Friday, October 23, 2015

Thursday Night Report: 'Martian' and 'Goosebumps' Battle for First while Newcomers Flop

     Displaying excellent holding power throughout the week, Fox's 'The Martian' and Sony's 'Goosebumps' are set to fight for first place this weekend. Meanwhile, four new wide releases were very dead on arrival, and even the film that was expected to open in first place this weekend is more of a mixed bag.
     From 1,000 locations, Paramount's $10-million found-footage horror 'Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension' bombed with just $600k. That is only half of 'The Marked Ones'' $1.2 million Thursday night take, although that film opened in more theaters. 'Marked Ones' went on to a $18.3 million weekend, and if 'Ghost Dimension' follows that pattern it will wind up with a likely but dejecting $9 million.
      The $90-million action fantasy 'The Last Witch Hunter' also didn't fare well, bringing in a terrible $525k last night. That is only $25k more than the midnight haul that 'Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters' made. With basically the same reception from critics (15% on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences (52% Flixter score), it could open to around $20 million. That is unlikely though, as this is a more block-buster like film and carries a higher budget. A opening of around $8-$11 million is a lock.
     Pulling in $249k from 1,748 locations, 'Steve Jobs' is looking for a lower-than-expected expansion (projections ranged from $21-$24m). It's hard to predict this one though, as it has been in limited release for two weeks now and people usually don't rush out on the first night on nationwide release. Strong reviews (86% on RT) and word-of-mouth (81% Flixter score) should help propel 'Jobs' with strong legs. A weekend of $9-$14 million is likely.
     Bill Murray's latest $15-million comedy 'Rock the Kasbah' flopped with just $75k. Although older audiences should help it carry on through the weekend, $1.5-$3 million is nothing to do cartwheels over.
     Last but not least (well, maybe least...), 'Jem and the Holograms' bombed hardly with $34k. The PG-rated $5-million musical drama was never expected to make much, but this is especially disappointing. $2-$2.5 million is likely.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Weekend Actuals: Audiences Get 'Goosebumps' and 'Bridge of Spies', 'Crimson Peak' Doesn't Thrill

     It was a close race for the #1 spot this weekend, as Sony's new release 'Goosebumps' barely beat Fox's 'The Martian' in its third weekend. Meanwhile, Disney's Cold War thriller 'Bridge of Spies' opened somewhat modestly while 'Crimson Peak' practically bombed.
     'Goosebumps' performed below expectations, although it still did solid business in the #1 spot. The $58-million Jack Black led horror comedy adaptation of R. L. Stine's series of novels grossed a strong $23.6 million for a $6,746 per-theater average. That is especially good as it was first projected to earn just $18 million in its debut weekend. Starting out with $7.3 million on Friday, 'Goosebumps' increased a healthy 32.9% on Saturday to earn $9.8 million, and dropped 33.4% on Sunday to gross $6.5 million. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a solid 3.23-to-1. It was likely aided by strong reviews (72% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore) as well as opening just a week before Halloween. With no notable family competition until November 6 when Fox's 'The Peanuts Movie' comes out, it should hold up very well throughout the rest of October. A $75 million finish should be likely.
     Although 'The Martian' had to settle for second place, it still held up well this weekend, dropping 42.4% and making $21.3 million. The $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi adaptation of Andy Weir's best-seller has been performing very strongly thus far, with a $143.6 million domestic cume as of today. Fueled by excellent reviews (93% on RT) and word-of-mouth (93% Flixter score), $225 million is still a lock at this point.
     'Bridge of Spies' landed in third this weekend, with a three-day take of $15.4 million. That is below pre-release expectations, which tended to range from $16-$19 million. Nevertheless, the $40-million Tom Hanks led historical thriller from Steven Spielberg nabbed a respectable $5,468 per-theater average. 'Spies' began with $5.4 million on Friday, increased an encouraging 15.3% on Saturday to earn $6.2 million, and fell 38.4% to make $3.8 million on Sunday. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a great 2.85-to-1. Very strong reviews (93% on RT) and word-of-mouth ('A' CinemaScore) likely helped 'Spies', and with its nature of being a Spielberg film, the movie should be able to get past $55 million total.
     Guillermo del Toro's gothic horror 'Crimson Peak' belly-flopped into fourth place this weekend with just $13.1 million, representing a poor $4,405 average. Suffering day-to-day declines throughout the weekend instead of even the smallest uptick, 'Peak' began with $5.3 million on Friday, declined a light 6.3% on Saturday to gross $4.9 million, and plummeted 39.7% on Sunday to earn $3 million. That places the ratio at a disappointing and front-loaded 2.47-to-1, although there is the possibility of holding up well once Halloween comes. Otherwise, the $55-million horror from Universal and Legendary should end its run with a lackluster $35 million.
     In fifth place, 'Hotel Transylvania 2' grossed $12.6 million this weekend, down 38.1% from last weekend. The $80-million animated comedy has so far grossed an outstanding $136.8 million, which is more than what the first film had at the same point. A total of around $165 million is still possible, and would be a nice rebound for both Sony and star Adam Sandler.
     Last weekend's big-budget flop 'Pan' continued to bomb horribly this weekend, falling 61.7% from its debut and landing a disappointing $5.9 million second weekend gross. The $150-million Hugh Jackman starrer from Warner Bros. has so far made just $25.7 million, which is behind fellow Warner Bros. flop 'Jupiter Ascending', which opened earlier this year. A $36 million finale would be reasonable to expect.
     'The Intern' eased 37.2% in its fourth weekend, taking in $5.4 million. The $35-million comedy has grossed a very respectable $58.8 million, and it remains to be seen if it could crack $70 million.
     $30-million crime thriller 'Sicario' slipped 39.9% from its second week in nationwide release, grossing $4.6 million. The strongly-reviewed Emily Blunt led film from Lionsgate has so far brought in a solid $34.7 million cume, and $40 million total is on the horizon.
     Faith-based drama 'Woodlawn' debuted with an excellent $4 million. That is way below 'War Room''s $11.4 million opening, but is ahead of the $3.6 million debut of 2015 release 'Do You Believe?'. Although that is a strong debut, the film reportedly costs $25 million, so it will need a multiplier of at least 6.1x to pass that budget. Anyways, 'Woodlawn' started out with $1.5 million on Friday, decreased 8.9% on Saturday to make $1.4 million, and fell a slim 14.1% on Sunday to gross $1.2 million. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.67-to-1, which is fairly front-loaded with its genre in mind. $13-$16 million is likely.
     'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' brought in $2.9 million, which is down 46.8% from last weekend. The $61-million YA adaptation has brought in a strong $75.5 million so far, although that is below expectations and behind the first film, and $80 million total is still a lock.
     'Steve Jobs' jumped up 5 spots from last weekend, raking in a strong $1.5 million ($25.2k average) and up 190.1% from when it grossed $521.5k from 4 locations last weekend. The $30-million Michael Fassbender led biopic from Universal has so far grossed $2.2 million. Next weekend sees its nationwide expansion, which could possibly translate into a $20m+ weekend take.
     'Black Mass' dropped 59% to gross $1.3 million, most likely due to it losing 1,002 theaters. The $53-million crime film grossed $60.2 million so far, and $63 million is still likely.
     The Top 12 this weekend grossed $111.6 million, which is up just 1.4% from last weekend, but is down 8.1% from last year when 'Fury' took the top spot from 'Gone Girl'.
     Next weekend sees the nationwide releases of the musical 'Jem and the Holograms', the fantasy action pic 'The Last Witch Hunter', the low-budget horror 'Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension', the R-rated comedy 'Rock the Kasbah', and the nationwide expansion of the critically acclaimed biopic 'Steve Jobs'.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Weekend Actuals: 'Martian' Repeats at #1 as 'Pan' Crashes and 'Walk' Slows Down

     Last weekend's box office champion 'The Martian' remained at first place, easily beating new competition like 'Pan' and 'The Walk', both of which performed poorly considering their budgets ('Pan') and strong reviews ('The Walk').
     #1 spot belonged to 'The Martian' once again, which claimed $37 million this weekend and a solid 31.9% decline. That is a stronger hold than 'Interstellar''s second weekend drop (-40.4% for $28.3m) and reasonably below 'Gravity''s (-22.6% for $43.2m). The $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi pic from Fox has been benefiting from strong reviews (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and audience reception ('A' CinemaScore), and with $108.7 million already and no major competition until the first weekend of November (when the latest James Bond film and Blue Sky's most recent come out), should end its run with a spectacular $225 million.
     $80-million animated comedy sequel 'Hotel Transylvania 2' held on to second this weekend, dropping 38.5% and grossing $20.4 million. That is a weaker hold than the 36.3% drop of the first 'Hotel Transylvania', but that is understandable as the sequel has been experiencing bigger grosses. 'Transylvania 2' has so far made an impressive $116.9 million through 17 days of release, and a finish of around $170 million is definitely in its sights.
     In a disappointing third place debut, Warner Bros. $150-million Hugh Jackman led fantasy 'Pan' brought in a terrible $15.3 million for a $4,357 per-theater average. The weekend gross is less than half of 'Tomorrowland''s $33 million debut earlier this year on Memorial Day weekend and the average is much less than that film's $8,315 take. It is also noticeably behind 2013's 'Jack the Giant Slayer', which grossed a shameful $27.2 million in its opening weekend for a $7,717 average. 'Pan' started out with $5.2 million on Friday, increased 16.2% on Saturday and grossed $6 million, and fell 30.8% on Sunday to earn $4.1 million. That puts the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.94-to-1, suggesting it could have good legs going forward. However, due to the lackluster debut, weak reviews (23% on RT) and word-of-mouth (52% Flixter score), and a crazily huge budget ($150m), 'Pan' will likely crawl past $40 million but anything much more than that would be surprising, making this a box office bomb.
     'The Intern' placed in fourth this weekend with an estimated $8.7 million take and easing 25.7% from last weekend. The PG-13 rated comedy has been holding up very nicely over the past few weekends, and with a $49.6 million cume so far, $70 million shouldn't be out of reach by now.
     $30-million Emily Blunt led R-rated crime thriller 'Sicario' rounded out the Top 5 with $7.6 million, down 37.6% from its nationwide expansion and representing a solid hold. 'Sicario' has now grossed $26.9 million total, and $40 million should be a lock.
     'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' held up nicely this weekend, with $5.4 million and a 31.2% drop. The $61-million dystopian YA adaptation has been taking in solid numbers, but is lagging behind its predecessor's pace. 'Scorch Trials' has so far made $70.8 million, and a domestic total of around $85 million is likely.
     In seventh place this weekend, TriStar's $35-million Joseph Gordon-Levitt led biographical drama 'The Walk' took in a disappointing $3.7 million weekend gross and a weak $1,482 per-theater average. 'Walk' was up 138.4% from last weekend when it debuted in 448 IMAX only locations, adding 2,061 locations to the list. Even with critical acclaim (86% on RT) and strong word-of-mouth (86% Flixter score), it failed to break out in its nationwide release. So far, 'Walk' has taken in an uneventful $6.4 million, and if it holds up well, $15 million is likely, although that is nothing to be happy about.
     $53-million Johnny Depp led gangster tale 'Black Mass' grossed $3.1 million this weekend, down an estimated 46.7%. 'Black Mass' has grossed a solid $57.6 million, although that is behind 'The Departed' and 'The Town'. However, anything above $65 million total shouldn't be considered a failure.
     Universal's 'Everest' continues to disappoint with a fourth weekend take (third weekend in wide release) of $3.07 million, down 45.5%. The $55-million hiking drama has made a lackluster $38.3 million so far, and $45 million total should still be in reach.
     'The Visit' grossed $2.5 million, down 36.5% from last weekend. The horror comedy from Universal has so far grossed $61.2 million in 31 days (or 1 month), and $68 million isn't out of the question (or at least not yet).
     'War Room' continued to stay in the Top 12, declining just 34.5% from last weekend and grossing $1.9 million. The $3-million faith-based drama has made $63.6 million, representing immense profitability. $66 million total should be likely.
     Rounding out the Top 12 was 'The Perfect Guy', which fell 41.3% and earned $1.4 million. With a stellar $54.8 million so far, $56 million is a lock.
     The Top 12 this weekend altogether grossed $109.5 million, which is down a troubling 23.3% from last weekend and down 19.3% from last year when 'Gone Girl' repeated against 'Dracula Untold', 'Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day', 'The Judge', and 'Addicted'. Next weekend sees the releases of Sony's PG-rated horror comedy 'Goosebumps', Disney's Tom Hanks led historical drama 'Bridge of Spies', Universal's R-rated gothic horror 'Crimson Peak', and Pure Flix's football drama 'Woodlawn'.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Friday Report: 'The Martian' Back on Top While 'Pan' Loses its Magic, 'The Walk' Trips on the Wire and 'Steve Jobs' Innovates

     Fox's 'The Martian' looks to take the #1 spot again this weekend as Warner Bros.' 'Pan' and TriStar's 'The Walk' both fail to make a big impact. Meanwhile, Universal's 'Steve Jobs' soars in limited release.
     In the number one spot this weekend, Ridley Scott's $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi pic 'The Martian' grossed $10.8 million on Friday, down just 40.8% from opening day and up 182.8% from Thursday. That's a weaker drop than 'Gravity' (-27.9%) but stronger than 'Interstellar' (-50.8%). Those films made $43.2 million ('Gravity') and $28.3 million ('Interstellar') in their second weekends, and with strong reviews (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ('A' on CinemaScore) as well as a performance of $82.5 million so far, anywhere between those numbers is a lock.
     In second place, $80-million animated comedy 'Hotel Transylvania 2' made an excellent $5.3 million yesterday. 'Transylvania 2' was up 307% from Thursday and down just 29.3% from last Friday. Relying on solid word-of-mouth (74% Flixter score), the sequel should finish the weekend with around $23-$25 million.
     Warner Bros.' $150-million Hugh Jackman led fantasy 'Pan' flopped with just $5.2 million on Friday. That is below the $7.7 million debut of 'Jack the Giant Slayer' and way below the $190-million sci-fi adventure 'Tomorrowland''s $9.7 million Friday gross. 'Pan' was panned by critics (23% on RT), and audiences sort of felt the same way ('B+' CinemaScore). $650k of that came from Thursday night previews, which is ironically more than 'Jack''s $400k. It was also more front-loaded than 'Tomorrowland' ($750k). If it plays like 'Tomorrowland', it will end up with $18 million. A more realistic projection is $15 million.
     'The Intern' placed in fourth with $2.7 million, up 157.2% from Thursday and down a slim 25.6% from last Friday. The $35-million Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro led comedy has grossed a strong $43.6 million in 15 days, and a third weekend of $8.5-$9 million is likely.
     'Sicario' rounded out the Top 5 with a strong $2.3 million. The $30-million Emily Blunt led R-rated crime thriller from Lionsgate dropped 47.4% from last week and up 146.5% from Thursday. 'Sicario' has so far grossed a solid $21.6 million, and $7m+ should be a lock.
     The $35-million biographical drama 'The Walk' was up 556.1% from Thursday and up 194.6% from last Friday, but only wound up in seventh place and grossing $1.2 million. 'Walk', starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and directed by Robert Zemeckis, experienced very disappointing numbers during its one-week release of IMAX only locations, and obviously failed to build significantly upon that in its nationwide release despite receiving strong reviews (86% on RT) and word-of-mouth (86% Flixter score). 'Walk' should finish the weekend with around $3.5 million, which would be a disappointment.
     Universal's $30-million Michael Fassbender led drama 'Steve Jobs' did outstanding in limited release on Friday, premiering in 4 locations in LA and NY and grossing $175k for an impressive $43,750 per-theater average. That is greater than last year's 'Birdman''s Friday performance ($135.6k for a $33,901 average). 'Birdman' also opened in four exclusive locations in LA/NY. That film went on to earn $424.4k over the weekend for a $106,099 average, and anything above that number is very likely. Expect a stellar weekend of well over $500k, which would definitely be a success.

Weekend Forecast
1. 'The Martian' - $35.4 million (-34.8%)
2. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $22.4 million (-32.5%)
3. 'Pan' - $16.4 million
4. 'The Intern' - $8.5 million (-27.7%)
5. 'Sicario' - $7.2 million (-40.9%)
-   'Steve Jobs' - $560k

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Weekend Actuals: 'The Martian' Rockets to Second Best October Opening Record, 'Sicario' Solid in Nationwide Expansion, 'The Walk' Loses Balance

     The weekend's new wide release, Ridley Scott's 'The Martian', barely missed the October opening weekend record, which is still held by 'Gravity'. Meanwhile, 'Sicario' was greeted with good numbers going into its nationwide expansion. Unfortunately, not all of the new releases was a winner, as Robert Zemeckis's 'The Walk' pretty much lost its balance going into the weekend.
     In first place, 'The Martian' took in an outstanding $54.3 million debut, which is just $1.5 million behind 'Gravity' and the October opening record. The $108-million Matt Damon led sci-fi from Fox managed a strong $14,176 per-theater average, which is just below the $15,604 average of 'Gravity'. 'Martian' started out with $18.1 million Friday, increased 22.6% on Saturday to gross $22.3 million, and declined 37.5% on Sunday to earn $13.9. million. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a very promising 3-to-1. 'Martian' obviously benefited greatly from strong reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes) and solid word-of-mouth ('A' on CinemaScore) as well as NASA's latest announcement of actual water on Mars. The novel has also been considered by many to be a best-seller, and that book's fanbase pretty much came out to see this. While it will obviously have great legs going forward, 'Martian' will probably fail to experience the strong holds 'Gravity' did back in 2013. Still, expect a domestic finish of around $220 million.
     In second place, 'Hotel Transylvania 2' exceeded expectations yet again as it had a very strong second-weekend hold. The $80-million Adam Sandler led animated comedy from Sony dipped just 31.5% from its debut to gross $33.2 million. That is a better hold than its predecessor's 36.4% decline back in 2012. Word-of-mouth ('A-' CinemaScore) has been more helpful to 'Transylvania' than critical reviews (50% on RT), and with $90.7 million in the bank already, it should continue to carry the film to a $160m+ domestic cume.
     While it had to settle for third place, 'Sicario' nevertheless posted an excellent nationwide expansion this weekend with $12.1 million, up a very impressive 607.4% from last weekend when it was playing at 59 locations. The $30-million crime thriller from Lionsgate grossed $4.3 million on Friday, increased 8.8% on Saturday to earn $4.7 million, and fell 31.9% on Sunday to make $3.2 million, putting the weekend-to-Friday ratio at a solid 2.81-to-1. 'Sicario' has so far brought in $15.1 million, and will have to hope to hold up well against upcoming adult-targeting releases like 'Steve Jobs', 'Bridge of Spies', and 'Our Brand is Crisis'. Still, it should wind up with over/under $45 million.
     Fourth place belonged to 'The Intern', a $35-million comedy starring Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro. It eased 34.1% from last weekend and grossed $11.7 million. 'Intern' continues to slightly outpace expectations as it has taken in a 10-day total of $36.6 million, and should still close with $65 million.
     Rounding out the Top 5, $61-million YA adaptation 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' fell 45.3% to earn $7.8 million. 'Scorch Trials' has been performing solidly but has also been underwhelming, as its cume is now at $63.4 million. Due to weak reviews (50% on RT), uneventful word-of-mouth ('B+' CinemaScore), and its nature as a sequel, 'Scorch Trials' should end up in the range of $76-$85 million.
     $53-million Johnny Depp led crime film 'Black Mass' grossed $5.8 million, down 47% from last weekend and bringing its cume to $52.5 million. 'Black Mass' has been front-loaded thus far in comparison to 'The Town' and 'The Departed'. A domestic finish of around $70 million should be likely.
     'Everest' clearly took a big hit from losing its IMAX screens to 'The Walk', but nobody expected a drop this big. The $55-million thriller from Universal plummeted 57.4% from its nationwide expansion, grossing a meager $5.6 million. 'Everest' has so far been unimpressive, with a domestic take of just $33.3 million. 'Everest' isn't really a flop, but it isn't a success either (or at least domestically, since it has grossed $104.1m overseas). Expect 'Everest' to close with around $45 million.
     M. Night Shyamalan's $5-million horror comedy 'The Visit' took in $4 million this weekend, down 40.5%. 'Visit' has been experiencing great holds for a film in the horror genre, and those holds have got it to a solid $57.7 million cume. If 'Visit' can continue getting respectable drops, $70 million isn't out of the question.
     'War Room' placed in ninth this weekend with $2.8 million, declining just 33.4% as well as passing the $60-million mark in the process. The $3-million production has brought in a very impressive $60.6 million in 38 days, and still looks to finish with around $68 million.
     'The Perfect Guy' rounded out the Top 10 with a $2.4 million fourth weekend and a 49.5% drop. The $12-million Sony thriller has grossed a strong $52.6 million, and $55 million should be a lock.
     In 11th place, TriStar's 'The Walk' eaked out a paltry $1.6 million this weekend for a $3,460 average. Since opening on Wednesday, the $35-million biographical drama has made a weak $1.98 million. Playing in 448 IMAX locations, 'The Walk' opened with $240.4k on Wednesday, declined 24.3% on Thursday to gross $181.9k, increased 114.6% on Friday to earn $390.3k, increased another 80.1% on Saturday to make $702.9k, and fell 33.6% to make $467k. That places the weekend-to-Friday ratio at 4.01-to-1. While that is undeniably solid, and reviews (86% on RT) and word-of-mouth (85% Flixter score) are strong, 'Walk' will have a difficult time finding balance going forward. Next weekend it looks to expand nationwide, and with a below-par performance, should end up like 'Everest' and barely make anything at all.
     Eli Roth's $5-million cannibal horror 'The Green Inferno', like I said last weekend, pretty much died out when it grossed $1.3 million, down a whopping 62.7% from its opening. With a $6 million take, it should end up with $7 million total.
     Overall, this weekend's Top 12 was up 11.7% from last weekend, making $142.7 million, and up 2.3% from last year when 'Gone Girl' narrowly beat 'Annabelle for first place. Next weekend, Warner Bros. releases 'Pan', which is pretty much a wild card due to how big-budget originals usually perform, and Universal's 'Steve Jobs', which opens in select locations in NY/LA.

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Friday Report: 'The Martian' Blasts to the Top, 'Sicario' Shoots Up a Solid Expansion, and 'The Walk' Off to a Slow Start

     It should be a pretty busy weekend as Ridley Scott's 'The Martian' and Lionsgate's 'Sicario' both experienced great numbers, while the holdovers are having respectable drops. However, one of the more notable releases, 'The Walk', got off to a very slow start on Wednesday, and should continue to underwhelm going into the weekend.
     First off, the highly-anticipated adaptation of Andy Weir's best-seller 'The Martian' grossed $18 million yesterday. That is an outstanding figure, as that bests 2013's 'Gravity' ($17.5m) and last November's 'Interstellar' ($16.9m). The $108-million sci-fi pic starring Matt Damon grossed $2.5 million in Thursday night grosses, also beating 'Gravity' ($1.4 million) in that field. 'Martian' has also garnered universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike (94% on both Rotten Tomatoes and Flixter). Its CinemaScore rating is also impressive, with an 'A' rating on the website. The big question now is whether or not it will be able to overtake 'Gravity''s October opening record. That film earned $55.8 million in its debut weekend, so a figure around that number is likely.
     Last weekend's champion 'Hotel Transylvania 2' fell 43.7% from its opening day to gross $7.5 million. The $80-million Adam Sandler led animated monster comedy from Sony, which overtook the September opening record last weekend, has so far been outpacing expectations significantly, with a stellar 8-day take of $65 million. A second weekend of around $30 million is likely.
     $30-million Emily Blunt led drug cartel thriller 'Sicario' successfully expanded nationwide on Friday to $4.3 million, representing a 666.4% increase in domestic grosses. 'Sicario' has been doing very well in limited release, and nearing its nationwide expansion predictions continuously went upwards, ranging from $11.5-$14.5 million. Right in between those numbers, which would translate into $13 million, is a lock for 'Sicario'.
     In fourth place, $35-million Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro led comedy 'The Intern' eased 42.6% from its opening to land a $3.6 million gross on Friday. 'Intern' continues to stay ahead of expectations (albeit slightly) with a $28.5 million 8-day take, and a second weekend total of around $10-$12 million should be in range.
     'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' rounded out the Top 5, grossing $2.1 million, showing a 49.1% decrease from last Friday. The $61-million Dylan O'Brien led dystopian action adventure from Fox has been performing below expectations and running behind the first 'Maze Runner', with $57.7 million in the bank so far, and an $8 million weekend should be likely.
     TriStar's 'The Walk' underperformed greatly with just $390k. Playing in 448 IMAX-only locations, the $35-million biographical drama/thriller started out with $240.4k on Wednesday, fell 24.3% on Thursday to earn $181.9k, and increased 114.4% to get its Friday gross. It has been performing WAY below the very recent 'Everest', which began on Friday with $2.3 million, although that film was playing in 97 more locations, and it didn't open on a Wednesday. Still, expect a limited release weekend of around just $1 million.

Weekend Forecast (Updated)
1. 'The Martian' - $54.9 million
2. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $30.3 million (-37.5%)
3. 'Sicario' - $13.6 million (+800%)
4. 'The Intern' - $10.9 million (-38.2%)
5. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $7.5 million (-47.6%)
-   'The Walk' - $1.2 million

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Weekend Forecast: 'The Martian' To Take the #1 Spot, Audiences Dare to Take 'The Walk' and 'Sicario' Set to Thrill

     This weekend sees the adaptation of a very popular science fiction two films should perform remarkably well while the holdovers will probably experience light drop-offs. Meanwhile, Robert Zemeckis's 'The Walk' opens in 448 IMAX-only locations.
     First, the biggest nationwide release is Ridley Scott's sci-fi novel adaptation 'The Martian', costing $108 million and starring Matt Damon. The lead star's most recent film, 'The Monuments Men', was an unexpected hit last year when it opened to $22 million and closed with an impressive $78 million. Reviews and anticipation are also very encouraging, as it has a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score and a +99% Flixter score based on over 40k users, beating last November's 'Interstellar''s reviews (72% on RT), a similar space-based epic with major lead stars and directors involved. 'Martian' also boasts impressive social media activity, with almost 94k total mentions on Twitter over the past three days. However, Facebook activity isn't nearly as enthusiastic as it has 158k likes while 'Interstellar' had 1.2 million fans and 'Gravity' had 607k. However, interest should have definitely sparked up since NASA's latest announcement that they found actual water on Mars, which could prompt moviegoers to check this film out. The marketing is going pretty smoothly as well, with the #BringHimHome and solid ads. Matt Damon's recent box office track record is pretty spotty however, with a couple hits like the previously said 'Monuments Men' and 'We Bought a Zoo' ($75.6m) while others haven't been nearly as successful like 'Green Zone' ($35.1m) and 'Elysium' ($93.1m). Director Ridley Scott has also been struggling, since his most recent films 'Exodus: Gods and Kings' ($65m) and 'The Counselor' ($17m) flopped while 'Prometheus' ($126.5m) and 'Robin Hood' ($105.3m) failed to pass their budgets ('Prometheus' had a $130m budget while 'Robin Hood' had a $200m budget). However, Fandango sales have reportedly been succeeding 'Gravity', hinting at a $55-million+ weekend, which is pretty likely for the sci-fi drama and definitely marking an improvement over 'Interstellar''s $47.5 million opening.
     Next, we have the nationwide expansion of Lionsgate's thriller 'Sicario', which has enjoyed especially lucrative incomes from limited release ($2.7m since being released on September 18). 'Sicario' so far has the highest per-theater average of any film in 2015 ($66.9k), and its limited expansion last weekend also posted an excellent average with $29.1k. Reviews (92% on RT) and word-of-mouth have obviously helped as well as respectable Twitter activity (4.8k mentions today). However, not all limited releases translate into very impressive grosses, such as 'Everest''s expansion last weekend. After making good money in its IMAX/PLF locations, many expected a $17m+ weekend gross, but ended up making just $13.2 million. 'Selma' opened to a great $571.5k in 19 locations while it ended up making $11.3 million during its nationwide release. 'Sicario' will likely avoid that fate, as 'Everest' ($13.3k) and 'Selma' ($30.1k) had much lower per-theater averages in their limited release. 'Sicario' will probably end up making over $13 million for the three-day weekend, which would represent a strong nationwide expansion.
   
Weekend Forecast
1. 'The Martian' - $57.3 million
2. 'Hotel Transylvania 2' - $30.5 million (-37.2%)
3. 'Sicario' - $13.9 million (+820%)
4. 'The Intern' - $11.6 million (-34.5%)
5. 'Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials' - $7.7 million (-46.2%)