to gross $3.3 million, and fell 33% on Sunday for $2.2 million. The weekend-to-Friday ratio is a strong 2.96-to-1, which is one of the few encouraging signs of the weekend. Its CinemaScore is a 'B+' and its Flixter score is 55%, which is at least better than its 9% RT score. With the titular holiday coming up next weekend, expect a couple strong holds to get it close to $30 million total.
     'Barbershop: The Next Cut' held up well in fifth, dropping 42.2% and making $6.1 million. The comedy three-quel has now grossed a splendid $44.7 million in three weeks of play and might be able to get past $60 million. 'Zootopia' also experienced a light hold, easing just 19% for $5.3 million. The $150-million animated film's cume now stands at $323.8 million and should inch forward to the $340 million mark. Overseas, it has collected a strong $609 million for a new $932.8 million worldwide cume, which might escalate past $1 billion if it has enough gas left in the tank.
     Making less than 'Zootopia''s ninth weekend is the video game adaptation 'Ratchet & Clank', placing in seventh with just $4.9 million ($1.7k PTA). That is the eleventh worst opening for a video game movie, sandwiched between 'Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li' ($4.7m) and 'Wing Commander' ($5.1m). Amidst all the heavy competition, 'Ratchet' didn't stand a chance at becoming a success, falling below industry projections ($5m-$8m).
     On Friday, the film earned $1.5 million, increased 33.6% on Saturday for $2 million, and declined 31.2% on Sunday for $$1.375 million. The ratio here is 3.27-to-1, which is solid given that reviews and word-of-mouth are in the cellar. Regardless, it is unlikely it will make much more than $15 million even if it does hold up well.

     'The Boss' and 'Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice' continued playing side-by-side, grossing $4.3 million (-31.2%) and $3.9 million (-29.7%), respectively. The former has so far brought in $56.1 million and should close with around $65 million while the latter has now earned $325.2 million and will likely fall off much more quickly after 'Civil War' arrives in the marketplace next weekend. Expect a total close to $330 million, which would mean the film ultimately failed to double its opening weekend (a feat not to be very proud of).
     'Criminal' and 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2' each made over $1 million for the weekend, bringing in $1.3 million (-56.8%) and $1.1 million (-47.1%). The former has grossed a lackluster $13.5 million and will likely barely make more than $15 million total while the latter keeps on enjoying its fairly leggy run with $57.3 million and a chance of reaching $60 million.
     Roadside Attraction's modestly-reviewed 'A Hologram for the King', starring Tom Hanks, held up very well this weekend, slipping a light 17.2% for $943.2k. The low-budget R-rated comedy/drama has now earned $2.6 million, and might be able to reach $5 million if it continues to expand.
     Overall, the Top 12 this weekend made $99 million, down 17.4% from last weekend and down 56.3% from last year when 'Avengers: Age of Ultron' opened with a huge $191.3 million.

     Next weekend, expect the box office to explode to enormous heights when 'Captain America: Civil War' opens with no new competition going against it. Many projections are going past $200 million, with some even thinking it could challenge 'Marvel's The Avengers' ($207.4m) as the biggest Marvel/superhero film opener of all time. My prediction in the monthly forecast was $202.5 million, but now even that seems a bit low. Paired with a strong overseas opening matching that of last year's 'Avengers: Age of Ultron', this is bound to be Marvel's biggest film yet both here and abroad.

     While 'The Jungle Book' ruled in America, 'Captain America: Civil War' absolutely dominated overseas with a humongous $200.4 million from 37 territories. The only MCU film to have a bigger opening than that is 'Avengers: Age of Ultron', which grossed $201.2 million last year and going on to a whopping $946.4 million total. It had the third biggest opening of all time in South Korea with $28.9 million, which is ahead of the $23.1 million 'Ultron' opened to. Another $10.9 million came from Australia, while Taiwan ($8.1m) and the Philippines ($7.5m, or their biggest opening yet) also saw healthy grosses. Japan witnessed a $7.1 million haul while Hong Kong ($6.8m), Thailand ($6m), and Malaysia ($5.1m) had notable performances. It took home the trophy for the biggest opening of all time in Mexico and Brazil, with stunning $20.9 million and $12.3 million debuts. In the UK, 'Civil War' made $20.5 million while France recorded $10.1 million, Germany accounted for $8.1 million, and Spain took in $4.4 million.
     If 'Civil War' plays like 'Ultron', it will end up with over $940 million overseas. If it plays similar to 'Iron Man 3', $810 million is a lock. Just for the sake of comparison, a 'Jurassic World' multiplier (3.22x) 'Civil War' will wind up with $645 million, a 'Furious 7' one (4.65x), and an 'Avengers' multiplier (4.84x) will get it to nearly $970 million overseas. While very unlikely, if 'Civil War' nabs a multiplier similar to its predecessor's (6.05x), then a massive $1.2 billion haul is in store from just foreign grosses alone. If it does manage to quintuple its opening and play like a 'Hobbit' movie, than $1.035 billion is likely. While all of these figures are quite possible, the ones that are most likely to occur are the ones in the $930m-$1b range. Either way, it's a massive success for Marvel Studios and Disney, and it will only get better from here once domestic grosses start rolling out.