Weekend Actuals: 'Deadpool' Explodes to the Top Spot, 'How to Be Single' Benefits from Date Night Audiences, 'Zoolander' Stumbles

     In what is now one of the most historic box office weekends ever, R-rated superhero comedy 'Deadpool' shot up a bunch of records with a very strong debut, 'How to Be Single' provided solid counter-programming, and 'Zoolander 2' pretty much fell flat on its face.

     Easily taking the weekend crown, the $58-million R-rated superhero comedy 'Deadpool' from Fox grossed an estimated $132.4 million (and $152.2m over the four-day weekend). It demolished expectations as well as a few records, including the biggest February Thursday showing ($12.7m), biggest February opening day ($47.4m), biggest single day in February ($47.4m), biggest February opening, biggest 4-day President's Day weekend, biggest R-rated opening, biggest opening for an R-rated comic adaptation, biggest winter opening, and biggest Fox opening. It opened $47.2 million ahead of last year's $40-million romance hit 'Fifty Shades of Grey', which debuted to $85.2 million ($93m four-day) on the same weekend. It is also ahead of 'The Matrix Reloaded' ($91.8m), 'American Sniper' ($89.3m), and '300' ($70.9m). Among comic-book-adapted openers on the same weekend, 'Deadpool' easily took down 'Ghost Rider' ($45.4m) and its sequel ($22.1m), 'Daredevil' ($40.3m), 'Constantine' ($29.8m), and 'Kingsman: The Secret Service' ($36.2m), another R-rated Fox surprise hit. In fact, it beat all those opening weekends on its opening day, which is quite a feat. Expectations ranged from $75m-$95m for the four-day weekend, which makes this performance all the more impressive. Ultimately, the marketing is the main reason this film is such a huge success. From the Red Band trailers and the irreverent posters to the emoji billboards and "graphic info-graphic" (as described by comicbook.com), Fox has made it clear that they are not only targeting the fans of the cult character, they are also trying to get it to click with casual moviegoers. And it's clearly paid off, big time. Add in strong reviews (83% on RT) and very surprisingly solid word-of-mouth (95% Flixter score), it should hold up stronger than expected as well.

     Starting out with $47.4 million on Friday (including $12.7m from Thursday), 'Deadpool' fell a slim 10.2% on Saturday to gross $42.5 million and increased 0.2% on Valentine's Day to gross $42.6 million. It fell 53.6% on President's Day to make $19.8 million. The (3-day) weekend-to-Friday ratio is a very solid 2.79-to-1. That's much better than the 2.56-to-1 ratio of 2014's 'X-Men: Days of Future Past', the 2.52-to-1 ratio of 2007's '300', and the 2.25-to-1 ratio of 2009's 'Watchmen'. What's ironic is that the spin-off's opening is way higher than any debut from the franchise that spawned it. The previous franchise high was 'X-Men: The Last Stand' ($102.8m), which 'Deadpool' absolutely demolished. Because of the aforementioned solid reviews and phenomenal word-of-mouth, I expect 'Deadpool' to hold up better than your average superhero movie, which is why I think it's very likely it will close in the $365m-$385m range. It might even have a chance at clearing $400 million, though we'll have to wait the next couple weeks to see if that's possible.
     In second place, 'Kung Fu Panda 3' held up very well with $19.8 million, down just 7% from last weekend. The $140-million animated comedy grossed $25.9 million for the four-day weekend, making it increase 22% from last weekend and push past the $100-million mark. So far, 'Panda' has grossed a solid $100.2 million in three weeks, and will make a run for $145 million total.

     In third place, Warner Bros.' $38-million romantic comedy 'How to Be Single' proved to be the best counter-programming against 'Deadpool' among the newcomers this weekend, taking in $17.9 million ($19.9m four-day). That is right in line with pre-release expectations ($19m-$20m for the 4-day weekend). Due to her breakout performance last year in 'Fifty Shades of Grey', Dakota Johnson now seems like a viable box office draw, and Rebel Wilson is still a growing star. Even though reviews aren't that kind (47% on RT), audiences are more forgiving ('B' CinemaScore).
     'How to Be Single' began with $5.3 million on Friday, increased an encouraging 13.6% on Saturday to make $6 million, and increased another 11.7% on Sunday to earn $6.7 million. It fell 69.6% on Monday to make $2 million. While it's unlikely it will be leggy enough to triple this opening, it should still hold up fairly well in the coming weeks. It should make at least $45 million before the end of its run.
     In a very disappointing fourth, Paramount's $50-million comedy sequel to the 2001 cult hit 'Zoolander 2' brought in just $13.8 million over the three-day weekend and $15.9 million over the four-day weekend. Unfortunately, that first figure is actually below the UNADJUSTED opening of the first 'Zoolander', which debuted to $15.5 million. It's obvious that the cast aren't reliable box office draws now, but that's not the only factor. Opening against 'Deadpool' already limited its potential, and now that 'Deadpool' has demolished expectations and records, poor 'Zoolander' only has the fans of the original to turn to. And even then some didn't show up due to the poor reviews (22% on RT) and unconvincing word-of-mouth (35% Flixter score).
     'Zoolander' began with $4.2 million on Friday, increased 10.7% on Saturday and earned $4.6 million, and increased 9.4% on Sunday to make $5.1 million. On Monday the comedy dropped 59.6% and grossed $2 million. With horrid reviews, troubling word-of-mouth, and overall disinterest among moviegoers, 'Zoolander' should fade away quickly. It would truly be surprising if it made much more than $33 million.
     Fifth belonged to 'The Revenant' for 3-day weekend, bringing in $6.5 million (-6%). In the end, the $135-million Leonardo DiCaprio led Western thriller has grossed $159.8 million. It is on the verge of passing 'Django Unchained' ($162.8m) and 'Catch Me If You Can' ($164.6m) to become DiCaprio's third biggest movie ever behind only 'Titanic' ($658.7m) and 'Inception' ($292.6m). A $180 million finish is likely at this point. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' took the spot in the four-day weekend with $7.6 million (+9.6%) for a new total of $916.3 million. Expect a $930 million finish for the record-breaker. It landed in seventh for the 3-day weekend with $6.2 million (-11.7%).
     Sixth place was occupied by 'Hail, Caesar!' for the three-day weekend and 'The Revenant' for the four-day weekend. The former took in $6.4 million (-43.7%) in three days and $7.4 million (-35.1%) in four. 'Revenant' grossed $7.6 million (+9.3%). As for 'Caesar!', it's performing unusually front-loaded for a Coens film due to weak word-of-mouth (46% Flixter score). With a disappointing $22.1 million in two weeks of play, $30 million seems doable.
     Eight and ninth places belonged to 'The Choice' and 'Ride Along 2' in both weekends. The former brought in $5.2 million (3-day/-13.7%) and $5.8 million (4-day/-3.7%) while the latter grossed $4.5 million (3-day/-2.2%) and $5.1 million (4-day/+11.5%). 'Choice' grossed $13.2 million in two weeks and should end its run with around $18 million while 'Ride Along' has gathered $83 million and will probably close with over/under $90 million.
     Tenth, eleventh, and twelfth places were tightly bunched together for the three-day and four-day weekends. Tenth was 'The Boy' with $3.1 million (-23.1%) and $3.6 million (-12.5%), eleventh was 'The Finest Hours' which brought in $2.7 million (3-day/-43.7%) and 'Fifth Wave' with $3.3 million (4-day/-12.4%), and twelfth was 'The Fifth Wave' with $2.7 million (3-day/-28.4%) and 'Finest Hours' $3.2 million (4-day/-32.9%). 'The Boy' ($31.4m) and 'The Fifth Wave' ($30.1m) have been displaying stronger-than-expected holding power thus far, but unfortunately 'Finest Hours' ($23.8m) is slowing down significantly. I expect a $35 million finish for both 'Boy' and 'Fifth Wave' but no more than $28 million for 'Finest Hours'.
     Overall, this weekend's Top 12 grossed a massive $221.2 million ($257.5m four-day), which is up a whopping 169.7% from last weekend and up 10.2% from last year (+11.3% from the four-day weekend) when 'Fifty Shades' broke the record. This is by far the biggest President's Day weekend ever in history, pushing the yearly total to $1.476 billion (+1.2% from the same point last year).
     Next weekend should be a lot quieter with 'Deadpool' repeating in first. Sure, the new releases could break out, but it still won't be enough to match this weekend. The newcomers include Focus Feature's 'Race', the Jesse Owens biopic that will attempt to replicate the success of '42' and avoid the failure of 'Get On Up', Sony's 'Risen', a new tale about Jesus that will try to differentiate itself from previous faith-based epics, and A24's 'The Witch', which is going straight into wide release, a first for the studio.